中国气候和海面变化及其趋势和影响的初步研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

施雅风  范建华 《地球科学进展》1991,6(4):18-23

本文从(1)中国历史气候研究,(2)中国海面变化及其影响研究,(3)微量气体、云辐射及气候数值模拟研究,(4)气候变化对西北、华北水资源影响研究等四个方面全面回顾了重大项目“中国气候和海面变化及其趋势和影响的初步研究”三年来的研究进展,给出了若干新的重要结论。  相似文献   

全球冰缘地貌综合区划初探     

朱诚 《冰川冻土》1992,14(2):160-167

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Late Quaternary changes in surface water and deep water masses of the Nordic Seas and north-eastern North Atlantic: a review     

Michael Sarnthein  Alexander V. Altenbach 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1995,84(1):89-107

Quantitative and semiquantitative proxy data based on more than 200 core-top samples and 100 deep-sea cores lead to important new insights about late Quaternary changes in paleo-oceanography, climate and microfaunal habitats in the north-eastern North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, insights resulting from a detailed investigation by the Kiel research project SFB 313/132 summarized in this paper. Planktonic foraminifera species provide reliable tracers of past sea surface temperatures and currents. The genus Beella in particular was found to trace subtropical water masses up to the far north. Benthic foraminifera species served as sensors of bottom currents and local flux rates of organic matter. New orders of time resolution are reached via stable isotope stratigraphy and accelerator mass spectrometry carbon-14 dating, allowing the identification of meltwater events lasting a few hundred years and shorter, a time range where, however, the yet unquantified role of bioturbation presents a growing problem. Based on this high-resolution stratigraphy a number of time slices (synoptic time intervals) are defined to reconstruct the incursion of Atlantic water masses, to map paleocurrent patterns within the Nordic Seas and the north-eastern North Atlantic and to test alternative circulation models — for example, for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and various meltwater episodes. These are clearly coeval with Dansgaard-Oeschger events found in Greenland ice cores, with the actual cause of the flickering climate as yet unknown. Likewise, there is ongoing controversy about the extent of past sea-ice cover and about possible changes from the present anti-estuarine to estuarine mode of deep water exchange between the North Atlantic and the Nordic Seas during the LGM. South of Iceland, however, the history of deep water renewal over the last glacial cycle covering the last 30000 years was largely deciphered.  相似文献   

Land, sea and human effort: technical achievement and territorial engagement     

Joost H. J. Terwindt  Jan G. Groenendijk 《GeoJournal》1997,42(1):1-7

Land, Sea and Human Effort was the central theme of the 28th IGU Congress in The Hague, The Netherlands. This volume contains the key-note addresses highlighting this central theme. Three major issues regarding low-land coasts came to the fore: land-use, environmental quality and safeguarding of the land. An interesting question is whether the concentration of human activities in large urban nodes will continue, or that such nodes and hierarchies will no longer structure our world, because of the ever-increasing importance of all means of communication and transport, as indicated by Johnston. Functions may disperse to specialised environments. A similar specialisation may be encountered in e.g. the development of tourism in the coastal zone. As Gormsen has elucidated, tourism has over time extended in a sequence of spatial peripheries. Consequently, phases in development may be identified with a growing impact and participation of local tourism interwoven with international growth. The environmental quality of coastal zones is seriously under threat, due to ever-increasing population pressure and human exploitation. The major problems are pollution and the availability of good quality water. Oudshoorn explored the worlds resources of drinking water, indicating the great need for political awareness of this huge problem. Cross-sectoral planning is advocated by Oudshoorn, even if water management often trespasses international boundaries and the harmonisation of the planning strategies is mostly difficult. The environmental quality of the coastal zone is also affected by the exploitation of oil and gas resources. Odell demonstrates that the conditions for this exploitation in the North Sea are unique, especially because of the great impact of an international agreement on offshore exploitation. Planning in sea areas is becoming an issue of increasing importance as it has to cope with the many, often conflicting interests, such as shipping, fishery, mining, waste disposal in relation to environmental and ecological constraints. The safeguarding of the land against river floods and sea side storm surges under the threat of a rising sea level is another important issue in coastal low-lands. Callander reviews the present state of human influence on climatic change and the associated sea level change. As indicated by Hesselman et al. new remote sensing and associated GIS techniques have recently been developed which are a great contribution in determining the fate of the coastal zones with respect to the threats induced by natural and human activities.  相似文献   

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS FOR THE IMPACT OF ANTARCTIC ICE COVER AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ON CLIMATE VARIABILITY^*          下载免费PDF全文

Miao Qun  Chen Longxun 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1997,11(1):23-34

By using a three-level atmospheric general circulation model(AGCM),we have completed several numerical experiments to study the impacts of sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) and antarctic ice cover anomaly(AICA) during 1981-1983 on climate variability.The results show that during the El Nino period of 1982-1983 the impact of SSTA overrides that of AICA.SSTA mainly affects equatorial zonal circulation and produces PNA wave train,and SE-NW wave train in East Asia to influence the weather of China.AICA produces west-east anomalous vortex streets in the middle latitudes of both hemispheres and affects the intensity of the polar vortex of Southern Hemisphere.  相似文献   

国外有关海气系统年代际变率的机制研究   总被引：13，自引：1，他引：13  

江志红  屠其璞 《地球科学进展》2001,16(4):569-573

对近期国外有关年代际变率机制的诊断和模拟研究作了综合评述 ,着重介绍形成年代际变率的 5种主要机制 ,即热带海洋的强迫作用、中纬度的海气相互作用、温盐环流的作用、热带—中纬度的相互作用、海气之间的随机强迫作用机制 ,并简单阐述了作者的有关看法  相似文献   

Three-dimensional slope reliability and risk assessment using auxiliary random finite element method     

《Computers and Geotechnics》2016

This paper aims to propose an auxiliary random finite element method (ARFEM) for efficient three-dimensional (3-D) slope reliability analysis and risk assessment considering spatial variability of soil properties. The ARFEM mainly consists of two steps: (1) preliminary analysis using a relatively coarse finite-element model and Subset Simulation, and (2) target analysis using a detailed finite-element model and response conditioning method. The 3-D spatial variability of soil properties is explicitly modeled using the expansion optimal linear estimation approach. A 3-D soil slope example is presented to demonstrate the validity of ARFEM. Finally, a sensitivity study is carried out to explore the effect of horizontal spatial variability. The results indicate that the proposed ARFEM not only provides reasonably accurate estimates of slope failure probability and risk, but also significantly reduces the computational effort at small probability levels. 3-D slope probabilistic analysis (including both 3-D slope stability analysis and 3-D spatial variability modeling) can reflect slope failure mechanism more realistically in terms of the shape, location and length of slip surface. Horizontal spatial variability can significantly influence the failure mode, reliability and risk of 3-D slopes, especially for long slopes with relatively strong horizontal spatial variability. These effects can be properly incorporated into 3-D slope reliability analysis and risk assessment using ARFEM.  相似文献   

应用全型散度方程诊断鄂东北一次梅雨强降雨     

张端禹  许建玉  赵玉春 《气象科技》2016,44(6):1009-1015

利用0.5°×0.5°GFS分析资料和常规气象观测资料,分析2013年7月5—7日鄂东北梅雨连续暴雨过程。结果表明:1降雨具有比较明显的日变化,夜间加强,白天减弱;鄂东北低层辐合也有与降雨强度一致的日变化特点。2散度变率在高层出现正值、中低层出现负值有利于降雨加强,且这种变化比暴雨发生稍有提前。一般傍晚散度变率在低层即出现负值,这有利于夜间低层辐合加强。3利用全型散度方程2项组合诊断发现,虽然非线性平衡方程偏差项确是散度变率的主要项,但在降雨开始阶段只有余项在低层出现较为明显的负值。4利用全型散度方程4项组合诊断发现,边界层水平风场辐合是降雨启动因子之一;非地转平衡项在近地面出现较大正值对于降雨减弱有较好的指示;与垂直运动有关的项在降雨峰值阶段中层负值较大。  相似文献   

Bayesian Equivalent Sample Toolkit (BEST): an Excel VBA program for probabilistic characterisation of geotechnical properties from limited observation data     

Yu Wang  Zijun Cao 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2016,10(4):251-268

In site investigation, the amount of observation data obtained for geotechnical property characterisation is often too sparse to obtain meaningful statistics and probability distributions of geotechnical properties. To address this problem, a Bayesian equivalent sample method was recently developed. This paper aims to generalize the Bayesian equivalent sample method to various geotechnical properties, when measured by different direct or indirect test procedures, and to implement the generalized method in Excel by developing an Excel VBA program called Bayesian Equivalent Sample Toolkit (BEST). The BEST program makes it possible for practitioners to apply the Bayesian equivalent sample method without being compromised by sophisticated algorithms in probability, statistics and simulation. The program is demonstrated and validated through examples of soil and rock property characterisations.  相似文献   

Quantifying the contribution of natural variability to September Arctic sea ice decline   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

SONG Mirong  WEI Lixin  WANG Zhenzhan 《海洋学报(英文版)》2016,35(5):49-53

Arctic sea ice extent has been declining in recent decades. There is ongoing debate on the contribution of natural internal variability to recent and future Arctic sea ice changes. In this study, we contrast the trends in the forced and unforced simulations of carefully selected global climate models with the extended observed Arctic sea ice records. The results suggest that the natural variability explains no more than 42.3% of the observed September sea ice extent trend during 35 a(1979–2013) satellite observations, which is comparable to the results of the observed sea ice record extended back to 1953(61 a, less than 48.5% natural variability). This reinforces the evidence that anthropogenic forcing plays a substantial role in the observed decline of September Arctic sea ice in recent decades. The magnitude of both positive and negative trends induced by the natural variability in the unforced simulations is slightly enlarged in the context of increasing greenhouse gases in the 21st century.However, the ratio between the realizations of positive and negative trends change has remained steady, which enforces the standpoint that external forcing will remain the principal determiner of the decreasing Arctic sea ice extent trend in the future.  相似文献