Application of Dangerous Probability Function in Risk Estimation of Surface Rupture Earthquake：Taking the Lingwu Fault in Ningxi1 Region as on Example     

Chai Chizhang  Zhang Wenxiao  Liao Yuhu  Xu Wenjun  Shen Xuhui  Tian Qinjian  Wei Kaibo  Chen Zhengwei 《中国地震研究》2002,16(1):60-70

Based on the fitting on paleoearthquake data of intra-plate regions in the northern part of Chi-na and giving a statistical model of time interdependence,the potential damage earthquakes in a definite future period and characteristics of present shocks along the Lingwu fault have been analyzed by using dangerous probability function and some new data concerned.We have in-ferred that the fault has entered a period that earthquakes will probably occur.There exists a potential danger that a strong earthquake with Ms7.0-7.5 will occur in 10-100a.  相似文献   

河流水质风险评价的灰色-随机风险率方法   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3  

胡国华  夏军  赵沛伦 《地理科学》2002,22(2):249-252

提出了量化影响河流水质的随机不确定性与灰色不确定性的水质超标灰色－随机风险率概念，建立了水质超标灰色－随机风险率评价模型。在水质单项参数评价模型中，将河流污染物浓度变量的分布处理成灰色概率分布，将污染物浓度超过水质类别标准值的风险率处理成灰色概率，即水质超标灰色－随机风险率。在水质综合评价模型中，河流水环境系统被考虑为担任某一使用可能的可靠性系统，而任意一种水质参数超标意味着河流水体使用功能不能得到应有的保证，也即表明水体综合评价超标，最后借鉴系统可靠性分析的理论和方法计算水质综合超标率。该方法应用于黄河花园口断面重金属污染风险评价。  相似文献   

砂岩铀矿的自相似结构     

戴杰敏 《矿物岩石地球化学通报》2003,22(1):47-55

改变统计域，矿化参数的概率分布型式和相关关系并不改变，形成自相似的无穷嵌套的层次结构图像。本以上第三系陆相砂岩铀矿床为例，从统计意义上说明矿化空间分布的自相似结构。  相似文献   

巴东长江公路大桥桥位边坡稳定可靠性研究     

丛培夫  杨志波 《世界地质》2003,22(3):303-308

以巴东长江公路大桥桥位边坡为例，在前人稳定性评价的基础上，建立了基于剩余推力法和Sarma法的边坡稳定可靠性分析模型，分析表明边坡系统可靠性指标(β，Pf)能更准确地表达边坡稳定性、安全性和工程风险水平。  相似文献   

基于自然水系网信息的元素运移分析     

侯遵泽  徐振邦 《物探化探计算技术》2003,25(1):65-69

地面上的矿物或污染物元素主要是随水系而运移的。因此，利用自然水系网信息来定量分析元素沿水系的迁移、分散，对于地质找矿和环境保护都具有重要意义。在研究应用主概率权模拟模型产生自然水系网的基础上，提出了元素在水系网中运移的计算方法，结合所模拟出的水系网，具体分析了元素在其中的迁移、扩散情况，给出了正问题和反问题的计算结果。结果表明，正、反问题的求解具有一致性，方法是有效、可行的。  相似文献   

Facies Clustering in Turbidite Successions: Case Study from Andaman Flysch Group, Andaman Islands, India     

Basab Mukhopadhyay  Partha Pratim Chakraborty  Soumen Paul 《Gondwana Research》2003,6(4):918-925

Bed thickness data of two turbidite sections viz., Corbyn's Cove section, South Andaman and Kalipur section, North Andaman those belong to Oligocene Andaman Flysch Group, a forearc submarine fan system, were assessed for facies clustering employing Hurst statistics. Both the sections show Hurst phenomenon and reveal clustering in terms of thick and thin beds. Forcing behind event (bed) depositions in either of the studied sections was assessed statistically and inferred to be non-random and with cyclicities of irregular physical length. The inferred paleogeography through Hurst criteria though worked well for distal fan setting i.e., basin floor sheet sandstones of Corbyn's Cove section, its unequivocal application in proximal fan deposits remains to be tested. The mismatch in paleogeographic interpretation between Hurst test result (lobe-interlobe) and field observation (channel-levee) for the inner fan deposit is explained through differential facies stacking between fans grow in sea-level lowstand and highstand. Lower bed amalgamation, poor sand to mud ratio and subordinately present thick event deposits may be the result of active growth of Andaman Flysch fan in sea level highstand and expressed in lower Hurst K value for inner fan channel-levee association (Kalipur section) compared to many of the channel-levee deposits of lowstand fan systems observed world over.  相似文献   

Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure using an integrated GIS Monte Carlo simulation approach   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

G. Zhou  T. Esaki  Y. Mitani  M. Xie  J. Mori 《Engineering Geology》2003,68(3-4):373-386

Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure using a combined Geographic Information System (GIS), infinite-slope stability model and Monte Carlo simulation approach is proposed and applied in the landslide-prone area of Sasebo city, southern Japan. A digital elevation model (DEM) for the study area has been created at a scale of 1/2500. Calculated results of slope angle and slope aspect derived from the DEM are discussed. Through the spatial interpolation of the identified stream network, the thickness distribution of the colluvium above Tertiary strata is determined with precision. Finally, by integrating an infinite-slope stability model and Monte Carlo simulation with GIS, and applying spatial processing, a slope failure probability distribution map is obtained for the case of both low and high water levels.  相似文献   

Reliability based risk index for the design of reinforced earth structures   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Adnan A. Basma  Samer A. Barakat  Maher T. Omar 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2003,21(3):225-242

The design methods currently used for earth reinforcement are mostly based on deterministic properties of both the soil and the construction materials used. Nowadays, however, the general trend is designing at a specific degree of reliability. This is even more true where the raw data such as soil properties exhibit significant variation. Deterministic solutions, in this case, may not suffice. Therefore, this paper will attempt to use probabilistic formulations thereby modifying the existing design procedure of reinforced earth retaining walls to account for uncertainties and variabilities. Through a first order Taylor's series expansion about the mean, the mean and variance of the strip reinforcing components, namely width and length, are derived in terms of the variations in the soil properties. Design charts that enable estimation of both mean and variance are developed to avoid extensive partial differentiation involved in the computations. Using appropriate probability distributions along with the mean and variance, the final design outputs are determined for a selected failure probability by introducing what is refered to as 'risk index'. The results indicate that the risk index increases with an increase in the coefficient of variations and a decrease in failure probability. Furthermore, it is shown that in some cases, depending on the variabilities of the soil properties, the classical design technique produced a relatively high failure probability. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.  相似文献   

Compositional Geometry and Mass Conservation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Robert F. Shurtz 《Mathematical Geology》2003,35(8):927-937

A geometrical structure is imposed on compositional data by physical and chemical laws, principally mass conservation. Therefore, statistical or mathematical investigation of possible relations between data values and such laws must be consistent with this structure. This demands that geometrical concepts, such as points that specify both mass and composition in linear space, and lines in projective space that specify composition only, be clearly defined and consistent with mass conservation. Mass thus becomes the norm in composition space in place of the Euclidean norm of ordinary space. Coordinate transformations inconsistent with this geometry are accordingly unnatural and misleading. They are also unnecessary because correlation arising from the constant mass presents no unusual difficulty in the analysis of the underlying quadratic form.  相似文献   

A statistical approach to evaluating distance metrics and analog assignments for pollen records     

Daniel G. Gavin  W. Wyatt Oswald  Eugene R. Wahl  John W. Williams 《Quaternary Research》2003,60(3):356-367

The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog.  相似文献