A Study of the Extended-range Forecast for the Low Frequency Temperature and High Temperature Weather over the Lower Reaches of Yangtze River Valley in Summer     

Qiuming Yang 《地球科学进展》2018,33(4):385-395

Based on the observational data, the variations of Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) of the daily temperatures and its relationships to the high temperature in summer over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (LYRV) were studied for the period of 1979-2011. It is found that the daily temperatures over LYRV in May-August was mainly of periodic oscillations of 1525, 3060 and 6070 days, and the interannual variation of the intensity of its 3060-day oscillation had a strongly positive correlation with the number of days with daily highest temperature over 35 ℃ in July-August. Low frequency components of daily temperature in the LYRV, and the principal components of the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperature, over a time period ranging from 1979 to 2000, were used to establish the Extended Complex Autoregressive model (ECAR) on an extended-range forecast of the 3060-day low frequency temperature over the LYRV. A 11-year independent real-time extended-range forecast was conducted on the extended-range forecast of low frequency component of the temperature over the LYRV in May-August, for the period ranging from 2001 to 2011. These experimental results show that this ECAR model, which is based on a data-driven model, has a good forecast skill at the lead time of approximately 23 days, with a forecast ability superior to the traditional autoregressive (AR) model. Hence, the development and variation of the leading 3060-day modes for the Eastern Asian 850 hPa low frequency temperatures and temporal evolutions of their relationships to low frequency components of the temperature over the LYRV in summer are very helpful in predicting the persistent high temperature over the LYRV at a 20 to 25 days lead.  相似文献   

渤南洼陷沙四下亚段沉积时期古气候演化     

徐琦松  王永诗  马立驰  孟涛  毕俊凤  王天宇 《地质论评》2021,67(Z1):67z1127-67z1128

正全球于古近纪发育PETM、ETM2、EECO、和MECO多个短期热气候事件(雷华蕊等,2018)。受热气候事件影响,渤南洼陷沙四下亚段沉积时期红层沉积发育并记录着热气候事件控制下古气候演化过程。立足于渤南洼陷沙四下亚段红层,恢复古气候演化过程,一方面可以点带面,揭示全球古近纪气候演化;另一方面为研究极端气候条件对湖盆沉积体系的控制作用奠定基础。  相似文献   

祁连山区多年冻土空间分布模拟   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

彭晨阳  盛煜  吴吉春  曹伟  何彬彬 《冰川冻土》2021,43(1):158-169

祁连山区位于青藏高原东北边缘,是亚洲水塔重要的组成部分,多年冻土的变化对生态系统和水资源平衡有着重要影响。基于青藏高原第二次综合科学考察、道路勘察钻孔点以及前人所获得的多年冻土下界资料,回归得出祁连山区多年冻土下界统计模型,借助ArcGIS平台在DEM数据的支持下,模拟出祁连山区多年冻土空间分布图。结果表明：祁连山区多年冻土分布的下界具有良好的地带性规律,表现为随经纬度增加而降低的规律;祁连山区多年冻土在空间分布上呈现出以哈拉湖为中心向四周扩散的分布格局;祁连山区总面积约为16.90×10⁴ km²,其中多年冻土面积约为8.03×10⁴ km²,占总面积约47.51%。多年冻土区与季节冻土区之间存在着有不连续多年冻土分布的过渡区,过渡区面积约1.43×10⁴ km²,占总面积约8.46%。  相似文献   

永定河中下游MIS7以来地层沉积演化及新石器时代以来气候变化          下载免费PDF全文

赵勇  杨誉博  李瑞杰  杨吉龙  王强  李亚林  王纯君  魏波  方同明  王志辉 《中国地质》2021,48(4):1188-1199

利用廊坊东A27钻孔岩心资料,样品微体生物、孢粉特征综合分析,结合AMS14C测年,对永定河中下游地区MIS7以来的地层进行分析,建立了MIS7以来的沉积地层格架,并对其进行了年代厘定,讨论了该地区大约MIS7阶段以来氧同位素分期气候下的地层及环境效应。结果表明,永定河中下游地区晚第四纪可划分为U1～U8共8个沉积单元,分别对应于MIS1～MIS7以及MIS8晚期的沉积地层,与海洋氧同位素分期有很好的对应关系。U1单元为MIS1形成的湖沼—河谷—泛滥平原沉积,U2单元为MIS2形成硬质黏土(第1硬土层)—下切河谷—湖沼沉积,U3单元为MIS3形成的湖沼—河谷—泛滥平原沉积,U4单元为MIS4形成的河间地块沉积(第2硬土层,暴露失水沉积),U5单元为MIS5形成的湖沼夹分支河道沉积,U6单元为MIS6形成的下切河谷夹短暂湖沼沉积,U7单元为MIS7形成的以湖沼为主沉积,U8单元为MIS8晚期形成的泛滥平原沉积,重塑了MIS7以来沉积环境模式,建立了本区晚第四纪精细年代地层框架。笔者认为永定河中下游在新石器时期以河湖共存为主,在其晚期为湖沼发育达到顶峰,出现泥炭层,直至商周时期后在气候变化影响下湖沼消退转变为泛滥平原面貌,为区域古地理环境及生态修复提供重要参考依据。  相似文献   

鄂尔多斯盆地及周缘地区下二叠统沉积特征^*          下载免费PDF全文

郭艳琴  赵灵生  郭彬程  费世祥  李文厚  张倩  袁珍  马瑶  何子琼  李百强 《古地理学报》2021,23(1):65-80

通过大量的野外剖面观察和盆地内钻井岩心的详细描述,综合测井资料,从岩石类型、结构、沉积构造、古生物化石及测井曲线响应特征等方面对鄂尔多斯盆地及周缘地区下二叠统太原组和山西组沉积相特征进行了全面分析研究。结果表明,太原组主要发育陆棚、海岸、冲积扇和三角洲等沉积相,海岸沉积相包括障壁岛、潟湖和潮坪沉积,三角洲沉积相可划分为三角洲平原、三角洲前缘和前三角洲沉积。山西组主要发育冲积扇、河流、曲流河三角洲、湖泊和海岸沉积相,其中河流沉积相包括辫状河和曲流河沉积,曲流河三角洲沉积相可划分为曲流河三角洲平原、曲流河三角洲前缘和前三角洲沉积,而湖泊沉积相以浅湖沉积为主,海岸沉积主要为潟湖沉积。太原期,海相沉积占主导,主要分布于银川—榆林北部一线以南广大地区,并且从东西两侧至中部地区由浅海陆棚沉积和滨浅海过渡为潟湖沉积和潮坪沉积,其间发育障壁岛。盆地西北缘发育冲积扇和扇三角洲沉积,北部广大地区以三角洲沉积为主,自北向南依次为三角洲平原和三角洲前缘沉积。山西期,海水从盆地东南部退却,整体演变为海陆过渡相沉积,盆地北部乌达—杭锦旗—鄂尔多斯一线发育冲积扇沉积,向南至靖边一带依次发育辫状河和曲流河沉积,靖边以南至延安以北地区以三角洲平原沉积为主,向南至同心—庆阳一线发育三角洲前缘沉积,盆地南部彭阳—泾阳地区主要为浅湖沉积,再向南发育物源来自南部的三角洲沉积,在东南部武乡—义马一带为潟湖沉积。  相似文献   

The cause of the spring strengthening of the Antarctic polar vortex     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2019

The stratospheric polar vortex strengthening from late winter to spring plays a crucial role in polar ozone depletion. The Arctic polar vortex reaches its peak intensity in mid-winter, whereas the Antarctic vortex usually strengthens in early spring. As a result, the strong ozone depletion is observed every year over the Antarctic, while over the Arctic short-term ozone loss occasionally occurs in late winter or early spring. However, the cause of such a difference in the life cycles of the Arctic and Antarctic polar vortices is still not completely clear. Based on the ERA-Interim reanalysis data, we show a high agreement between the seasonal variations of temperature in the subtropical lower stratosphere and zonal wind in the subpolar and polar lower stratosphere in the Southern Hemisphere. Thus, the spring strengthening of the Antarctic polar vortex can occur due to the seasonal temperature increase in the subtropical lower stratosphere in this period.  相似文献   

基于秒级探空资料的中国地区浮力频率分布          下载免费PDF全文

李芳芳  陈起英  吴泓锟 《应用气象学报》2019,30(5):629-640

浮力频率用来描述大气层结稳定性,反映大气扰动强弱。利用2014年6月-2017年5月中国地区高垂直分辨率的秒级探空资料,分析了中国地区浮力频率的时空分布特征。结果表明:中国地区大气浮力频率总体随高度的增加而增大,低平流层值大于对流层值;对流层和低平流层中浮力频率随高度变化均较小可视为常数,过渡层浮力频率随高度变化较大,对流层中浮力频率受地形影响较平流层大。对流层中北方地区5 km高度以下的浮力频率随时间呈现出较弱的周期变化,周期为1年,峰值出现在冬季,南方地区随时间无明显变化;在过渡层中南北地区的浮力频率随时间均呈现出1年的周期变化,峰值出现在冬季,谷值出现在夏季;在低平流层中南北地区浮力频率随时间均无明显变化。浮力频率的大小变化对重力波参数有较大影响,秒级探空资料计算的的浮力频率和风速切变更精细,较常规探空资料更准确地反映大气稳定度的变化。  相似文献   

Nitric oxide profiles measured in situ during the Globus '85 campaign     

W. A. Matthews  Y. Kondo  P. Fabian  B. C. Krüger 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1989,8(3):229-240

Nitric oxide profiles obtained from three flights of chemiluminescent instruments during the Globus '85 campaign held in France in the autumn of 1985 are reported. When the profile obtained in the early morning of 20 September is compared with the flight made the previous afternoon, an average morning to midday NO ratio of 0.7 for the region between 26 and 33 km is obtained. This value is in good agreement with theoretical studies involving the photolysis of N₂O₅ and the establishment of the NO₂–NO equilibrium.  相似文献   

胶东西北部重熔型磁铁矿花岗岩与金矿     

Liu Liandeng Yao Fengliang 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》1989,(3)

胶东西北部是我国最主要的金矿集中区,金矿的同源岩为滦家河花岗岩,属中深侵入体。根据它富含磁铁矿及副矿物组合,高铁低镁的黑云母,岩石化学成分,锶、氧、硫同位素组成,认为属磁铁矿花岗岩,相当于Ⅰ型花岗岩。用K、Rb、Sr、岩石化学成分,稀土元素和硫同位素判别,确认其为壳源(相当于胶东群变质岩的成分)重熔型。我国脉状金矿的容矿围岩时代老,成矿时代新,空间受构造—岩浆带制约,成矿过程脉岩活动频繁,对其原因,本文提出了一种解释。  相似文献   

A note on some early radiosonde temperature observations in the Antarctic lower stratosphere     

H. R. Phillpot 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1989,130(2-3):171-180

The behaviour of the Southern Hemisphere stratosphere has attracted considerable interest, and been compared with the Northern Hemisphere, since the International Geophysical Year (1957–58) when the sudden (explosive or accelerated) springtime warming phenomenon in the Antarctic was first observed. Over the years studies of upper air temperature and wind observations have been made, principally through the spring months when the polar vortex breakdown occurs, utilising both ground-based (rawinsonde, rocket) and more recently, satellite-derived data. Although the radiosonde-derived temperature data are limited both by the number of reporting stations, and the practical difficulty of securing observations much above the 100 hPa level, useful records exist from 1956 or 1957. These have shown that in the 1959 southern spring, the lower stratosphere was relatively colder, and the warming rate through the season was essentially more regular, with little evidence of the marked but short-lived temperature fluctuations usually found. Similar, but not quite such wide-spread conditions occurred again in the 1961 spring. In another study, 30 hPa temperature fields over the Antarctic continent, which could be drawn for the 1967 spring, showed the complexity of the polar vortex breakdown. These features are recalled because extension of the 100 hPa springtime temperature series for the Australian Antarctic station at Casey (66.3°S, 110.5°E) shows that in 1985 and part of 1986, the temperature behaviour there was similar to, but not quite so extreme as that which occurred at Mirny (66.5°S, 93.0°E) in 1959.  相似文献