地震前兆台网观测数据质量分析——中国地震背景场探测项目实施     

余丹  纪寿文 《地震地磁观测与研究》2017,38(6):52-56

地震前兆台网的运行直接影响产出的观测数据质量。观测数据平均连续率和平均数据完整率可以反映地震前兆台网的运行质量。对中国地震背景场探测项目试行期间(2014年)及正式启动后2015年度的观测数据质量,从以上2个指标进行分析,并对比原有仪器运行质量,可知背景场项目试运行期间,各学科台网投入仪器运行稳定,观测数据符合相关要求,总体质量良好,观测仪器可以投入正式运行。  相似文献   

怀来2井水氡前兆异常特征分析     

张凤秋 《华北地震科学》2001,19(1):64-66

首先介绍了1998年张北6．2级地震前怀来2井水氡的异常变化，又根据水氡异常与京西地区几次中强震的对应情况，归纳出怀来2井的水氡前兆异常特征；形态为下降一上升型，异常对应范围120－160km；异常出现后28－55d发震等。  相似文献   

破裂带发展的扫描电镜实验研究及其对地震前兆的启示   总被引：17，自引：0，他引：17  

赵永红  黄杰藩 《地球物理学报》1993,36(4):453-462

在扫描电镜下对带割缝的大理岩试件进行了单轴压缩实验.在加载的全过程中,观察了试件表面裂纹的产生、扩展、平面分布以及断裂扩展前缘处的微裂纹在主断裂扩展前后的开、闭变化,并分析了它们与外载之间的关系.在显微照片上量测了主断裂的宽度随外载水平及测点所在部位的变化规律.在实验测定和结果分析的基础上,解释了脆性岩石材料在宏观裂纹扩展时的断裂能明显偏离线弹性断裂力学预测值的原因,提出了以标量作为岩石损伤力学中的损伤量的设想,探讨了实验结果对了解地震前兆（如大地形变和地下水位异常）可能起到的作用.将实验观察到的微破裂活动与1975年海城7.3级地震前地下水位异常做了对比分析,发现两者在时空分布方面有许多相似之处.  相似文献   

A REGIONAL MODEL STUDY OF THE VARIATIONS AND DISTRIBUTIONS OF OZONE AND ITS PRECURSORS ON EASTERN ASIA AND WEST PACIFIC OCEAN REGIONS          下载免费PDF全文

罗超)  周秀骥) 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1994,(2)

A simulated study of mechanism for variations and distributions of ozone and its precursors was made by using thethree-dimensional regional Eulerian model.The results showed that the ozone production was controlled by NO,butthere is a complicated nonlinear relation between them.The photochemical reactions controlled by solar radiation arethe determinative factors affecting the variations of the surface ozone and its precursors.The relations of ozone and CO,PAN were studied.We compared the simulated and observed results during the PEM-WEST A in order to better under-stand the photochemical processes of ozone and its precursors.  相似文献   

Long-range Earthquake Forecasting with Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale     

David A.?RhoadesEmail author  Frank F.?Evison 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2004,161(1):47-72

Scaling relations previously derived from examples of the precursory scale increase before major earthquakes show that the precursor is a long-term predictor of the time, magnitude, and location of the major earthquake. These relations are here taken as the basis of a stochastic forecasting model in which every earthquake is regarded as a precursor. The problem of identifying those earthquakes that are actually precursory is thus set aside, at the cost of limiting the strength of the resulting forecast. The contribution of an individual earthquake to the future distribution of hazard in time, magnitude and location is on a scale determined, through the scaling relations, by its magnitude. Provision is made for a contribution to be affected by other earthquakes close in time and location, e.g., an aftershock may be given low weight. Using the New Zealand catalogue, the model has been fitted to the forecasting of shallow earthquakes exceeding magnitude 5.75 over the period 1965–2000. It fits the data much better than a baseline Poisson model with a location distribution based on proximity to the epicenters of past earthquakes. Further, the model has been applied, with unchanged parameters, to the California region over the period 1975–2001. There also, it performs much better than the baseline model fitted to the same region over the period 1951–1974; the likelihood ratio is 10¹⁵ in favor of the present model. These results lend credence to the precursory scale increase phenomenon, and show that the scaling relations are pervasive in earthquake catalogues. The forecasting model provides a new baseline model against which future refinements, and other proposed models, can be tested. It may also prove to be useful in practice. Its applicability to other regions has still to be established.  相似文献   

光化学臭氧日变化特征与其前体物关系的探讨   总被引：18，自引：2，他引：18  

朱彬  安俊岭  王自发  李一 《南京气象学院学报》2006,29(6):744-749

应用大气光化学模式研究了日最大臭氧体积分数及其出现时刻与其前体物NMHC、NOx体积分数及NMHC／NOx比值的关系。结果表明，影响日最大臭氧体积分数（ψ03max）脊线位置（EKMA图，Empirical Kinetic Modeling Approach）的关键因子是NMHC成份组成比例；日臭氧体积分数达到最大值需要的时间（τ03max）与NMHC／NOx比值及NMHC成份组成比例有关，与NMHC、NOx体积分数关系不大。此外，利用该结果解释了近20a北京日最大臭氧体积分数出现时刻具有不断提前的变化趋势的原因。  相似文献   

Fault Geometry and Departure of Precursors From the Epicenter   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Ma Jin  Liu Liqiang  and Ma ShengliInstitute of Geology  SSB  Beijing  China 《中国地震研究》1998,(1)

Different tectonic elements may play different roles and their deformation styles and types of anomalies are also different in the process of deformation.Such differences may be the cause of the phenomena of the departure from the region with obvious anomalies from the coming epicenter,which are called "departure of precursors from epicenter." From some new experimental and numerical modeling results,five types of deformation elements are identified according to their roles in the process of deformation in a region.They are the brake(or locked),slip,yield,sensitive,and valve elements.Spatial distribution of different elements,especially sensitive and slip elements,are discussed by taking the bend fault,extension,compression,and complex en-echelon faults as examples.These elements with different roles may overlap each other in some cases or be separated in other cases.It is obvious that for different fault geometry,the spatial layout of these elements is different and thus the position and style of possi  相似文献   

Volcanic tremor at Mt. Etna: State-of-the-art and perspectives     

S. Gresta  S. Imposa  D. Patané  G. Patané 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1987,125(6):1079-1095

Volcanic tremor on Etna seems to have its origin within the main magma feeding system. On the basis of both spectral analyses at two permanent seismic stations and periodical measurements along the slopes of the volcano, two distinct sources are proposed. The former, characterized by low frequency contents (f<1.5 Hz), is located in a 2 km deep flat magma chamber, whereas the latter source seems to be linked to the upper part of the active vents.Turbulent motions in the magma-gas mixture, induced by escaping gases within the conduits, is one proposed cause of volcanic tremor on Etna (Seidl et al., 1981).From spectral analyses we propose approximate models of the feeding system of the main summit craters.Time variations of tremor energy were also investigated, and no regular patterns have been observed for the studied eruptions.More systematic information seems to be needed for a better knowledge of both the source model and location, and correlation between tremor features and volcanic activity.  相似文献   

Comparison of the EMEP, RADM2 and RACM Mechanisms     

Allan Gross  William R. Stockwell 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2003,44(2):151-170

A comparison of the atmospheric chemistry mechanisms EMEP (Co-operative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-Range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe), RADM2 (Regional Acid Deposition Model, version 2) and RACM (Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism) has been conducted. Each mechanism was used to simulate the PLUME case of Kuhn et al. (1998) and to simulate an additional 150 and 81 scenarios with and without emissions, respectively. These simulations covered scenarios that ranged from relatively clean, through rural and polluted urban conditions. Ozone isopleths and scatter plots were generated from the simulations. The mechanisms were compared primarily on the basis of calculated ozone and ozone precursor concentrations. For the gas-phase ozone precursors the differences between the mechanisms were rather small under clean conditions and more significant under polluted conditions. The differences were especially significant for the concentrations of NO₂ and organic peroxy radicals. In general the EMEP mechanism yielded the most ozone and the RADM2 mechanism yielded the least. Furthermore the results suggest that a broad range simulation conditions should be used to compare mechanisms and not just a few selected scenarios.  相似文献   

Slow earthquakes and great earthquakes along the Nankai trough   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Alan T Linde  I.Selwyn Sacks 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2002,203(1):265-275

We have reexamined reports indicating that slow deformation occurred before the great Japan earthquakes of 1944 (Tonankai) and 1946 (Nankaido) and find that the observations are well founded. Although no quantitative models have previously been proposed to explain all of the relevant data we show that they are satisfied by a simple model for both earthquakes. The model, based on known properties of subduction zones, has slow slip on the subduction interface in an area deeper than the seismic rupture. If this model is correct and a similar physical situation holds for an anticipated Tokai earthquake, existing instruments will be able to reveal the pre-slip in real time. While differences among the deformation time series at different sites will provide strong constraints on the slow rupture propagation, these differences could result in delaying the recognition of a coherent event.  相似文献