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81.
定量分析汾河径流锐减的形成原因是汾河流域水资源可持续利用与管理中迫切需要解决的问题。本项研究首先采用降水-径流双累积曲线对汾河流域产流条件演变过程进行了两个时期的划分;然后采用距平百分比法对汾河流域年降水系列进行了丰枯状态划分,并建立了汾河河津站年径流量与当年降水量、上一年降水量之间的多元动态回归模型;并运用该模型定量分析了降水丰枯变化和产流条件改变对汾河径流的影响程度。结果表明：在1956-1973年间的产流条件下,降水变化使得河津站年均径流量平均减少约22.71%;在1974-2008年间的产流条件下,降水变化使得河津站年均径流量在平、枯两种年份平均减少了约18.95%;在1956-1973年间的年降水为平水或枯水条件下,产流条件改变使得河津站年均径流量减少了约47.11%;在1974-2008年间的降水条件下,产流条件改变使得河津站年均径流量减少了约55.20%。 相似文献
82.
提出一种多元整体最小二乘优化的多点灰色动态模型,并结合实例验证优化的MGM(1,n)模型的优越性。将优化的MGM(1,n)模型与一般的MGM(1,n)模型进行对比,分析两种模型的建模值和预测值。结果表明,优化的MGM(1,n)模型在建模数据多于4期的情况下建模精度更高,预测精度更准确,更符合实际情况。 相似文献
83.
Peter Astrup T. Madsen 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2013,113(1):132-142
Geografisk Tidsskrift, Danish Journal of Geography 97: 132–142, 1997. In the period 1971–90 the first admission rate to Danish psychiatric hospitals and wards decreased by approximately 45%. This might reflect the similar decrease in number of available psychiatric beds. Generally, the decrease of first admission rates was larger in the metropolitan area than in the rest of the country. Consequently, the disparity in admission rates between town and country was reduced. Number of available beds has gained increasing importance as a predictor of variations between counties and municipalities whereas the importance of distance to hospital and degree of urbanization has declined. As regards socio-demographic variables special importance should be attached to variables for social aid and the employment rate in the social and health sector. However, it is generally difficult to determine whether regional variations are due to differences in treatment facilities or morbidity differences. From a disaggregate analysis it will appear that the diagnoses schizophrenia and alcoholism are especially related to low status areas whereas a connection with social status regarding neuroses and manic-depressive psychoses is less obvious. 相似文献
84.
Luca Salvati 《Urban geography》2013,34(3):440-453
This study assesses changes in population distribution and the expansion of urban settlements in Southern Italy between 1871 and 2011. Four demographic phases are identified: (i) spatially balanced, mild population growth (1871–1921); (ii) moderate population increase concentrated in coastal and lowland areas (1921–1951); (iii) rapid and diffused population growth (1951–1981); and (iv) population stability with settlement dispersion (1981–2011). While urban growth in the years preceding the 1980s reinforced the polarization in rich and poor areas along the urban-to-rural gradient, since the early 1990s both urban and rural areas showed population dynamics that consolidated low-density settlements scattered around the largest cities. This path, however, does not reflect the evolution towards a more spatially balanced urban development, as observed in other European regions. Causes and consequences of the persistence of a fragmented urban hierarchy with dense settlements and sprawl concentrated around the main cities are finally discussed. 相似文献
85.
AbstractFloods, as extreme hydrological phenomena, can be described by more than one correlated characteristic, such as peak, volume and duration. These characteristics should be jointly considered since they are generally not independent. For an ungauged site, univariate regional flood frequency analysis (FA) provides a limited assessment of flood events. A recent study proposed a procedure for regional FA in a multivariate framework. This procedure represents a multivariate version of the index-flood model and is based on copulas and multivariate quantiles. The performance of the proposed procedure was evaluated by simulation. However, the model was not tested on a real-world case study data. In the present paper, practical aspects are investigated jointly for flood peak (Q) and volume (V) of a dataset from the Côte-Nord region in the province of Quebec, Canada. The application of the proposed procedure requires the identification of the appropriate marginal distribution, the estimation of the index flood and the selection of an appropriate copula. The results of the case study show that the regional bivariate FA procedure performed well. This performance depends strongly on the performance of the two univariate models and, more specifically, the univariate model of Q. The results show also the impact of the homogeneity of the region on the performance of the univariate and bivariate models.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis 相似文献
86.
AbstractThe multi-layered Jeffara de Gabes aquifer system is greatly influenced by tectonics. This system is limited at the base and laterally by evaporite layers and has lateral contacts with the sebkhas (salt flats). The groundwater in this aquifer is characterized by high salinity (3–10 g L-1). Multivariate statistical analysis and a geochemical approach were applied to determine the influence of the evaporite layers and sebkhas on the hydrochemical quality of the Jeffara de Gabes aquifer, and to understand the processes governing its salinity. According to these methods, and based in part on the Sr2+/Ca2+ ratio, it is demonstrated that the strong salinity of the groundwater is due to interactions between water and the evaporite layers that act as a substratum of this aquifer, as well as saltwater intrusion from the sebkhas. Moreover, the medium- to poor-quality groundwaters are characterized by geochemical interactions: cationic exchange and the precipitation/dissolution process of minerals in the aquifer formations.Editeur Z.W. KundzewiczCitation Ben Alaya, M., Zemni, T., Mamou, A. et Zargouni, F., 2014. Acquisition de salinité et qualité des eaux d’une nappe profonde, Tunisie: approche statistique et géochimique. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 395–419. 相似文献
87.
虹湾幅月球数字地质图是中国首次编制的关于月球地质演化的地质图,应用的主要数据资料来源于"中国首次月球探测工程"嫦娥一号CCD影像数据、DEM数据,结合Clementine750nm影像数据,主要月坑的高分辨率图片,同时结合前人的研究成果,如主要矿物元素含量分布图、多波段反射率特征分布图等编制完成。所有的数据处理应用的是ArcMap平台,同时结合使用了MapGIS软件和Photoshop软件,数据模型采用Geodatabase地理数据模型。详细介绍了基于ArcGIS平台编制月球数字地质图的工作流程,编制方法及依据、编制规则及数据库的建立等,为今后开展月球数字地质图的编制积累了经验。 相似文献
88.
How to select a limited number of strong ground motion records (SGMRs) is an important challenge for the seismic collapse capacity assessment of structures. The collapse capacity is considered as the ground motion intensity measure corresponding to the drift‐related dynamic instability in the structural system. The goal of this paper is to select, from a general set of SGMRs, a small number of subsets such that each can be used for the reliable prediction of the mean collapse capacity of a particular group of structures, i.e. of single degree‐of‐freedom systems with a typical behaviour range. In order to achieve this goal, multivariate statistical analysis is first applied, to determine what degree of similarity exists between each selected small subset and the general set of SGMRs. Principal Component analysis is applied to identify the best way to group structures, resulting in a minimum number of SGMRs in a proposed subset. The structures were classified into six groups, and for each group a subset of eight SGMRs has been proposed. The methodology has been validated by analysing a first‐mode‐dominated three‐storey‐reinforced concrete structure by means of the proposed subsets, as well as the general set of SGMRs. The results of this analysis show that the mean seismic collapse capacity can be predicted by the proposed subsets with less dispersion than by the recently developed improved approach, which is based on scaling the response spectra of the records to match the conditional mean spectrum. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
89.
90.
开放条件下重庆地区城镇化对土地利用效率的影响及区位差异 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
经济开放和城镇化大幅度促进经济增长是中国30年经济持续增长的重要经验。内陆地区经济赶超更加受到人地耦合系统脆弱性的挑战。在对国内外关于城镇化与土地利用关系相关文献述评的基础上,以重庆40个区县为例,通过对其城镇化水平、开放度、技术水平、区位指数及城镇建设用地综合效率进行测算,采用多元回归方法实证分析了重庆40个区县在开放条件下城镇化对土地利用效率的影响及机制。研究发现:区位因素并不像在沿海地区一样对土地利用效率起着显著性作用;土地利用效率的高低严重依赖于物质资本投入密度,而不是人力资本投入密度;极低的人力资本积累和大量缺乏训练的劳动力涌入城市,降低了城市土地利用效率并提高了经济系统的脆弱性;城镇化极为显著地促进了土地利用效率,而开放度的促进作用却不明显,二者并没有形成理论上提升土地利用综合效率的合力。 相似文献