Study of directivity effect on electromagnetic emissions in the HF band as earthquake precursors: Preliminary results on field observations     

I. Stavrakas  M. Clarke  G. Koulouras  G. Stavrakakis  C. Nomicos   《Tectonophysics》2007,431(1-4):263

This work focuses on the use of electromagnetic emissions (EM) in the HF band as a warning event for earthquakes. EM at HF components 41 MHz and 46 MHz were monitored and recorded from eight field stations in Greece and correlated with seismological events. Directivity effect raised since EM emissions at specific station locations were correlated to earthquake events from prescribed regions. EM recordings during 1999 were used and by visual inspection were associated to most of the earthquake events greater than 5R. Using these observations a novel algorithm based on the ratio of short term to long term signal average, together with a prediction rules set derived from 1999's EM emissions study were developed to combine results from several field stations. Performance of the system was promising, but was dependent on the geographic area of interest. Overall performance for earthquakes events of magnitude greater than 5.7 R was 75% of seismic events were correctly predicted by EM activity, while 25% were not predicted.  相似文献   

Test of the EEPAS Forecasting Model on the Japan Earthquake Catalogue     

David A. Rhoades  Frank F. Evison 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2005,162(6-7):1271-1290

The EEPAS (Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale) model is a method of forecasting earthquakes based on the notion that the precursory scale increase () phenomenon occurs at all scales in the seismogenic process. The rate density of future earthquake occurrence is computed directly from past earthquakes in the catalogue. The EEPAS model has previously been fitted to the New Zealand earthquake catalogue and successfully tested on the California catalogue.Here we describe a further test of the EEPAS model in the Japan region spanning 1965–2001, initially on earthquakes with magnitudes exceeding the threshold value 6.75. A baseline model and the Gutenberg-Richter b-value were fitted to the JMA catalogue over the learning period 1926–1964. The performance of EEPAS, with the key parameters unchanged from the New Zealand values, was compared with that of the baseline model over the testing period, using a likelihood ratio criterion. The EEPAS model proved superior. A sensitivity analysis shows that this result is not sensitive to the choice of the learning period or b-value, but that the advantage of EEPAS over the baseline model diminishes as the magnitude threshold is lowered. When key model parameters are optimised for the Japan catalogue, the advantage of EEPAS over the baseline model is consistent for all magnitudes above 6.25, although less than in the New Zealand and California regions.These results add strength to the proposition that the EEPAS model is effective at a variety of scales and in a variety of seismically active regions.  相似文献   

西宁地震台前兆观测干扰分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王永刚  李滔  马辉青  孙丽  丁宁霞 《高原地震》2013,25(2):26-30

对西宁地震台2008年1月至2013年5月各前兆测项受到的干扰情况进行了分析,认为周边环境以及气压突变和雷电等气象因素未造成干扰,存在的干扰主要是人为干扰和观测技术系统干扰。  相似文献   

The typical seismic behavior in the vicinity of a large earthquake     

《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2016

The Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog (GCMT) was used to construct the spatio-temporal generalized vicinity of a large earthquake (GVLE) and to investigate the behavior of seismicity in GVLE. The vicinity is made of earthquakes falling into the zone of influence of a large number (100, 300, or 1000) of largest earthquakes. The GVLE construction aims at enlarging the available statistics, diminishing a strong random component, and revealing typical features of pre- and post-shock seismic activity in more detail. As a result of the GVLE construction, the character of fore- and aftershock cascades was examined in more detail than was possible without of the use of the GVLE approach. As well, several anomalies in the behavior exhibited by a variety of earthquake parameters were identified. The amplitudes of all these anomalies increase with the approaching time of the generalized large earthquake (GLE) as the logarithm of the time interval from the GLE occurrence. Most of the discussed anomalies agree with common features well expected in the evolution of instability. In addition to these common type precursors, one earthquake-specific precursor was found. The decrease in mean earthquake depth presumably occurring in a smaller GVLE probably provides evidence of a deep fluid being involved in the process. The typical features in the evolution of shear instability as revealed in GVLE agree with results obtained in laboratory studies of acoustic emission (AE). The majority of the anomalies in earthquake parameters appear to have a secondary character, largely connected with an increase in mean magnitude and decreasing fraction of moderate size events (mw5.0–6.0) in the immediate GLE vicinity. This deficit of moderate size events could hardly be caused entirely by their incomplete reporting and can presumably reflect some features in the evolution of seismic instability.  相似文献   

地震电磁辐射观测是短临预测重要手段之一     

希玉久 《国际地震动态》2009,(7):39-46

地震和火山活动是具有相同属性的自然现象,观测表明,在大地震及火山喷发之前的几天或几小时,均呈现有非常宽频谱的电磁辐射和电离层异常现象。本文重点描述了地震前后存在从零开始相当宽频谱的地震电磁辐射以及电离层异常等现象,并提出可利用电离层异常的观测和采用不同频段上地震电磁辐射的立体监测网,作为地震的短临预测、预报手段是现实、可行的。同时还提出了加强我国地震电磁辐射观测研究的建议。  相似文献   

Precursory groundwater level changes in the period of activation of the weak intraplate seismic activity on the NE margin of the Bohemian Massif (central Europe) in 2005     

Vladimír Stejskal  Ladislav Kašpárek  Galina N. Kopylova  Alexei A. Lyubushin  Lumír Skalský 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2009,53(2):215-238

tWe analyse continuous measurements of groundwater level in two deep wells VS-3 and V-28 at the experimental hydro-meteorological station situated on the NE margin of the Bohemian Massif, central Europe, characterized by the weak intraplate seismic activity. The aim of our study is to examine the relationships between changes in the groundwater level and earthquake occurrence. Based on the tidal and barometric response of the water level, we estimated selected elastic parameters of the observed aquifers: the shear modulus G, the Skempton ratio B, the drained matrix compressibility β and the undrained compressibility β_u. Using these parameters and assuming the homogeneous poroelastic material, we derived the sensitivity of the wells to the crustal volume strain. During the observation period from November 1998 to December 2005 we detected in the VS-3 well two pre-seismic steps, related to August 10, 2005 (M = 2.4) and October 25, 2005 (M = 3.3) earthquakes. Amplitudes of the recorded precursory changes (+6 cm and +15 cm) are several times higher than the values predicted from the theoretical precursory crustal strain and the strain sensitivity of the well. Therefore, we presume that the observed pre-seismic water level steps can be attributed to heterogeneity of poroelastic material. We consequently propose the hypothesis of the origin of precursory events based on the presumption of a sensitive site, at which the well is situated.  相似文献   

Alarm-Seismo 3 automated monitoring station     

S. A. Maltsev  M. V. Stepanov 《Seismic Instruments》2009,45(1):95-104

An automated hardware-software station was designed at the Institute of Physics of the Earth (Moscow, Russia) for the continuous monitoring of a low-frequency electromagnetic background in a low atmosphere. The electromagnetic signal is processed in real time and an attempt is made to find and confirm the possible precursors of earthquakes. The basic concepts of electromagnetic earthquake precursors are described, as well as a technique of data recording and processing for obtaining the most accurate prediction. The design of the station is based on up-to-date hardware components and can be integrated with additional detectors if necessary. It is assumed that stations can be combined within monitoring networks of different scales. The net cost of the station is relatively low because only mainstream components are used.  相似文献   

Seismo-meteo-electromagnetic phenomena observed during a 5-year interval around the 2011 Tohoku earthquake     

《Physics and Chemistry of the Earth》2015

The purpose of the paper is to try to find ULF electromagnetic precursors to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (EQ), on the basis of extensive investigation of radiations in vertical component of the magnetic field or with a large ratio of the vertical to full horizontal component. Nighttime records have been analyzed of three Japanese fluxgate magnetometers located in a distance from 300 to 1300 km from the epicenter of the main shock, and the frequency range from 10 to 150 mHz was used for the analysis. We have applied wavelet analyses to improve the detection of pulsed signals. All obtained scalograms have been averaged over the nighttime interval from 01 h to 05 h JST and flattened by means of multiplication by square of frequency. The sequence of spectra thus obtained has been compared with the evolution of seismicity, which has resulted in that the radiation in the vertical component has been detected. It exhibits seasonal variations with winter maxima, but it increases further by approaching the moment of the EQ and decreases after that. This radiation seems to be correlated with atmospheric parameters – air humidity, temperature, vapor pressure and rainfall. So, we consider that this radiation cannot be caused by subsurface sources, but its possible sources can be atmospheric discharges. The evolution of this phenomenon can be explained by a seasonal variation of atmospheric parameters and also its variations under the influence of injection of gas from the focal zone of a forthcoming EQ.  相似文献   

Changes in the Diffuse CO2 Emission and Relation to Seismic Activity in and around El Hierro, Canary Islands     

Eleazar Padrón  Gladys Melián  Rayco Marrero  Dácil Nolasco  José Barrancos  Germán Padilla  Pedro A. Hernández  Nemesio M. Pérez 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2008,165(1):95-114

Significant changes in the diffuse emission of carbon dioxide were recorded in a geochemical station located at El Hierro, Canary Islands, before the occurrence of several seismic events during 2004. Two precursory CO₂ efflux increases started thirteen and nine days before two seismic events of magnitude 2.3 and 1.7, which took place near El Hierro Island, Canary Islands, on March 23 and April 15, reaching a maximun value of 51.1 and 46.2 g m⁻² d⁻¹, respectively, five and eight days before the two seismic events. Other similar increases started thirteen and five days before the occurrence of two seismic events of magnitude 1.3 and 1.5 which took place on October 15 and 21 respectively, reaching the maximum values four and one day before the earthquakes. These changes were not related to variations in atmospheric or soil parameters. The Material Failure Forecast Method (FFM), which analyzes the rate of precursory phenomena, was successfully applied to forecast the first seismic event that took place in El Hierro Island in 2004.  相似文献   

苍山5.2MS级地震应力应变异常特性     

赵淑平  孔向阳 《地震研究》1999,22(1):38-41

分析了１９９５年９月２０日山东苍山５．２级地震前,距震中≤２５０ｋｍ范围内,钻孔应力应变台网的异常显示特征。探讨了该次地震前的短临异常特性及其与发震构造体系的关系,并对台网内无异常显示的台站进行客观分析。  相似文献