预测陕西关中地区需水量的改进GM(1,1)模型   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

王菊翠  曹明明  仵彦卿 《干旱区地理》2006,29(1):35-41

需水量评价与预测是水资源规划与管理一项重要的研究内容。本文采用定额法计算需水量。通过对陕西关中地区需水量要素组成的分析,认为需水量要素属平稳时间序列,且一阶累加生成数据系列满足指数规律,符合灰色预测条件。为了提高GM(1,1)模型的精度,采用一种改变背景值的新方法,即:中心逼近方法。通过精度检验,中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型平均误差百分比、误差平方和分别比传统的GM(1,1)模型提高了0.147和1.579。用中心逼近式GM(1,1)模型预测需水量各要素近期和中长期值,经检验,其中非农业人口、农业人口、耕地面积、工业总产值预测模型满足一级模型,等级为良好。牲畜头数预测模型为不合格模型,分析其原因,主要是因为时间序列数据不完全符合指数规律。通过定额法计算,预计75%保证率时2005年和2010年关中地区工农业需水量分别占总需水量的92.21%和89.75%,生活需水量分别占7%和9.04%。  相似文献   

三工河流域新老绿洲发育度的比较   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

何新梅  李小玉  肖笃宁  李彦 《干旱区地理》2006,29(3):342-347

绿洲是干旱区最重要的景观单元之一。人工绿洲是在干旱条件下经长期人类活动改造而形成的特殊景观。随着人类对绿洲水土资源开发利用程度的不断加强,绿洲呈现出不同的发展阶段。从天然绿洲到人工绿洲,是人类适应和改造干旱区自然环境的历程。在这一人地相互作用的过程中,绿洲显示出明显的发育演化特征。从多学科综合的角度,提出绿洲发育度的概念,并从灌溉体系的建设状况、水资源的利用水平、植被与生态建设、农业发展程度、社会经济水平和绿洲景观结构等7个方面提出了绿洲发育度的评价指标体系,以天山北坡2个人工绿洲为例,从空间上定量比较2个绿洲的发育程度,其中阜康市绿洲发育度高于222团绿洲(阜北农场)。  相似文献   

Geography (or geographers) and earth system science   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ron Johnston 《Geoforum》2006,37(1):7-11

A response to Pitman’s recent arguments regarding a perceived invasion of geographers’ territory within the academic division of labour by earth system science. Geography is not the grand synthesiser, the only discipline which can explain the big picture, and arrogant claims that it is are counter-productive, both within and outwith the discipline. Geographers should just get on with what they are doing—well.  相似文献   

Retailing local food in the Scottish-English borders: A supply chain perspective     

B. Ilbery  D. Maye 《Geoforum》2006,37(3):352-367

Local food is championed as one alternative response to industrial systems of food production and supply. While advocacy for local food is high, there is a lack of empirical evidence about the actual shape and scale of such food supply chains, especially from a retail perspective. Using supply chain diagrams, this paper presents a summary of ‘new’ agro-food geographies for five different retail types—farm shops, butchers, caterers, specialist shops, supermarkets/department stores—that all source local food from suppliers in the Scottish-English borders. Presented as five separate ‘shopping trips’, the paper examines where, how and why retailers source local food. Results reveal the complex nature of local food systems, especially in terms of intra-sector competitive dynamics (with a notable tension between direct forms of retail and established (independent) retailers), links and overlaps with ‘normal’ food retail systems and elastic notions of the ‘local’. The paper also draws a key distinction between locally produced and locally supplied food products.  相似文献   

Holocene record of productivity in the NW Iberian continental shelf     

V. Alves Martins  C. Patinha  E. Ferreira da Silva  J.-M. Jouanneau  O. Weber  F. Rocha   《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2006,88(1-3):408

A multiproxy approach (textural characteristics, heavy metal concentrations and benthic foraminifera data) was adopted to study the OMEX core KSGX 40, collected at the Galicia Mud Deposit (NW Iberian outer continental shelf) and recording the last ca. 4.8 ka cal BP. Geochemical profiles of Fe, Mn, Zn, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Al and Ca show significant temporal variations. Benthic foraminifera productivity proxy suggests that the recorded muddy events were contemporaneous of a higher C_org flux to the marine benthic environment. The higher flux of organic matter, following a long-term intensification of the upwelling and coinciding with a finer sedimentation, led to depressed levels of oxygen beneath the water-sediments interface and to early diagenetic processes of several redox-sensitive elements.  相似文献   

Micro-spectroscopic investigations of highly heterogeneous waste repository materials   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A.M. Scheidegger  D. Grolimund  C.R. Cheeseman  R.D. Rogers 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2006,88(1-3):59

Assuring safe disposal and long-term storage of radioactive and toxic wastes corresponds to a primary environmental task of present societies. To improve any technical limitation, a mechanistic understanding of the processes governing the binding of heavy metals and radionuclides is required. In this study, the significance of synchrotron-based X-ray microprobes for elucidating the spatial distribution and the speciation of radionuclides in highly heterogeneous waste repository materials will be outlined. A case study on the uptake process of Co in cementitious engineered barrier materials exposed to microbial degradation will be presented.  相似文献   

Cross-formational hydrocarbon fluid flows in the Tertiary deltaic system of the Beaufort–Mackenzie Basin     

Maowen Li  Yongqiang Xiong  Lloyd R. Snowdon  Dale Issler 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2006,89(1-3):214

Molecular and isotopic compositions of crude oils in the Beaufort–Mackenzie Basin confirm three genetic end-member oil groups and suggest extensive cross-formational hydrocarbon fluid flows in the Tertiary deltaic system. Inter- and intra-fractional variations in the geochemistry of the Tertiary-reservoired oils indicate that the oil source/maturity signatures were substantially masked by biomarkers that were picked up along migration pathways. Thus, many of the previously recognized “immature non-marine oils” are in fact thermally mature, probably derived from unpenetrated deeper marine source rocks. Although the effective source rock volumes have not been evaluated and their exact stratigraphic levels remain unknown, the relative timing of oil generation versus trap formation, rather than poor source quality, may be the cause of under-filled traps in the offshore area.  相似文献   

Analysis on the sources of mercury in soils in the Chengdu Basin, China     

Limin REN Bing QIN Wenchun TANG Zhendong MA Yikeng HU 《中国地球化学学报》2006,25(B08):10-10

Mercury is a pollutant of concern due to its toxic and bioaccumulative properties. Studies on the distribution and hazard of mercury in the environment are mainly focused on its forms, toxicity and the environment standard, and progresses and results have been achieved. But these studies in the past were concentrated on the scales of laboratory or smaller districts merely, such as a small unit of mineral area, vegetable base, paddy field, lake, etc. Multi-target regional geochemical survey carried out by China Geological Survey from the 1990s to now is a fundamental and commonweal geological survey, large-scale and systematical inquisition and research were conducted in 19 provinces （or municipalities directly under the Central Government） in the eastern overlay region of China, and the purpose is to provide the basic geochemical data for national economic construction, adjustment of industrial and agricultural structures and sustainable social development. Geochemical studies aim at investigating soils in these regions and 52 elements have been tested, producing a great amount of data at the same time. Methods： based on the data from 3061 samples of surface soil and 832 samples of deep soil from the project of multi-purpose geochemical survey in the Chengdu Basin, Sichuan, China, this paper describes the correlation relationship between Hg and other 48 elements and their spatial distribution in surface and deep soils of these areas by applying the method of linear regression and factor analysis.  相似文献   

Variability of sulfur along the coastal salt marshes, Quanzhou Bay, China     

《中国地球化学学报》2006,25(B08):11-11

  相似文献   

Mitigation of municipal solid waste leachate contamination at Payatas, Metro Manila, Philippines： A technical proposal     

Marvin Joseph Montefrio Kai Scene Ng Lee Yih Koh Erwin Torio Mark Hansley Chua Louernie de Sales-Papa Jeffrey Philip Obbard 《中国地球化学学报》2006,25(B08):122-122

The gross environmental condition of the Payatas Disposal Facility in Metro Manila, Philippines, implores the need for sustainable technologies to control and abate toxic municipal solid waste leachate and protect public health. A team of environmental engineers recognized this need by selecting the site as a design project for the Mondialogo Worldwide Engineering Award, sponsored by the United Nations and Daimler Chrysler. The project culminated in a technical proposal that highlighted the following design features： an impermeable dumpsite cap to control leachate generation; vertical impermeable barriers for containment and isolation of leachate; a drainage system to divert clean, surface water from the cap and prevent its contamination prior to discharge; a leachate recirculation system to enhance stabilisation of the waste deposit; and a facultative lagoon and constructed wetland system to treat excess leachate.  相似文献