SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK     

WANGXie-kang HUANGEr CUIPeng 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2003,13(3):262-266

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.  相似文献   

WR 7a: a V Sagittae or a qWR star?     

A. S. Oliveira  J. E. Steiner  D. Cieslinski 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,346(3):963-967

The star WR 7a, also known as SPH 2, has a spectrum that resembles that of V Sagittae stars although no O  vi emission has been reported. The Temporal Variance Spectrum – TVS – analysis of our data shows weak but strongly variable emission of O  vi lines which is below the noise level in the intensity spectrum.
Contrary to what is seen in V Sagittae stars, optical photometric monitoring shows very little, if any, flickering. We found evidence of periodic variability. The most likely photometric period is   P _phot= 0.227(±14) d  , while radial velocities suggest a period of   P _spec= 0.204(±13) d  . One-day aliases of these periods can not be ruled out. We call attention to similarities with HD 45166 and DI Cru (= WR 46), where multiple periods are present. They may be associated to the binary motion or to non-radial oscillations.
In contrast to a previous conclusion by Pereira et al., we show that WR 7a contains hydrogen. The spectrum of the primary star seems to be detectable as the N  v 4604 Å  absorption line is visible. If so, it means that the wind is optically thin in the continuum and that it is likely to be a helium main sequence star.
Given the similarity to HD 45166, we suggests that WR 7a may be a qWR – quasi Wolf–Rayet – star. Its classification is WN4h/CE in the Smith, Shara & Moffat three-dimensional classification system.  相似文献   

Shapelets – II. A method for weak lensing measurements     

Alexandre Refregier  David Bacon 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,338(1):48-56

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The fundamental plane of ellipticals – I. The dark matter connection     

Annamaria Borriello  Paolo Salucci  Luigi Danese 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,341(4):1109-1120

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X-ray spectral evolution of low-mass X-ray binary GX 349+2     

V. K. Agrawal  P. Sreekumar 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,346(3):933-939

We present the results of a systematic investigation of spectral evolution in the Z source GX 349+2, using data obtained during 1998 with the Proportional Counter Array (PCA) on-board the RXTE satellite. The source traced a extended normal branch (NB) and flaring branch (FB) in the colour–colour diagram (CD) and the hardness-intensity diagram (HID) during these observations. The spectra at different positions of the Z-track were best fitted by a model consisting of a disc blackbody and a Comptonized spectrum. A broad (Gaussian) iron line at ∼6.7 keV is also required to improve the fit. The spectral parameters showed a systematic and significant variation with the position along the Z-track. The evolution in spectral parameters is discussed in view of the increasing mass accretion rate scenario, proposed to explain the motion of Z sources in the CD and the HID.  相似文献   

Impact of the seasonal variations of composition on the temperature field of Titan’s stratosphere     

Sébastien Lebonnois  Frédéric Hourdin  David Luz 《Icarus》2003,163(1):164-174

We investigate the role of seasonal variations of Titan’s stratospheric composition on the temperature. We use a general circulation model coupled with idealized chemical tracers that reproduce variations of ethane (C₂H₆), acetylene (C₂H₂), and hydrogen cyanide (HCN). Enhancement of the mole fractions of these compounds, at high latitudes in the winter hemisphere relative to their equatorial values, induces a relative decrease in temperature above approximately 0.2 mbar, with a peak amplitude around −20 K, and a relative increase in temperature below, around 1 mbar, with a peak amplitude around +7 K. These thermal effects are mainly due to the variations of the cooling to space induced by the varying distributions. The ethane, acetylene, and hydrogen cyanide variations affect the cooling rates in a similar way, with the dominant effect being due to ethane, though its latitudinal variations are small.  相似文献   

CCD联合平差方法及其初步实例检验     

YU Yong LI Jinling TANG Zhenghong WANG Guangli ZHAO Ming 《中国科学院上海天文台年刊》2003,(1)

在常规照相天体测量工作中 ,对暗天体的定位是采用逐级定标星过渡的方法实现的。由于星表系统差和局部差的存在 ,最终定位结果可能包含难以把握的误差积累。在CCD小视场观测情况下时常难以找到足够数量的定标星。鉴于此 ,推导了CCD观测联合平差方法的严格矢量表达式 ,以期通过共同星的过渡 ,实现大天区统一平差。原理上此方法可实现相对于河外天体的定位 ,以削弱星表系统差和局部差对定位结果的影响。讨论了CCD联合平差方法实现中的问题 ,包括底片常数模型选择、切点位置改正、共同星的较差改正和法方程解算方法等 ,并分析了具体的处理措施。用实例初步检验了CCD联合平差方法的效果 ,表明通过对多张CCD观测的联合平差 ,可以削弱单张CCD观测参考星数目过少、单张CCD观测参考星分布不均、个别参考星存在位置偏差和局部区域参考星存在系统性位置偏差等不利因素对归算结果的影响 ,进而达到扩大视场和提高归算精度的目的  相似文献   

The 2dF QSO Redshift Survey – X. Lensing of background QSOs by galaxy groups     

A. D. Myers  P. J. Outram  T. Shanks  B. J. Boyle  S. M. Croom  N. S. Loaring  L. Miller  R. J. Smith 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,342(2):467-482

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Characters of the Pco2 and CO2 Flux in the East China Sea in Autumn     

纪雷  崔鹤  辛淑平  王军  张龙军  陆贤昆 《中国海洋湖沼学报》2003,21(2):180-186

Pco2 of air and seawater samples from the East China Sea(ECS) were measured in situ in autumn, 1994,Ocean currents,terrestrial fluviation,biological activities,etc.,Pco2 char-acters in air and seawater were investigated,CO2 flux and its character in the East China Sea are discussed on the basis of the Pco2 profiles of air and seawater,It was clear that the nearshore was the source of CO2;and tht the oulter sea area was the sink of CO2; and that the shelf area of the EXS is a net sink for atmospheric CO2 in autumn.  相似文献   

Morphology and Luminosity Segregations in Galaxy Groups     

M. Girardi  F. Mardirossian  M. Mezzetti  E. Rigoni 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2003,285(1):31-35

We study morphology and luminosity segregation of galaxies in groups. We analyze the two catalogs of (∼2×400) groups which have been identified in the Nearby Optical Galaxy sample, by means of hierarchical and percolation `friends-of-friends' methods. We find that earlier-type (brighter) galaxies are more clustered and lie closer to the group centers, both in position and in velocity, than later-type (fainter) galaxies. Spatial segregations are stronger than kinematical segregations. These effects are generally detected at the ≳3-sigma level, with the exception of morphological segregation in velocity, which is the weakest effect. Our main results are confirmed by the analysis of statistically more reliable groups (with at least five members), and are strengthened by the detection of segregation in both hierarchical and percolation catalogs. Luminosity segregation is shown to be independent of morphology segregation. Our conclusions agree with a continuum of segregation properties of galaxies in systems, from low-mass groups to massive clusters. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献