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41.
Optimal deflection of NEOs en route of collision with the Earth 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Recently, a method for the n-body analysis of the velocity change required to deflect a hazardous near-Earth object (NEO) was presented by Carusi et al. [Carusi, A., Valsecchi, G.B., D'Abramo, G., Boattini A., 2002. Icarus 159, 417-422]. We extent this method in order to optimize the velocity change vector instead of its along-track magnitude. From an application of both methods to a fictitious NEO we find Carusi's parallel approach to be reasonable for phases of unperturbed two-body motion. But, for orbit phases inhering third-body perturbations, i.e., for planetary close approaches or prior to a collision, the results obtained from the new method show the radial component of deflection impulse to play a major role. We show that a fivefold greater efficiency can be achieved by a deflection impulse being non-parallel to orbital velocity. The new method is applied to two possible 99942 Apophis impact trajectories in order to provide constraints for future Apophis deflection mission analysis. 相似文献
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We present results from a new simulation code that accounts for the evolution of the reservoirs of carbon dioxide on Mars, from its early years to the present. We establish a baseline model parameter set that produces results compatible with the present (i.e., Patm?6.5 mbar with permanent CO2 ice cap) for a wide range of initial inventories. We find that the initial inventory of CO2 broadly determines the evolutionary course of the reservoirs of CO2. The reservoirs include the atmosphere, ice cap, adsorbed CO2 in the regolith, and carbonate rocks. We track the evolution of the free inventory: the atmosphere, ice cap and regolith. Simulations begin at 4.53 Gyr before present with a rapid loss of free inventory to space in the early Noachian. Models that assume a relatively small initial inventory (?5 bar) have pronounced minima in the free inventory of CO2 toward the end of the Noachian. Under baseline parameters, initial inventories below ∼4.5 bar result in a catastrophic loss of the free inventory to space. The current free inventory would be then determined by the balance between outgassing, sputtering losses and chemical weathering following the end of the late bombardment. We call these “thin” models. They generically predict small current free inventories in line with expectations of a small present CO2 ice cap. For “thick” models, with initial inventories ?5 bar, a surplus of 300-700 mbar of free CO2 remains during the late-Noachian. The histories of free inventory in time for thick models tend to converge within the last 3.5 Gyr toward a present with an ice cap plus atmospheric inventory of about 100 mbar. For thick models, the convergence is largely due to the effects of chemical weathering, which draws down higher free inventories more rapidly than the low. Thus, thick models have ?450 mbar carbonate reservoirs, while thin models have ?200 mbar. Though both thick and thin scenarios can reproduce the current atmospheric pressure, the thick models imply a relatively large current CO2 ice cap and thin models, little or none. While the sublimation of a massive cap at a high obliquity would create a climate swing of greenhouse warming for thick models, under the thin model, mean temperatures and pressures would be essentially unaffected by increases in obliquity. 相似文献
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GPS/LEO掩星观测的变分同化技术 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
在简单介绍GPS/LEO掩星探测大气的发展历史和科学意义之后,详细阐述了反演的基本原理;分析了标准反演中存在的问题,并说明一维变分同化(1DVAR)在反演方法中的重要性;给出了一维变分同化中价值函数的求解,以及各种同化因子;简单介绍了对当前气象学中普遍使用的四维变分同化(4DVAR);重点讨论了各种同化方法,以及使用各种同化因子的优缺点。最后,通过CHAMP卫星的观测实例分析,验证了GPS数据在数值天气预报(NWP)中的作用,以及相对于标准反演法一维变分对气象要素的改进。 相似文献
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