Seasonality and magnitude of floods in Switzerland under future climate change          下载免费PDF全文

N. Köplin  B. Schädler  D. Viviroli  R. Weingartner 《水文研究》2014,28(4):2567-2578

The flood seasonality of catchments in Switzerland is likely to change under climate change because of anticipated alterations of precipitation as well as snow accumulation and melt. Information on this change is crucial for flood protection policies, for example, or regional flood frequency analysis. We analysed projected changes in mean annual and maximum floods of a 22‐year period for 189 catchments in Switzerland and two scenario periods in the 21st century based on an ensemble of climate scenarios. The flood seasonality was analysed with directional statistics that allow assessing both changes in the mean date a flood occurs as well as changes in the strength of the seasonality. We found that the simulated change in flood seasonality is a function of the change in flow regime type. If snow accumulation and melt is important in a catchment during the control period, then the anticipated change in flood seasonality is most pronounced. Decreasing summer precipitation in the scenarios additionally affects the flood seasonality (mean date of flood occurrence) and leads to a decreasing strength of seasonality, that is a higher temporal variability in most cases. The magnitudes of mean annual floods and more clearly of maximum floods (in a 22‐year period) are expected to increase in the future because of changes in flood‐generating processes and scaled extreme precipitation. Southern alpine catchments show a different signal, though: the simulated mean annual floods decrease in the far future, that is at the end of the 21st century. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Spatio‐temporal patterns of major ions in urban stormwater under cold climate          下载免费PDF全文

Maija Taka  Teemu Kokkonen  Kirsi Kuoppamäki  Tero Niemi  Nora Sillanpää  Marjo Valtanen  Lassi Warsta  Heikki Setälä 《水文研究》2017,31(8):1564-1577

Multiple natural and anthropogenic factors affect urban water chemistry. However, little is known about the abundance or temporal variation of major ions in urban runoff. This study explores the spatio‐temporal variation of major dissolved ions (Na, K, Ca, Mg, Cl, NO₃, and SO₄) and total dissolved solids (TDS) in cold climate urban stormwater. Three watersheds with varying degrees of urban land use intensity and imperviousness (from 36% to 66%) in Helsinki, Finland, were continuously monitored for 5 years using an automated sampling procedure to obtain stormwater discharge and ion concentrations and, thus, loadings. High‐resolution datasets, including long‐term continuous discharge, both measured and simulated (using Storm Water Management Model), and automatic water quality sampling enabled the accurate calculation of loads of ions and TDS. Water quality was related to explanatory watershed characteristics (e.g., watershed physiography and sampling time) using hierarchical clustering, nonmetric multidimensional scaling, and hierarchical partitioning methods. Urban land use contributed to increased ion concentrations and loads year‐round. This study highlights how stormwater ion concentrations are elevated across seasons, indicating chronic pollution phenomena. The greatest loads occurred during summer (except for Na and Cl), while the highest variation in loads was observed in autumn. Significant clusters among ions were found in the hierarchical cluster analysis, suggesting similar temporal patterns and sources for the ions in each cluster. The importance of land use was evident, though in the most urbanized watershed, concentrations were not linked to any of the investigated watershed characteristics. Based on our results, only Na and Cl are manageable by alternative winter road antiskid practices, whereas other ions resulted from diffuse pollution sources, being therefore more difficult to control. Finally, this study contributes to an increased understanding of the temporal and spatial patterns of ions in stormwater and highlights the need for consistent time series data for ion monitoring under cold climatic conditions in order to enable reliable estimates of their loads to adjacent water bodies. Finally, year‐round stormwater treatment is highly recommended.  相似文献   

Modelling interannual variations in catchment evapotranspiration considering vegetation and climate seasonality using the Budyko framework     

Yaqin Wang  Yi Luo  Muhammad Shafeeque  Meilin Zhou  Hongyu Li 《水文研究》2021,35(4):e14118

The Budyko framework is an efficient tool for investigating catchment water balance, focusing on the effects of seasonal changes in climate (S) and vegetation cover (M) on catchment evapotranspiration (ET). However, the effects of vegetation seasonality on ET remain largely unknown. The present study explored these effects by modelling interannual variations in ET considering vegetation and climate seasonality using the Budyko framework. Reconstructed 15-day GIMMS NDVI_3g timeseries data from 1982 to 2015 were used to estimate M and extract the relative duration of the vegetation growing season (GL) in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). To characterize S, seasonal variations in precipitation and potential ET were extracted using a Gaussian algorithm. Analysis of the observed datasets for 19 catchments revealed that interannual variation in the catchment parameter ϖ (in Fuh's equation) was significantly and positively correlated with M and GL. Conversely, ϖ was significantly but negatively correlated with S. Furthermore, stepwise linear regression was used to calibrate the empirical formula of ϖ for these three dimensionless parameters. Following validation, based on observations in the remaining 11 catchments, ϖ was integrated into Fuh's equation to accurately estimate annual ET. Over 79% subcatchments showed an upward trend (0.9 mm yr⁻¹), whereas fewer than 21% subcatchments showed a downward trend (−0.5 mm yr⁻¹) across YRB. In the central region of the middle reach, ET increased with increased M, prolonged GL, and decreased S, whereas in the source region of YRB, ET decreased with decreased M and shortened GL. Our study provides an alternative method to estimate interannual ET in ungauged catchments and offers a novel perspective to investigate hydrological responses to vegetation and climate seasonality in the long-term.  相似文献   

Assessment of a seasonal calibration technique using multiple objectives in rainfall–runoff analysis          下载免费PDF全文

H.S. Kim  S. Lee 《水文研究》2014,28(4):2159-2173

The hydrological response characteristics for the catchments in the Republic of Korea are related to a strong seasonality in the rainfall and streamflow distributions with distinct wet and dry seasons. This study aims to improve a model's ability to predict streamflows by minimizing information loss from the available data during the calibration processes. This study assesses calibration techniques incorporating a multi‐objective approach and seasonal calibration. The lumped conceptual rainfall–runoff model IHACRES was applied to selected catchments in Korea. The model was calibrated based on three different methods: the classical approach using a single performance statistic (the single‐objective method), the multi‐objective approach (the multi‐objective method (I)) and the combined approach incorporating multi‐objective and seasonal calibrations (the multi‐objective method (II)). In the multi‐objective approach, the ‘best fit’ models in the calibration period were selected by considering the trade‐offs among multiple statistics. During seasonal calibration, the calibration period was divided into four seasons to investigate whether these calibrated models can improve the model performance with regards to seasonal climate, rainfall and streamflow distributions. The adequacy of the three different calibration methods was assessed through comparison of the variability of model performance in high and low flows and water balance for the entire period and for each seasonal period. The multi‐objective methods yielded more accurate and consistent predictions for high and low flows and water balance simultaneously, compared to the single‐objective method. In particular, the multi‐objective method (II) produces the best modelling capacity to capture the non‐stationary nature of the hydrological response under different climate conditions. The pattern of improvement with the multi‐objective method (II) was generally consistent through the seasons, with the exception of the winter period in the regions partially affected by snow. This exception is due to a potential limitation of the IHACRES model in reflecting the impact of snow on the catchment hydrology. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Mid‐elevation ecosystems of Panama: future uncertainties in light of past global climatic variability          下载免费PDF全文

Alexander Correa‐Metrio  Maria I. Vélez  Jaime Escobar  Jeannine‐Marie St‐Jacques  Minerva López‐Pérez  Jason Curtis  Jason Cosford 《第四纪科学杂志》2016,31(7):731-740

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不同地转速度对季风分布及强度影响的数值模拟     

刘冬  李建平 《大气科学》2011,35(4):667-682

本文利用风场标准化季节变率指数来探讨不同地转速度或自转周期下,全球季风的水平和垂直分布特征以及其随自转周期的不同而发生的规律性变化,同时探讨了经、纬向风的季节反向对季风区显著分布的影响.此外,定义一个新的表征季节变化相对大小的指数来探讨不同自转周期下,风场季节变化相对于地球自转周期条件下的强度的相对大小.结果表明,在水...  相似文献   

Revisiting the Climatology of Atmospheric Blocking in the Northern Hemisphere     

Ho Nam CHEUNG  ZHOU Wen  Hing Yim MOK  Man Chi WU  Yaping SHAO 《大气科学进展》2013,30(2):397-410

In addition to the occurrence of atmospheric blocking,the climatology of the characteristics of blocking events,including duration,intensity,and extension,in four seasons over the Northern Hemisphere was analyzed for the period 1950-2009.The seasonality and spatial variations of these characteristics were studied according to their longitudinal distributions.In general,there were sharp discrepancies in the blocking characteristics between winter and summer,and these differences were more prominent over the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans.The blocking not only occurred more frequently but also underwent stronger amplification in winter;likewise,the blocking occurred less frequently and underwent weaker amplification in summer.There are very strong interrelationships among different blocking characteristics,suggesting that they are supported by similar physical factors.In addition,the relationship between blocking over different regions and East Asian circulation was examined.Ural-Siberia is a major blocking formation region in all seasons that may exert a downstream impact on East Asia.The impact is generally weak in summer,which is due to its lower intensity and smaller duration.However,the extratropical circulation over East Asia in summer can be disturbed persistently by the frequent occurrence of blocking over the Asian continent or the Western Pacific.In particular,the blocking frequency over the Western Pacific significantly increased during the study period.This climatological information provides a background for studying the impact of blocking on East Asian circulation under both present and future climate conditions.  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal variability of flood seasonality in Wales     

Neil Macdonald  Ian D. Phillips  Gareth Mayle 《水文研究》2010,24(13):1806-1820

High‐magnitude floods across Europe within the last decade have resulted in the widespread reassessment of flood risk; this coupled with the introduction of the Water Framework Directive (2000) has increased the need for a detailed understanding of seasonal variability in flood magnitude and frequency. Mean day of flood (MDF) and flood seasonality were calculated for Wales using 30 years of gauged river‐flow records (1973–2002). Noticeable regional variations in timing and length of flood season are evident, with flooding occurring earlier in small catchments draining higher elevations in north and mid‐west Wales. Low‐altitude regions in West Wales exposed to westerly winds experience flooding during October–January, while large eastern draining catchments experience later flooding (January–February). In the northeast and mid‐east regions December–January months experience the greatest number of floods, while the southeast has a slightly longer flood season (December–February), with a noticeable increase in January floods. Patterns obtained from MDF data demonstrate their effectiveness and use in analysing regional patterns in flood seasonality, but catchment‐specific determinants, e.g. catchment wetness, size and precipitation regime are important factors in flood seasonality. Relatively strong correlations between precipitation and flood activity are evident in Wales, with a poorer relationship between flooding and weather types and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Seasonality and causes of the Yellow Sea Warm Current   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

崔茂常  胡敦欣莫军 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2004,22(3):265-270

To study the seasonality and causes of the Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC) in detail, rotated empirical orthogonal function (REOF) and extended associate pattern analysis are adopted with daily sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) datasets covering 1126 days from American Navy Experimental Real-Time East Asian Seas Ocean Nowcast System in the present paper. Results show that in the Yellow and East China Seas, the YSWC is a mean barotropic flow as compensation of winter-monsoon-driven surface currents, which has been directly observed. When East Asia winter monsoon weakens, so do the meridional pressure gradient of the surface seawater and the YSWC, while the transversal pressure gradient changes rather slowly that results in the YSWC left turning. In addition, there is southward mean flow compensation of summer-monsoon-driven surface currents, which actually was also directly ob-served.  相似文献   

Seasonality of modern pollen and sediment deposition in an estuarine context: the Severn Estuary Levels,southwest England     

J. R. L. Allen  Petra Dark 《第四纪科学杂志》2008,23(3):213-228

Recent sedimentological and palynological research on subfossil Holocene banded sediments from the Severn Estuary Levels suggested seasonality of deposition, registered by variations in mineral grain‐size and pollen assemblages between different parts of the bands. Here we provide data that strengthen this interpretation from sampling of modern sediments and pollen deposition on an active mudflat and saltmarsh on the margin of the Severn Estuary, and comparison with a vegetation survey and contemporary records of climate, river and tidal regimes. The results of grain‐size analysis indicate deposition of comparatively coarse‐grained silts during the relatively cool and windy conditions of winter and comparatively fine‐grained sediments during relatively warm and calm summer months. Pollen analysis demonstrates the significance of long‐term storage of pollen grains and fern spores in the estuarine waterbody, superimposed on which seasonal variations in pollen inputs from local and regional vegetation remain detectable. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献