Research on runoff variations based on wavelet analysis and wavelet neural network model: A case study of the Heihe River drainage basin (1944?2005)     

WANG Jun  MENG Jijun 《地理学报》2007,17(3):327-338

The Heihe River drainage basin is one of the endangered ecological regions of China. The shortage of water resources is the bottleneck, which constrains the sustainable development of the region. Many scholars in China have done researches concerning this problem. Based on previous researches, this paper analyzed characteristics, tendencies, and causes of annual runoff variations in the Yingluo Gorge (1944–2005) and the Zhengyi Gorge (1954–2005), which are the boundaries of the upper reaches, the middle reaches, and the lower reaches of the Heihe River drainage basin, by wavelet analysis, wavelet neural network model, and GIS spatial analysis. The results show that: (1) annual runoff variations of the Yingluo Gorge have principal periods of 7 years and 25 years, and its increasing rate is 1.04 m3/s·10y; (2) annual runoff variations of the Zhengyi Gorge have principal periods of 6 years and 27 years, and its decreasing rate is 2.25 m3/s·10y; (3) prediction results show that: during 2006–2015, annual runoff variations of the Yingluo and Zhengyi gorges have ascending tendencies, and the increasing rates are respectively 2.04 m3/s·10y and 1.61 m3/s·10y; (4) the increase of annual runoff in the Yingluo Gorge has causal relationship with increased temperature and precipitation in the upper reaches, and the decrease of annual runoff in the Zhengyi Gorge in the past decades was mainly caused by the increased human consumption of water resources in the middle researches. The study results will provide scientific basis for making rational use and allocation schemes of water resources in the Heihe River drainage basin.  相似文献   

近40年高层温度场和高度场的时空变化特征   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

毕云  钱永甫 《南京气象学院学报》2001,24(1):59-65

用4种方式对NCEP／NCAR全球再分析资料中1958－1997年300hPa月均温度、100hPa月均高度资料序列进行对比分析，发现300hPa温度资料可靠性高于100hPa高度资料；详细考察近40a高层温度场、高度场的时空变化特征，并通过Morlet小波进一步分析两要素场的周期变化发现，温度场和高度场的EOF第1模态具有很好的空间整体民生和明显的年际和年代际变化，以10a左右和3a左右的周期为主要周期。  相似文献   

Seismic anisotropy beneath Tibet: evidence for eastward extrusion of the Tibetan lithosphere?   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

J. Lav    J.P. Avouac  R. Lacassin  P. Tapponnier  J.P. Montagner 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1996,140(1-4):83-96

Strong seismic anisotropy beneath Tibet has recently been reported from the study of SKS shear wave splitting. The fast split waves are generally polarized in an easterly direction, close to the present day direction of motion of the Tibetan crust relative to stable Eurasia, as deduced from Holocene slip rates on the major active faults in and around Tibet. This correlation may be taken to suggest that the whole Tibetan lithosphere is being extruded in front of indenting India and that the anisotropic layer is the deforming asthenosphere, that accommodates the motion of the Tibetan lithosphere relative to the fixed mantle at depth. Uncertainties about this motion are at present too large to bring unambiguous support to that view. Assuming that this view is correct however, a simple forward model is used to compute theoretical delay times as a function of the thickness of the anisotropic layer. The observed delay times would require a 50–100 km thick anisotropic layer beneath south-central Tibet and an over 200 km thick layer beneath north-central Tibet, where particularly hot asthenosphere has been inferred. This study suggests that the asthenospheric anisotropy due to present absolute block motion might be dominant under actively deforming continents.  相似文献   

Some features of the arid area variations over India: 1871–1984     

Nityanand Singh  S. S. Mulye  G. B. Pant 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1992,138(1):135-150

Spatial variability of the annual rainfall over drier regions of India is studied by examining the variations in the arid areas. A long period (1871–1984) arid area series has been prepared for the entire country, including the two broad subregions of North India and Peninsular India, using annual rainfall data from 306 well distributed stations. Following an objectively determined criterion based on rainfall amount alone, the yearly area under arid conditions is obtained by totalling areas which received annual rainfall totals less than 560 mm. The interannual variability of the arid area series is large and its distribution is highly right-skewed, demonstrating large spatial variations in the annual rainfall over India. Statistical tests do not suggest any significant long-term trend in the arid area series, but persistently low values of the arid area after 1941 are noteworthy. Implications for the study of risk analysis and assessment of drought and desertification processes are discussed.  相似文献   

青藏高原近50年来气温的年代际变化   总被引：93，自引：27，他引：66  

蔡英  李栋梁  汤懋苍  白重瑗 《高原气象》2003,22(5):464-470

根据青藏高原及周边地区一百多个气象台站的月平均气温资料,利用统计方法,分析了近50年来气温的年代际变化。结果表明：整个高原地区温度变化可分为6个不同的区域。在时间演变上可划分出相对高温时段(1963年以前)、相对低温时段(1963—1987年)和另一个相对高温时段(1987年以后)。还从天文因素、地球系统各圈层及气候系统内各因子相互作用和相互制约出发,探讨了引起高原气候变化的可能原因。  相似文献   

Topex/Poseidon Altimetry and Dynamics of the Ocean-Atmosphere System     

Milan Burša  Jan Kouba  Viliam Vatrt  Vojtěch Vítek  Marie Vojtíšková 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2000,44(1):1-12

The T/P altimeter data 1993 – 1997 (cycles 11 – 194) has been analyzed with emphases on seasonal variations in sea surface topography (SST). The amplitude of the annual variations amounted to (5.9±0.3) mm when inverted barometer (IB) corrections were applied and (2.0±0.4) mm without any IB corrections. The amplitude of the semi-annual variations in SST was small with IB corrections applied: (0.6±0.3) mm. However, when no IB corrections were applied, it was (1.8±0.4) mm, i.e. the semiannual variations are at the same level as the annual variations with no IB corrections. The phase angle offset of the annual term has shifted by about 180° when IB correction was applied. The dynamics of the ocean-atmosphere system is discussed and it is concluded that it could, at least partly, be responsible for the above observed effects.  相似文献   

现代冲积河流的河型空间转化模式探讨   总被引：11，自引：2，他引：9  

倪晋仁  王随继  王光谦 《沉积学报》2000,18(1):1-6

论述了现代冲积河流系统中常见河型的自然分布及转化特征,归纳了河型从上游向下游发生空间转化的 5种主要模式。这些河型转化模式发生的相对频率是不同的,其中从辫状河流向曲流河流转化的发生频率最大。文中通过具体实例总结了这些转化模式分别发生时的主要影响因素。  相似文献   

Seasonal variations and mechanism for environmental control of NEE of CO_2 concerning the Potentilla fruticosa in alpine shrub meadow of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau     

《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2006,(Z2)

The study by the eddy covariance technique in the alpine shrub meadow of the Qing-hai-Tibet Plateau in 2003 and 2004 showed that the net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE) exhibited noticeable diurnal and annual variations, with more distinct daily changes during the warmer seasons. The CO2 emission of the shrub ecosystem culminated in April and September while the CO2 absorption capacity reached a maximum in July and August. The absorbed carbon dioxide during the two consecutive years was 231.4 and 274.8 g CO2·m-2 respectively, yielding an average of 253.1 gCO2·m-2 per year: that accounts for a large proportion of absorbed CO2 in the region. Obviously, the diurnal carbon flux was negatively related to temperature, radiation and other atmospheric factors. Still, minute discrepancies in kurtosis and duration of carbon emission/absorption were detected between 2003 and 2004. It was found that the CO2 flux in the daytime was similarly affected by photosynthetic photon flux density in both years. Temperature appears to be the most important determinant of CO2 flux: specifically, the high temperature during the plant growing season inhibits the carbon absorption capacity. One potential explanation is that soil respiration is enhanced under such condition. Analysis of biomass revealed that the annual net carbon fixed capacity of aboveground and belowground biomass was 544.0 in 2003 and 559.4 g Cm"2 in 2004, which coincided with the NEE absorption capacity (63.1 g C·m-2 in 2003 and 74.9 g C·m-2 in 2004) in the corresponding plant growing season.  相似文献   

和田市近40年蒸发量的变化特征   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

买买提·阿布都拉  玉苏甫·阿布都拉  刘海涛  帕提曼 《气象》2006,32(8):92-96

利用和田市气象站1961-2000年20cm口径蒸发量资料，对蒸发量的年、季、月变化趋势、年代际变化特征、突变和周期等气候变化作了较全面分析。结果表明：40年来各季、月蒸发量呈现不同程度的上升趋势，年蒸发量以48．52mm／10a的倾向率增多，偏多趋势主要表现在春季、秋季，其中5月份蒸发量偏多趋势最明显。年蒸发量在20世纪60年代为相对偏少期，80年代为相对偏多期。采用累积距平曲线和标准Morlet小波方法对年总蒸发量进行突变检验和周期分析表明，年蒸发量在1978年发生一次突变，蒸发量变化具有4～6年、11年和22年左右的年周期变化。  相似文献   

江苏气温长期变化趋势及年代际变化空间差异分析   总被引：22，自引：1，他引：22  

周晓兰  高庆九  邓自旺  陈海山 《南京气象学院学报》2006,29(2):196-202

根据江苏省60个气象站1961-2001年的逐月气温资料，研究了江苏气温的长期变化趋势和年代际变化特征的空间差异。结果表明：1）近40a来江苏省年平均气温升高了约1℃，其中冬季3个月（12月一次年2月）升温最明显，夏季7、8月降温明显。各季节和年平均气温年代际变化具有一定的相似性，基本上是20世纪60年代有降低趋势，70年代到80年代前期趋势不明显，80年代后期和90年代气温快速升高，因此，年、春、秋、冬季最高温度出现在90年代。其中夏季气温在90年代后期又有所下降，夏季最高出现在60年代。2）长期变化趋势和年代际变化在空间上也有一定的差异，这种差异主要表现在温度变化幅度上，春、秋、冬和年平均气温在全省都是升高的，其中苏南和江苏北部的徐连地区春、冬季和年平均气温升高最明显，秋季苏南地区升温最明显；夏季大部分地区气温有下降趋势，其中东部沿海和西南部降温最明显，而北部部分地区则有弱的升温趋势。  相似文献