Lake Ladoga ice phenology: Mean condition and extremes during the last 65 years     

Sergey Karetnikov  Mikhail Naumenko 《水文研究》2011,25(18):2859-2867

Winter conditions play an important role for the largest lake in Europe—Lake Ladoga. The ice cover lasts for 171 ± 3 days on average from the early November until the mid‐May. We investigated the ice regime of Lake Ladoga using a constructed ice database of aircraft surveys and satellite images. More than 1250 surveys of the lake's ice cover from 1943 to 2010 were collected and analysed to determine mean and extreme ice conditions for winters of different types of severity. The time series of ice cover percentage over the lake was plotted. On average, 18 observational ice charts were made every winter. Individual ice phenology records show considerable year‐to‐year variation. For this reason, records typically have been combined and analysed as groups (categories). Extremely cold winters were determined as winters with complete ice cover that lasts more than three months which is approximately 90% quartiles from all winters with complete ice cover. The lake surface was completely covered with ice for more than three months during 5 seasons. Extremely warm winters when the maximum ice cover was less than 70% of the lake area occurred during 5 seasons as well. A basic relationship between the winter severity as winter maximum of accumulated freezing degree‐days (AFDD) and the earlier derived Relative Ice Cover Index (RICI) was established. We have used teleconnection indices such as North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) for the period from October to May for estimation of different types of Lake Ladoga's ice conditions. The AO index in winter months and local winter maximum of AFDD explained much of the interannual variation in ice cover. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A distributed thermodynamic model for energy and mass balance computation: FEST–EWB     

Chiara Corbari  Giovanni Ravazzani  Marco Mancini 《水文研究》2011,25(9):1443-1452

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Low‐cost monitoring of snow height and thermal properties with inexpensive temperature sensors     

Dominik E. Reusser  Erwin Zehe 《水文研究》2011,25(12):1841-1852

Small, self‐recording temperature sensors were installed at several heights along a metal rod at five locations in a case study catchment. For each sensor, the presence or absence of snow cover was determined on the basis of its insulating effect and the resulting reduction of the diurnal temperature oscillations. Sensor coverage was then converted into a time series of snow height for each location. Additionally, cold content was calculated. Snow height and cold content provide valuable information for spring flood prediction. Good agreement of estimated snow heights with reference measurements was achieved and increased discharge in the study catchment coincided with low cold content of the snow cover. The results of the proposed distributed assessment of snow cover and snow state show great potential for (i) flood warning, (ii) assimilation of snow state data and (iii) modelling snowmelt process. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Observations and model estimates of diurnal water temperature dynamics in mosquito breeding sites in western Kenya     

K. P. Paaijmans  A. F. G. Jacobs  W. Takken  B. G. Heusinkveld  A. K. Githeko  M. Dicke  A. A. M. Holtslag 《水文研究》2008,22(24):4789-4801

Water temperature is an important determinant of the growth and development of malaria mosquito immatures. To gain a better understanding of the daily temperature dynamics of malaria mosquito breeding sites and of the relationships between meteorological variables and water temperature, three clear water pools (diameter × depth: 0·16 × 0·04, 0·32 × 0·16 and 0·96 × 0·32 m) were created in Kenya. Continuous water temperature measurements at various depths were combined with weather data collections from a meteorological station. The water pools were homothermic, but the top water layer differed by up to about 2 °C in temperature, depending on weather conditions. Although the daily mean temperature of all water pools was similar (27·4–28·1 °C), the average recorded difference between the daily minimum and maximum temperature was 14·4 °C in the smallest versus 7·1 °C in the largest water pool. Average water temperature corresponded well with various meteorological variables. The temperature of each water pool was continuously higher than the air temperature. A model was developed that predicts the diurnal water temperature dynamics accurately, based on the estimated energy budget components of these water pools. The air–water interface appeared the most important boundary for energy exchange processes and on average 82–89% of the total energy was gained and lost at this boundary. Besides energy loss to longwave radiation, loss due to evaporation was high; the average estimated daily evaporation ranged from 4·2 mm in the smallest to 3·7 mm in the largest water pool. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Flood forecasting with a watershed model: a new method of parameter updating     

XIAOLIU YANG  CLAUDE MICHEL 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(4):537-546

Abstract

Flood forecasting is of prime importance when it comes to reducing the possible number of lives lost to storm-induced floods. Because rainfall-runoff models are far from being perfect, hydrologists need to continuously update outputs from the rainfall-runoff model they use, in order to adapt to the actual emergency situation. This paper introduces a new updating procedure that can be combined with conceptual rainfall-runoff models for flood forecasting purposes. Conceptual models are highly nonlinear and cannot easily accommodate theoretically optimal methods such as Kalman filtering. Most methods developed so far mainly update the states of the system, i.e. the contents of the reservoirs involved in the rainfall-runoff model. The new parameter updating method proves to be superior to a standard error correction method on four watersheds whose floods can cause damage to the greater Paris area. Moreover, further developments of the approach are possible, especially along the idea of combining parameter updating with assimilation of additional data such as soil moisture data from field measurements and/or from remote sensing.  相似文献   

Modelling river water temperature using deterministic,empirical, and hybrid formulations in a Mediterranean stream     

Rafael Marcé  Joan Armengol 《水文研究》2008,22(17):3418-3430

River water temperature is a common target of water quality models at the watershed scale, owing to its principal role in shaping biogeochemical processes and in stream ecology. Usually, models include physically‐based, deterministic formulations to calculate water temperatures from detailed meteorological information, which usually comes from meteorological stations located far from the river reaches. However, alternative empirical approaches have been proposed, that usually depend on air temperature as master variable. This study explored the performance of a semidistributed water quality application modelling river water temperature in a Mediterranean watershed, using three different approaches. First, a deterministic approach was used accounting for the different heat exchange components usually considered in water temperature models. Second, an empirical approximation was applied using the equilibrium temperature concept, assuming a linear relationship with air temperature. And third, a hybrid approach was constructed, in which the temperature equilibrium concept and the deterministic approach were combined. Results showed that the hybrid approach gave the best results, followed by the empirical approximation. The deterministic formulation gave the worst results. The hybrid approach not only fitted daily river water temperatures, but also adequately modelled the daily temperature range (maximum–minimum daily temperature). Other river water features directly dependent on water temperature, such as river intrusion depth in lentic systems (i.e. the depth at which the river inflow plunges to equilibrate density differences with lake water), were also correctly modelled even at hourly time steps. However, results for the different heat fluxes between river and atmosphere were very unrealistic. Although direct evidence of discrepancies between meteorological drivers measured at the meteorological stations and the actual river microclimate was not found, the use of models including empirical or hybrid formulations depending mainly on air temperature is recommended if only meteorological data from locations far from the river reaches are available. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Long‐term trend analysis for major climate variables in the Yellow River basin*     

Z. X. Xu  J. Y. Li  C. M. Liu 《水文研究》2007,21(14):1935-1948

Some previous studies have shown that drying‐up of the lower Yellow River resulted from decreasing precipitation and excessive industrial and agricultural consumption of water from the middle and downstream regions of the Yellow River. On the basis of average air temperature, precipitation, and pan evaporation data from nearly 80 gauging stations in the Yellow River basin, the monotonic trends of major climate variables over the past several decades are analysed. The analysis was mainly made for 12 months and the annual means. The isograms for annual and typical months are given in the paper. The result shows that the average temperature in the study area exhibits an increasing trend, mainly because of the increase of temperature in December, January and February. The largest trend is shown in December and the smallest is in August. There are 65 of 77 stations exhibiting a downward trend for annual precipitation. In all seasons except summer, there is a similar trend in the upstream region of the Yellow River, south of latitude 35°N. It is interesting to note that the pan evaporation has decreased in most areas of the Yellow River basin during the past several decades. April and July showed the greatest magnitude of slope, and the area from Sanmenxia to Huayuankou as well as the Yiluo River basin exhibited the strongest declining trend. The conclusion is that the decreasing pan evaporation results from complex changes of air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed, and both climate change and human activities have affected the flow regime of the Yellow River during the past several decades. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

有限尺度李雅普诺夫指数与海表温度梯度相关性的初步分析     

曹蕾  张杰  杨俊钢  周超杰  孙伟富  崔伟 《海洋科学进展》2020,38(1):130-139

为了探究海表温度和海面高度之间的瞬时相关性,介绍了一种卫星测高数据的拉格朗日分析指数--有限尺度李雅普诺夫指数(Finite Size Lyapunov Exponent,FSLE),以黑潮延伸体区域的涡旋和南大西洋的亚南极锋为例,通过对观测、模式结果和融合产品结果的分析,探讨了该指数与海表温度梯度(Sea Surface Temperature Gradient,SSTG)之间的相关性。比较FSLE图像和SSTG图像发现,FSLE与SSTG均呈丝状结构,对海洋表层水体结构描述具有一致性,尤其在温度梯度大和地转流强的区域更为一致。二者的一致性要远好于其他常用方式,比如全流速、OW参数涡旋识别方法和Winding-Angle涡旋识别方法。不同区域FSLE与SSTG之间的相关性表现不同,黑潮延伸体区域相关系数存在显著的季节变化,而南大西洋亚南极锋区域季节内变化突出。  相似文献   

EXERCISE IN DOWNSCALING ON SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONG CHINESE COAST     

练树民  王凯  崔茂常  EduardoZorita 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2000,18(2)

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The response of CO2 flux to rain pulses at a saline desert     

Jie Ma  Xin‐Jun Zheng  Yan Li 《水文研究》2012,26(26):4029-4037

As the substantial component of the ecosystem respiration, soil CO₂ flux is strongly influenced by infrequent and unpredictable precipitation in arid region. In the current study, we investigated the response of soil CO₂ flux to rain pulses at a saline desert in western China. Soil CO₂ flux was measured continuously during the whole growing season of 2009 at six sites. We found that there were remarkable changes in amplitude or diurnal patterns of soil CO₂ flux induced by rainfall events: from bimodal before rain to a single peak after that. Further analysis indicated that there is a significant linear relationship (P < 0.001) between soil CO₂ flux and soil temperature (T_soil). However, a hysteresis between the waveform of diurnal course of CO₂ flux and T_soil was observed: with soil CO₂ flux always peaked earlier than T_soil. Furthermore, a double exponential decay function was fitted to the soil CO₂ flux after rainfall, and total carbon (C) releases were estimated by numerical integration for rainfall events. The relative enhancement and total C release, in association with the rain pulses, was linearly related to the amount of precipitation. According to the size and frequency of rainfall events, the total amount of C release induced by rain pulses was computed as much as 7.88 g C·m^–2 in 2009, equivalent to 10.25% of gross primary production. These results indicated that rain pulses played a significant role in the carbon budget of this saline desert ecosystem, and the size of them was a good indicator of rain‐induced flux enhancement. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献