The Combined Effect of Initial Error and Model Error on ENSO Prediction Uncertainty Generated by the Zebiak-Cane Model          下载免费PDF全文

ZHAO Peng  DUAN Wan-Suo 《大气和海洋科学快报》2014,(5):447-452

Initial errors and model errors are the source of prediction errors. In this study, the authors compute the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP）-type initial errors and nonlinear forcing singular vector （NFSV）- type tendency errors of the Zebiak-Cane model with respect to El Nifio events and analyze their combined effect on the prediction errors for E1 Nino events. The CNOP- type initial error （NFSV-type tendency error） represents the initial errors （model errors） that have the largest effect on prediction uncertainties for E1 Nifio events under the perfect model （perfect initial conditions） scenario. How- ever, when the CNOP-type initial errors and the NFSV- type tendency errors are simultaneously considered in the model, the prediction errors caused by them are not am- plified as the authors expected. Specifically, the predic- tion errors caused by the combined mode of CNOP-type initial errors and NFSV-type tendency errors are a little larger than those caused by the NFSV-type tendency er- rors. This fact emphasizes a need to investigate the opti- mal combined mode of initial errors and tendency errors that cause the largest prediction error for E1 Nifio events.  相似文献   

低精度INS／GPS组合导航大方位失准角初始对准方案     

吴松羽  王可东 《全球定位系统》2014,(6):1-5

在低精度MEMS-IMU和GPS组合导航中,由于IMU的精度问题,无法通过传统的解析方法实现方位失准角的粗对准,造成了大方位失准角问题,从而导致系统的强非线性。通过变换状态量,用方位失准角的两个三角函数代替方位失准角作为状态量,建立了新的线性系统方程。用改进奇异值分解法对新对准系统进行可观测度分析,完成了车载导航试验,结果表明：本初始对准方案在低精度的组合导航中具有很好的对准精度和对准速度。  相似文献   

A Model Simulation of Future Oceanic Conditions along the British Columbia Continental Shelf. Part I: Forcing Fields and Initial Conditions     

J. Morrison  W. Callendar  D. Masson  I. Fine 《大气与海洋》2014,52(1):1-19

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茶尖岭矿区M28异常分布区银多金属矿源条件浅析     

孙雪峰  曹希英  关晓军  齐文斌 《吉林地质》2014,(1):41-44

茶尖岭矿区M28异常分布区银多金属矿的形成与燕山期中酸性浅成岩浆岩有空间、成因联系,属于浅成热液矿床中的矽卡岩型成因。银多金属的成矿是热液活动、构造作用的产物,根据地层中元素的初始含量及矿源岩来阐明该异常分布区银多金属矿源条件。初步分析认为,板岩类及闪长玢岩为M28异常分布区的矿源岩,该异常分布区地层中银多金属元素的初始含量较高,该异常分布区银多金属成矿的矿源条件比较好。  相似文献   

高轨空间碎片的观测模拟     

杨远贵  冯和生  郭锐  张云成 《天文研究与技术》2004,1(1):69-74

对高轨空间碎片进行了观测模拟。在观测模拟中，分别选取南京和云南两个观测站；采用2种跟踪方式：跟踪恒星和跟踪卫星；对于同一地理经度上的同步卫星进行了观测；提供了发现新目标的方法；并给出了新目标的初轨。这为我国空间碎片的数据库的建立作了有益的尝试，对于卫星和航天器的飞行安全具有特别重要的意义。  相似文献   

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κ���  ��һ��  �ս��� 《大地测量与地球动力学》2014,34(5):17-20

??????M8.0????????????????????С???????????????????о???????????λ????????????????????ν???ие???????????????????1??M8.0??????????????????????????????????????С????????????????????????????????????????????????42°????????????????????????????20 km??2?????????????????????????????????????10 km?????????????????С??????????????????????????????????????????????????????λ?????????7 km??3??2??14??
ML3.7?????????????????93°?????????????????????С??????????????????????????????????2???????￡????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????4??2??28??ML3.8?????????λ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????￡????????????  相似文献   

Long‐term hydrologic simulation using SCS‐CN‐based improved soil moisture accounting procedure     

Dilip G. Durbude  Manoj K. Jain  Surendra K. Mishra 《水文研究》2011,25(4):561-579

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The tripole: A new coherent vortex structure of incompressible two-dimensional flows     

Lorenzo M. Polvani  Xavier J. Carton 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(1-4):87-102

Abstract

Using a contour dynamical algorithm, we have found rotating tripolar V-state solutions for the inviscid Euler equations in two-dimensions. We have studied their geometry as a function of their physical parameters. Their stability was investigated with the aid of contour surgery, and most of the states were found to be stable. Under finite-amplitude perturbations, tripoles are shown to either fission into two asymmetric dipoles or to evolve into a shielded axisymmetric vortex, demonstrating the existence of two new ‘‘reversible transitions'’ between topologically distinct coherent vortex structures. These dynamical results are confirmed by pseudo-spectral simulations, with which we also show how continuous tripolar long-lived coherent vortex structures can be generated in a variety of ways.  相似文献   

雷州话与普通话声母声调对比研究     

朱月明 《广东海洋大学学报》2006,26(5):112-115

雷州话声母系统与普通话声母系统相比较,双唇音、舌尖中音、舌根音基本相同;雷州话多了一个双唇音,一个喉头音;普通话多了一个唇齿音;普通话有舌尖前音、舌尖后音、舌面音三组声母,而雷州话只有一组类似普通话舌尖前音的声母(有专家认为是舌叶音),这是雷州话声母系统和普通话声母系统的差异,也是雷州人学习普通话的障碍。雷州话声调系统与普通话声调系统相比较,在调类及调值上相差极大。但重要的还是雷州话有入声,普通话则没有。通过比较研究雷州话与普通话声母声调方面的异同,发现雷州人学习普通话的难点,从而对症下药,发挥正迁移、克服负迁移,纠正“雷式普通话”这样的语音异化现象。  相似文献   

Nearby Protoclusters as Laboratories for Understanding Star Formation on Galactic Scales     

Philippe André 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2002,281(1-2):51-66

Detailed studies of nearby cluster-forming molecular clouds can help us understand the physical processes by which most stars form in galaxies. I review recent advances made on this subject. Submillimeter observations of nearby protoclusters suggest that stars are generally built from finite, detached reservoirs of mass inside molecular cloud cores, and point to a cloud fragmentation origin for the IMF. Much progress in this field will come from future large submillimeter instruments such as Herschel and ALMA. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献