地震学定量预报指标的一种提取方法——对比筛选法     

周翠英  蒋海昆  王红卫  姜早峰 《地震》1994,(4)

鉴于目前地震学综合定量预报指标的缺乏和预报工作的急需,尝试使用“对比筛选法(简称CSM方法)”进行地震学定量预报指标的提取试验。较之以往作法的进展在于:1.同时使用“有震”和“无震”两类样本对比筛选;2.对不同地区的地震学参数进行了归一化处理。这样做的显著优点是:1.可以较有效地提取“有震异常”和“正常变化”指标;2.提取的异常和预报指标具有定量化和普适性特点。 试验研究使用大华北地震区资料,研究对象取中强地震。经内符和外推检验,证明该方法提取的异常和预报指标有效性和实用性较高。  相似文献   

Passing through resonance: The excitation and dissipation of the lunar free libration in longitude     

Donald H. Eckhardt 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1993,57(1-2):307-324

The acceleration of the mean lunar longitude has a small effect on the periods of most terms in a Fourier expansion of the longitude. There are several planetary perturbation terms that have small amplitudes, but whose periods are close to the resonant period of the lunar libration in longitude. Some of these terms are moving toward resonance, some are moving away from resonance, and the periods of those terms that do not include the Delaunay variables in their arguments are not moving. Because of its acceleration of longitude, the Moon is receding from the Earth, so the magnitude of the restoring torque that the Earth exerts on the rotating Moon is gradually attenuating; thus resonance itself is moving, but at a much slower rate than the periods of the accelerating planetary perturbations. There are five planetary perturbation terms from the ELP-2000 Ephemeris (with amplitudes of 0.00001 or greater) that have passed through resonance in the past two million years. One of them is of special interest because it appears to be the excitation source of a supposed free libration in longitude that has been detected by the lunar laser ranging experiment. The amplitude of the term is only 0.00021 but it could be the source of the 1 amplitude free libration term if the viscoelastic properties of the Moon are similar to those of the Earth.  相似文献   

Multi-level dissipation element analysis of the surface temperature of the South China Sea     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2021

  相似文献   

近海核电厂核素地下水释放通量的模型计算方法     

朱君  李婷  陈超  谢添  张艾明 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2021,51(1):201-211

为了定量计算陵区近海核电站排水管线泄漏情景下核素通过地下水途径向海洋环境的释放通量，以某近海核电站为例进行研究。首先，应用GOCAD软件建立三维地形地质模型，刻画地层的分布、剥蚀以及倾向等特点；然后，运用地下水数值模拟软件FEFLOW精细刻画丘陵区地下水系统的补给、径流和排泄特征；最后，以不被吸附滞留的核素³H和被吸附滞留的核素⁹⁰Sr、¹³⁷Cs为对象，通过实验测定了⁹⁰Sr、¹³⁷Cs在不同岩土介质中的分配系数，模拟计算了排水管线连续渗漏60 a后³H、⁹⁰Sr、¹³⁷Cs在地下水中的放射性分布及释放。结果表明：³H迁移速度基本与地下水流速一致，地下水中的最大放射性浓度为0.285 0 Bq/L，第20 000天时向收纳水域的释放通量达到最大值，约526 Bq/d；⁹⁰Sr吸附性能相对较弱，最大迁移距离约80 m，地下水中的最大放射性浓度为0.032 1 Bq/L；¹³⁷Cs吸附能力较强，相当长的时间内被滞留在管线附近，地下水中最大放射性浓度分别为6.840×10^-3 Bq/L，释放通量为0 Bq/d。由弥散度的不确定分析可知，弥散度越大，地下水中³H的最大放射性浓度越小，向海洋环境的释放通量越多。  相似文献   

新疆第三次荒漠化监测中的问题及其建议   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4  

程小红  潘存军  彭建新 《云南地理环境研究》2006,18(2):12-16

回顾了新疆3次在荒漠化监测中所进行的荒漠化监测与评价指标体系的建立，也是新疆开展荒漠化监测的基础；介绍了以遥感与地理信息为主要技术的荒漠化监测评价的方法；阐述了新疆第三次荒漠化监测中存在的问题。指出目前新疆荒漠化评价存在的主要问题是评价指标的不确定性、评价指标体系的难操作性和遥感数据源选用的随机性，进而对上述问题的解决途径进行了讨论。  相似文献   

岩溶区集中式饮用水源地水质评价与保护——以毕节市倒天河水库和利民水库为例     

莫世江  刘勇  张鹏飞  丁卫红 《云南地理环境研究》2006,18(5):24-27

采用SPSS软件，对2003年01月至2004年12月期间，倒天河水库和利民水库逐月水质监测数据进行数理统计分析，结果表明毕节市饮用水水质污染有较明显的季节变化和空间差异；且不同污染物对水体污染的贡献率各不相同，总磷和粪大肠菌群所占份额最大，方差累积贡献率达77％。在此基础上，利用加权综合污染指数对水体水质污染现状进行综合评价，结果显示倒天河水库和利民水库，水质污染总体较轻．饮用水水质符合《地表水环境质量标准（GB3838—2002）》中Ⅲ类水质标准；最后提出加大水环境保护的建议。  相似文献   

松嫩平原西部沼泽湿地景观格局动态变化研究   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：7  

王丹丹  王志强  陈铭  张树清 《干旱区地理》2006,29(1):94-100

湿地退化及其所带来的负面影响使人们认识到湿地生态系统生态功能的重要性.因此,作为功能研究基础的景观格局及其动态变化的研究显得尤为重要.在遥感和地理信息系统技术支持下,运用土地利用变化指数和景观格局指数模型,对处于生态脆弱区的松嫩平原西部沼泽湿地景观格局及动态变化进行了定量研究,结果表明:松嫩平原西部沼泽景观格局发生了显著变化.松嫩平原西部现有沼泽湿地面积4 488.13 km2,近50年来减少了62.54%;2000年斑块密度为1954年的1.67倍,且最大斑块面积和最大斑块周长均减小,说明沼泽景观破碎化严重;松嫩平原西部沼泽湿地分布质心发生偏移,近50年,向西北方向偏移了19.4 km,主轴方向顺时针旋转了9.23o,表明了沼泽湿地景观具有破碎化和萎缩的趋势,并且呈现出不平衡性:湿地的萎缩程度偏重于研究区的东南部;得出松嫩平原西部沼泽湿地减少及生态环境恶化主要是由该区生态环境原生脆弱性和人类不合理的开发利用方式导致的.通过景观格局变化的研究为沼泽湿地格局优化和生物保护提供参考.  相似文献   

The petroleum generation potential and effective oil window of humic coals related to coal composition and age   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Henrik I. Petersen   《International Journal of Coal Geology》2006,67(4):221-248

A worldwide data set of more than 500 humic coals from the major coal-forming geological periods has been used to analyse the evolution in the remaining (Hydrogen Index, HI) and total (Quality Index, QI) generation potentials with increasing thermal maturity and the ‘effective oil window’ (‘oil expulsion window’). All samples describe HI and QI bands that are broad at low maturities and that gradually narrow with increasing maturity. The oil generation potential is completely exhausted at a vitrinite reflectance of 2.0–2.2%R_o or T_max of 500–510 °C. The initial large variation in the generation potential is related to the original depositional conditions, particularly the degree of marine influence and the formation of hydrogen-enriched vitrinite, as suggested by increased sulphur and hydrogen contents. During initial thermal maturation the HI increases to a maximum value, HI_max. Similarly, QI increases to a maximum value, QI_max. This increase in HI and QI is related to the formation of an additional generation potential in the coal structure. The decline in QI with further maturation is indicating onset of initial oil expulsion, which precedes efficient expulsion. Liquid petroleum generation from humic coals is thus a complex, three-phase process: (i) onset of petroleum generation, (ii) petroleum build-up in the coal, and (iii) initial oil expulsion followed by efficient oil expulsion (corresponding to the effective oil window). Efficient oil expulsion is indicated by a decline in the Bitumen Index (BI) when plotted against vitrinite reflectance or T_max. This means that in humic coals the vitrinite reflectance or T_max values at which onset of petroleum generation occurs cannot be used to establish the start of the effective oil window. The start of the effective oil window occurs within the vitrinite reflectance range 0.85–1.05%R_o or T_max range 440–455 °C and the oil window extends to 1.5–2.0%R_o or 470–510 °C. For general use, an effective oil window is proposed to occur from 0.85 to 1.7%R_o or from 440 to 490 °C. Specific ranges for HI_max and the effective oil window can be defined for Cenozoic, Jurassic, Permian, and Carboniferous coals. Cenozoic coals reach the highest HI_max values (220–370 mg HC/g TOC), and for the most oil-prone Cenozoic coals the effective oil window may possibly range from 0.65 to 2.0%R_o or 430 to 510 °C. In contrast, the most oil-prone Jurassic, Permian and Carboniferous coals reach the expulsion threshold at a vitrinite reflectance of 0.85–0.9%R_o or T_max of 440–445 °C.  相似文献   

Plerospheres and their role in reduction of emitted fine fly ash particles     

Fariborz Goodarzi Hamed Sanei 《中国地球化学学报》2006,25(B08):47-48

Particles, less than PM10 in size, emitted from the stack of pulverized coal-fired power plants are of environmental concern since they can easily enter the human respiratory track. These fine particles are examined by Scanning Electron Microscope/Electron Dispersive Spectrometry （SEM/EDX）. Plerospheres are found in fly ash and are particles containing smaller particles formed during combustion of coal. The large plerospheres 〉50 μm mostly are present in ESP fly ash, indicating that they are effectively capturing fine particles and reducing their stack emission.  相似文献   

The sequence of sediment behaviour during wave-induced liquefaction   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

B. MUTLU SUMER  FIGEN HATIPOGLU  JØRGEN FREDSØE  S. KAAN SUMER 《Sedimentology》2006,53(3):611-629

This paper presents the results of an experimental investigation of the complete sequence of sediment behaviour beneath progressive waves. The sediment was silty with d ₅₀ = 0.060 mm. Two kinds of measurements were carried out: pore-water pressure measurements (across the sediment depth), and water-surface elevation measurements. The process of liquefaction/compaction was videotaped from the side simultaneously with the pressure and water-surface elevation measurements. The video records were then analysed to measure: (i) the time development of the mudline, (ii) the time development of liquefaction and compaction fronts in the sediment and (iii) the characteristics of the orbital motion of the liquefied sediment including the motion of the interface between the water body and the sediment. The ranges of the various quantities in the tests were: wave height, H  = 9–17 cm, wave period, T  = 1.6 sec, water depth = 42 cm, and the Shields parameter = 0.34–0.59. The experiments reveal that, with the introduction of waves, excess pore pressure builds up, which is followed by liquefaction during which internal waves are experienced at the interface of the water body and the liquefied sediment, the sequence of processes known from a previous investigation. This sequence of processes is followed by dissipation of the accumulated excess pore pressure and compaction of the sediment which is followed by the formation of bed ripples. The present results regarding the dissipation and compaction appear to be in agreement with recent centrifuge wave-tank experiments. As for the final stage of the sequence of processes (formation of ripples), the ripple steepness (normalized with the angle of repose) for sediment with liquefaction history is found to be the same as that in sediment with no liquefaction history.  相似文献