气团订正对静止卫星成像仪资料同化在台风预报中的改进效果研究     

郭姿佑  秦正坤  杜家铭  陈华忠 《热带气象学报》2019,35(4):539-555

基于美国台风预报系统（Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting,HWRF）,研究了气团订正方法对GOES-13/15静止卫星成像仪资料同化效果的改进作用,选取了2012年6月23日生成于大西洋地区的台风Debby作为研究对象,通过一组对照试验比较了气团订正前后台风路径和初始场相关物理量的差异,结果表明:气团订正能显著减小GOES-13/15静止卫星成像仪资料的系统偏差,明显提高台风路径的预报效果,气团订正使得预报的台风路径与观测路径的平均偏差和标准差降低了30%左右,提前6 h实现了台风路径的正确转向。物理机制分析表明,经过气团订正后的静止卫星资料增强了位于台风东南侧副热带高压的强度,同时增加了台风东部的温度和比湿,在引导气流和大气温、湿场的共同作用下,台风预报路径实现了正确转向。   相似文献   

基于偏最小二乘回归的区域模式风速预报订正技术研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

杨程  姜瑜君  余贞寿  姜文东  康丽莉  王丽吉 《气象》2019,45(5):676-684

利用偏最小二乘回归技术,将预报产品作为自变量,相应的自动气象站观测资料作为因变量,对2013—2016年冬季浙江省中尺度区域模式预报近地面风速进行订正和评估。所选956站中多数站点风速订正后有所改善,通过定量分析可知浙江西部地区整体改善效果最好,其中效果明显站点占91. 7%;中部地区改善效果明显站点占86. 5%;东部沿海地区改善效果略差,明显改善的站点占67%。各地级市整体表现均不错,除舟山地区为49.9%外,其他地区风速改善比例均超过50%。选取2017年1月20日浙江东北地区沿海大风过程分析发现订正后的风速与观测风速更为接近,在定海大岛站点(靠里)中表现尤为明显,订正后的结果具有显著参考价值。  相似文献   

几种格点化温度滚动订正预报方案对比研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

曾晓青  薛峰  赵瑞霞  赵声蓉 《气象》2019,45(7):1009-1018

为了快速获得更为精准的格点温度预报产品,使用国家信息中心高分辨率、高频次的温度格点多元融合产品和欧洲中期天气预报中心全球模式2 m温度预报场资料,采用8种误差订正方案进行滚动订正预报试验。选择2017年1月1日至2月28日和6月1日至7月31日两个时间段进行两次回报模拟试验,并对订正前后的预报结果进行格点和站点检验分析,结果表明:8种方案对模式直接输出的预报场有正技巧订作用,全格点滑动误差回归模型订正和全格点滑动双因子回归模型订正效果最优,两种方案都能使订正场的格点平均绝对误差在2℃以下,3、6和9 h的格点准确率均在0.9以上。全格点滑动误差回归模型的检验评分略微好于全格点滑动双因子回归模型,表明作为预报模型因子的起报时刻误差场比数值模式因子在短期订正中扮演着更为重要的角色。  相似文献   

21世纪前期中国降水预估及其订正     

张蓓  戴新刚  杨阳 《大气科学》2019,43(6):1385-1398

用全球格点分析数据集（CRU TSv4.0）月降水资料和24个CMIP5（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5）模式历史模拟数据以及RCP4.5情景下的预估数据,分析了多模式集合平均降水的偏差特征并进行了扣除模式气候漂移和一元对数差分回归订正。结果表明,模式降水在西部和北部明显偏多,东南沿海偏少;冷季（11月至次年4月）在全国大部分地区模式降水偏多,暖季（5～10月）东南沿海季风区偏少。1956～2005年多模式集合平均历史模拟降水偏差中84%属于气候漂移,其余是偏差的非定常模态。扣除气候漂移后,RCP4.5情景下2006～2015年中国模式降水预估偏差减小90%以上,大部分地区降水偏差百分率分布在±5%以内,仅在青藏高原西部和西北中部等地区模式降水偏多10%～40%;暖季降水偏差分布与年降水量类似;冷季偏差较大,北方降水偏多,南方偏少。检验表明,一元线性对数差分回归方程订正后,模式降水对于2006～2015年期间西南和江南中部的干旱少雨气候均能再现,且距平同号率高于多模式集合平均和扣除气候漂移的结果。用该方法对RCP4.5情景下2016～2035年模式预估降水进行订正,结果显示,南方（淮河以南）降水减少5%～20%,河套、内蒙古和华北北部减少20%～40%,东北南部、淮河流域、西北大部增加10%～40%及以上,东南沿海和台湾省降水增加10%～20%。以上降水预估结果说明,在RCP4.5情景下,21世纪前期持续十年的西南干旱会略有缓解,但南方降水偏少格局变化不大,淮河流域和三江源区及其以西等地降水可能明显增加。中国降水异常分布总体呈现南北少、中间多的格局,但北方和西部高山地带的降水预估存在较大的不确定性。  相似文献   

利用空间相关性进行天气雷达波束阻挡数据的识别和订正     

黄兴友  马雷  杨敏  印佳楠  刘燕斐 《气象科学》2019,39(4):532-539

波束阻挡影响了天气雷达数据的质量,使雷达的导出产品存在误差。根据雷达观测数据的空间相关性,提出了不依赖于高精度数字高程模型的波束阻挡识别和订正算法,可以方便地用于天气雷达反射率因子的阻挡订正。对于部分阻挡或小范围完全阻挡造成的回波数据不准确情况,先进行阻挡识别,再进行线性插值处理,实现对阻挡数据的订正。论文建立了阻挡识别算法和阻挡订正算法,并利用雷达数据进行了对比验证。结果表明:利用本文的算法,可以有效地对阻挡数据进行订正,提高了雷达数据质量。  相似文献   

大小兴安岭林区风场动力降尺度对比研究     

孟莹莹  曹殿斌  吴岩  王子洋 《气象与环境学报》2019,35(4):8-15

对2017年春季黑龙江省大、小兴安岭林区的6个代表站点10 m风场进行降尺度分析,并结合观测数据对比分析了WRF模式和CALMET降尺度模式的10 m风速、风向预报结果。结果表明：两模式逐小时风速预报与观测的相关系数为0.5-0.7,且随着风速的增加,模式的预报准确率逐渐提高,夜间的风速预报偏差较大,进入白天后,偏差明显减小。WRF模式对风速变化趋势的预报效果优于CALMET模式,与观测的风速相关性更高,而CALMET模式对较大风速的预报效果优于WRF模式。在风向预报方面,WRF和CALMET的风向模拟与观测风向均有较好的一致性,模式预报准确率较高的两个风向也刚好对应各站的盛行风向。同时,本文用回归方法对日平均风速进行订正发现,订正后各站的日平均风速预报准确率平均提高了50%,具有较好的业务应用价值。  相似文献   

OSTIA数据在中国近海业务化环流模型中的同化应用   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

纪棋严  朱学明  王辉  刘桂梅  高姗  季轩梁  徐青 《海洋学报(英文版)》2015,34(7):54-64

The prediction of sea surface temperature(SST) is an essential task for an operational ocean circulation model. A sea surface heat flux, an initial temperature field, and boundary conditions directly affect the accuracy of a SST simulation. Here two quick and convenient data assimilation methods are employed to improve the SST simulation in the domain of the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea(BYECS). One is based on a surface net heat flux correction, named as Qcorrection(QC), which nudges the flux correction to the model equation; the other is ensemble optimal interpolation(En OI), which optimizes the model initial field. Based on such two methods, the SST data obtained from the operational SST and sea ice analysis(OSTIA) system are assimilated into an operational circulation model for the coastal seas of China. The results of the simulated SST based on four experiments, in 2011, have been analyzed. By comparing with the OSTIA SST, the domain averaged root mean square error(RMSE) of the four experiments is 1.74, 1.16, 1.30 and 0.91°C, respectively; the improvements of assimilation experiments Exps 2, 3 and 4 are about 33.3%, 25.3%, and 47.7%, respectively.Although both two methods are effective in assimilating the SST, the En OI shows more advantages than the QC,and the best result is achieved when the two methods are combined. Comparing with the observational data from coastal buoy stations, show that assimilating the high-resolution satellite SST products can effectively improve the SST prediction skill in coastal regions.  相似文献   

AltiKa Radiometer: Instrument Description and In–Flight Performance     

N. Steunou  N. Picot  P. Sengenes  J. Noubel  M.L. Frery 《Marine Geodesy》2015,38(3):43-61

On 25 February 2013, the Satellite for Argos and AltiKa (SARAL) was launched from the Indian Sriharikota launch site. The AltiKa payload consisted of an altimeter and a radiometer. This paper describes the AltiKa radiometer. This instrument has been studied for several years by CNES, TAS-F, ASTRIUM-F and a set of science laboratories, and AltiKa is the first compact instrument embedding simultaneously the altimeter and radiometer functions. AltiKa radiometer is a dual frequency instrument working in K (23.8 GHz) and Ka band (37 GHz), it is based on the total power principle, with direct detection receivers. On-ground acceptance tests exhibited a very high level of performance: less than 0.2 dB has been estimated for both sensitivity and absolute accuracy in both frequencies. This paper focuses on the in-flight performances that have been observed since the launch. All the instrument observable characterizations are nominal, and in-flight sensitivity has been estimated lower than 0.2 K.  相似文献   

一种GNSS坐标基准偏差估计的融合方法     

张清华  王源  孙阳阳  陈正生 《地理信息世界》2015,(3)

针对不同GNSS的坐标基准的差异问题,分析其产生来源及常用的偏差参数估计方法,提出了综合地面点法和星历法两者优点的融合算法。为了验证本文提出的融合算法的适用性和精度,算例采用NGA和IGS提供的2013年1月1日~1月14日共两周的数据,其中,包含分布在全球的34个IGS测站,结果表明,融合算法具有更高的精度和更好的稳定性。  相似文献   

An improved atmospheric correction algorithm for applying MERIS data to very turbid inland waters     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2015

Atmospheric correction (AC) is a necessary process when quantitatively monitoring water quality parameters from satellite data. However, it is still a major challenge to carry out AC for turbid coastal and inland waters. In this study, we propose an improved AC algorithm named N-GWI (new standard Gordon and Wang’s algorithms with an iterative process and a bio-optical model) for applying MERIS data to very turbid inland waters (i.e., waters with a water-leaving reflectance at 864.8 nm between 0.001 and 0.01). The N-GWI algorithm incorporates three improvements to avoid certain invalid assumptions that limit the applicability of the existing algorithms in very turbid inland waters. First, the N-GWI uses a fixed aerosol type (coastal aerosol) but permits aerosol concentration to vary at each pixel; this improvement omits a complicated requirement for aerosol model selection based only on satellite data. Second, it shifts the reference band from 670 nm to 754 nm to validate the assumption that the total absorption coefficient at the reference band can be replaced by that of pure water, and thus can avoid the uncorrected estimation of the total absorption coefficient at the reference band in very turbid waters. Third, the N-GWI generates a semi-analytical relationship instead of an empirical one for estimation of the spectral slope of particle backscattering. Our analysis showed that the N-GWI improved the accuracy of atmospheric correction in two very turbid Asian lakes (Lake Kasumigaura, Japan and Lake Dianchi, China), with a normalized mean absolute error (NMAE) of less than 22% for wavelengths longer than 620 nm. However, the N-GWI exhibited poor performance in moderately turbid waters (the NMAE values were larger than 83.6% in the four American coastal waters). The applicability of the N-GWI, which includes both advantages and limitations, was discussed.  相似文献