Intraseasonal variability of winter precipitation over central asia and the western tibetan plateau from 1979 to 2013 and its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2017

Winter precipitation over Central Asia and the western Tibetan Plateau (CAWTP) is mainly a result of the interaction between the westerly circulation and the high mountains around the plateau. Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs), Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), linear regression and composite analysis were used to analyze winter daily precipitation and other meteorological elements in this region from 1979 to 2013, in order to understand how interactions between the regional circulation and topography affect the intraseasonal variability in precipitation. The SVD analysis shows that the winter daily precipitation variability distribution is characterized by a dipole pattern with opposite signs over the northern Pamir Plateau and over the Karakoram Himalaya, similar to the second mode of EOF analysis. This dipole pattern of precipitation anomaly is associated with local anomalies in both the 700 hPa moisture transport and the 500 hPa geopotential height and is probably caused by oscillations in the regional and large-scale circulations, which can influence the westerly disturbance tracks and water vapor transport. The linear regression shows that the anomalous mid-tropospheric circulation over CAWTP corresponds to an anti-phase variation of the 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies over the southern and northern North Atlantic 10 days earlier (at 95% significance level), that bears a similarity to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The composite analysis reveals that the NAO impacts the downstream regions including CAWTP by controlling south-north two branches of the middle latitude westerly circulation around the Eurasian border. During the positive phases of the NAO, the northern branch of the westerly circulation goes around the northwest Tibetan Plateau, whereas the southern branch encounters the southwest Tibetan Plateau, which leads to reduced precipitation over the northern Pamir Plateau and increased precipitation over the Karakoram Himalaya, and vice versa.  相似文献   

Long-Term Rainfall Variability in the Eastern Gangetic Plain in Relation to Global Temperature Change     

Aradhana Yaduvanshi  Ashwini Ranade 《大气与海洋》2017,55(2):94-109

India’s annual weather cycle consists mainly of wet and dry periods with monsoonal rains being one of the significant wet periods that shows strong spatiotemporal variability. This study includes the climatological characteristics, fluctuation features, and periodic cycles of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall of seven river basins across the eastern Gangetic Plain (EGP) using the longest possible instrumental area-averaged monthly rainfall series (1829–2012). Understanding the relationships between these parameters and global tropospheric temperature changes and El Niño and La Niña climatic signals is also attempted.

Climatologically, mean annual rainfall in the EGP varies from 1070.5?mm in the Tons River basin to 1508.6?mm in the Subarnarekha River basin. The highest rainfall in the EGP occurs during monsoon (1188?mm). The annual rainfall in all river basins and monsoon rainfall in four river basins is normally distributed. Annual and monsoonal rainfall in the Brahmani and Son River basins show a significant decreasing long-term trend. Over the last 20 years, annual rainfall in all river basins and monsoonal rainfall in five river basins show a decreasing trend. The power spectra for all rainfall series are characterized by consistent significant wavelength peaks at 3–5 years, 10–20 years, 40 years, and more than 80 years. Short-term fluctuations with a period less than 10 years is the major contributor to total variance in annual and/or monsoon rainfall (77.6%), followed by decadal variations with a period of 10–30 years (13.1%) and a long-term trend with a period greater than 30 years (9.3%).Temperature and thickness gradients from the Tibet–Himalaya–Karakoram–Hindu Kush highlands to eight strong highs show a significant correlation with rainfall during the onset and withdrawal phases of summer monsoon in the EGP.  相似文献   

Rainfall variability,rainfed agriculture and degree of human marginality in North Guanajuato,Mexico          下载免费PDF全文

Rebeca Granados  Jesus Soria  Moises Cortina 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2017,38(2):153-166

Mexico has a heterogeneous climate due to its geographical location. Half of the Mexican territory is dryland, mostly in the centre and north of the country, within which agriculture is the main activity in the primary production sector. At present, climate variability has a strong impact on Mexican agriculture. This study analysed rainfall variability, its impact on the agricultural productivity in terms of harvested quantity and productivity of 1996‐2014, and in parallel, the role that socioeconomic development plays on the well‐being of the population who live in areas with rainfed agriculture and a semi‐dry climate. The data obtained were analysed with the Statistical Analysis System. A positive correlation was found between rainfall and productivity (r = 0.76 for maize; r = 0.711 for beans). Rainfall variations therefore have a great impact on agricultural productivity, on food security and on the economy. Besides production losses, a parallel consequence is marginalization of the population because producers' income is increasingly reduced due to smaller crop volumes.  相似文献   

A simple predator-prey model of exploited marine fish populations incorporating alternative prey     

Spencer  Paul D.; Collie  Jeremy S. 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》1996,53(3):615-628

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Nonlinear aspects of sea surface temperature in Monterey Bay     

Laurence C. Breaker 《Progress in Oceanography》2006,69(1):61-89

Nonlinear aspects of sea surface temperature (SST) in Monterey Bay are examined, based on an 85-year record of daily observations from Pacific Grove, California. Oceanic processes that affect the waters of Monterey Bay are described, processes that could contribute to nonlinearity in the record. Exploratory data analysis reveals that the record at Pacific Grove is non-Gaussian and, most likely, nonstationary. A more recent test for stationarity based on a power law approximation to the slope of the power spectrum indicates that the record is stationary for frequencies up to ∼8 cycles per year (∼45 days), but nonstationary at higher frequencies. To examine the record at Pacific Grove for nonlinear behavior, third-order statistics, including the skewness, statistical measures of asymmetry, the bicorrelation, and the bispectrum, were employed. The bicorrelation revealed maxima located approximately 365 days apart, reflecting a nonlinear contribution to the annual cycle. Based on a 365-day moving window, the running skewness is positive almost 80% of the time, reflecting the overall impact of warming influences. The asymmetry is positive approximately 75% of the time, consistent with the asymmetric shape of the mean annual cycle. Based on the skewness and asymmetry, nonlinearities in the record, when they occur, appear to be event-driven with time scales possibly as short as several days, to several years. In many cases, these events are related to warm water intrusions into the bay, and El Niño warming episodes.The power spectrum indicates that the annual cycle is a dominant source of variability in the record and that there is a relatively strong semiannual component as well. To determine whether or not the annual and semiannual cycles are harmonically related, the bispectrum and bicoherence were calculated. The bispectrum is nonzero, providing a strong indication of nonlinearity in the record. The bicoherence indicates that the annual cycle is a major source of nonlinearity and further implies that the annual and semiannual cycles are harmonically related. Based on the wavelet power spectrum (WPS), the appearance of the semiannual cycle is transitory; however, pathways between the annual and semiannual cycles appear at certain times when nonlinear interaction between them could occur. Comparisons between the WPS and the running skewness suggest that there is a tendency for periods when pathways exist, to coincide with increased positive skewness, and, often, with El Niño warming episodes. The Hilbert-Huang transform, a relatively new tool for nonstationary and nonlinear spectral analysis, was used to further examine the origin of the semiannual cycle. The time-dependent Hilbert spectrum reveals large and erratic variations in frequency associated with semiannual cycle but far greater stability associated with the annual cycle. As a result, the time-integrated Hilbert spectrum does not indicate the presence of a semiannual cycle. The method of surrogates from the field of nonlinear dynamics was also employed to test the Hopkins record for nonlinearity. Differences between the data and the surrogates were found that were statistically significant, implying the existence of nonlinearity in the record. Using the method of surrogates together with a one-year moving window, El Niño warming episodes appear to be a likely source of nonlinearity, consistent with the other analyses that were performed. Finally, the influence of stochastic variability due to serial correlation in the data was examined by comparing standardized statistics for the observations and for simulations based on an autoregressive model whose properties were obtained from the observations. The magnitude of the variability for the simulations was found to be far less than that associated with the original data, and thus stochastic variability does not appear to be a factor that significantly affects the interpretation of our results.  相似文献   

Seasonal and inter-annual dynamics of mesoplankton in the northwestern Japan Sea     

Natalia T. Dolganova  Yury I. Zuenko 《Progress in Oceanography》2004,61(2-4):227

Based upon four decades of observations in the northwestern part of the Japan Sea, the seasonal and inter-annual variations of zooplankton abundance and species composition in the epipelagic layer are considered. Seasonal characteristics of the zooplankton community are described in detail for five domains that occur within this part of the Japan Sea. Inter-decadal variation was not significant, but inter-annual variation was considerable and generally opposite to water temperature changes in the upper layer. Exceptional years such as 1996 were noted when a maximum abundance of zooplankton in summer occurred along with a slowing of the seasonal pattern of succession.  相似文献   

Intraannual variability of sea level around Tosa Bay     

Hiroshi Kuroda  Manabu Shimizu  Yuuichi Hirota  Hideki Akiyama 《Journal of Oceanography》2007,63(5):849-862

Through analysis of monthly in situ hydrographic, tide gauge, altimetry and Kuroshio axis data for the years 1993–2001, the intraannual variability of sea level around Tosa Bay, Japan, with periods of 2–12 months is examined together with the intraannual variability of the Kuroshio south of the bay. It is shown that the intraannual variation of steric height on the slope in Tosa Bay can account for that of sea level at the coast around the bay as well as on this slope. It is found that the steric height (or sea level) variation on the slope in this bay is mainly controlled by the subsurface thermal variation correlated with the Kuroshio variation off Cape Ashizuri, the western edge of Tosa Bay. That is, when the nearshore Kuroshio velocity south of the cape is intensified [weakened] concurrently with the northward [southward] displacement of the current axis, temperature in an entire water column decreases [increases] simultaneously, mainly due to the upward [downward] displacement of isotherms, coincident with that of the main thermocline. It follows that the steric height (or sea level) decreases [increases].  相似文献   

Trans-Atlantic responses of Calanus finmarchicus populations to basin-scale forcing associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation     

C. H. Greene  A. J. Pershing  A. Conversi  B. Planque  C. Hannah  D. Sameoto  E. Head  P. C. Smith  P. C. Reid  J. Jossi  D. Mountain  M. C. Benfield  P. H. Wiebe  E. Durbin 《Progress in Oceanography》2003,58(2-4):301

Populations of the copepod species Calanus finmarchicus often dominate the springtime biomass and secondary production of shelf ecosystems throughout the North Atlantic Ocean. Recently, it has been hypothesised that interannual to interdecadal fluctuations observed in such populations are driven primarily by climate-associated changes in ocean circulation. Here, we compare evidence from the North Sea and Gulf of Maine/Western Scotian Shelf (GoM/WSS) linking fluctuations in C. finmarchicus abundance to changes in ocean circulation associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A particularly striking contrast emerges from this Trans-Atlantic comparison: whereas the North Sea C. finmarchicus population exhibits a negative correlation with the NAO index, the GoM/WSS population exhibits a more complex, positive association with the index. The physical processes underlying these contrasting population responses are discussed in the context of regional- to basin-scale circulation changes associated with the NAO.  相似文献   

The influence of troughs and crests of ripple marks on the structure of subtidal benthic assemblages around rocky reefs     

F. Barros  A. J. Underwood  P. Archambault 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2004,60(4):781-790

This study tested the hypothesis that the small-scale topography caused by ripples in sediment would affect benthic macrofaunal assemblages. Ripple marks were measured and macrofauna and sediments were sampled near to and far from subtidal rocky reefs at two sites. Ripples were significantly wider and taller close to than far from reefs. Sediment grain-size was significantly different between crests and troughs. Microtopography clearly influenced the structure of the benthic macrofaunal assemblages in three of the four locations (and 8 of the 12 sites) examined. Numbers of taxa of the benthic macrofaunal assemblages and almost all individual taxa analysed showed significant greater abundances in troughs than in crests. The results strongly support the model that benthic macrofauna are affected by locally varying hydrodynamic environments produced by ripple-beds. These, in turn, were influenced by their proximity to a reef. Models about passive transport of the macrofauna by water-movement and active movements of the fauna are discussed. Furthermore, it appeared that there was a relationship between spatial variability of the macrofaunal assemblages and size of ripples. It is suggested that microtopography should be considered in experimental designs when patterns of distribution of benthic organisms are being evaluated.  相似文献   

Autumn atmospheric preconditioning for interannual variability of wintertime sea-ice in the Okhotsk Sea     

Yoshi N. Sasaki  Yurika Katagiri  Shoshiro Minobe  Ignatius G. Rigor 《Journal of Oceanography》2007,63(2):255-265

Relations in year-to-year variability between wintertime Sea-Ice Concentrations (SICs) in the Okhotsk Sea and atmospheric anomalies consisting of zonal and meridional 1000-hPa wind speeds and 850-hPa air temperatures are studied using a singular value decomposition analysis. It is revealed that the late autumn (October–November) atmospheric conditions strongly influence sea-ice variability from the same season (late autumn) through late winter (February—March), in which sea-ice extent is at its maximum. The autumn atmospheric conditions for the positive sea-ice anomalies exhibit cold air temperature anomalies over the Okhotsk Sea and wind anomalies blowing into the Okhotsk Sea from Siberia. These atmospheric conditions yield anomalous ocean-to-atmosphere heat fluxes and cold sea surface temperature anomalies in the Okhotsk Sea. Hence, these results suggest that the atmospheric conditions affect the sea-ice through heat anomalies stored in sea-ice and oceanic fields. The late autumn atmosphere conditions are related to large 700-hPa geopotential height anomalies over the Bering Sea and northern Eurasia, which are related to a stationary Rossby wave propagation over the North Pacific and that from the North Atlantic to Eurasia, respectively. In addition, the late autumn atmospheric preconditioning also plays an important role in the decreasing trend in the Okhotsk sea-ice extent observed from 1980 to the mid-1990s. Based on the lagged sea-ice response to the late autumn atmosphere, a simple seasonal prediction scheme is proposed for the February–March sea-ice extent using four-month leading atmospheric conditions. This scheme explains 45% of the variance of the Okhotsk sea-ice extent.  相似文献