STUDY ON THE MULTIVARIATE STATISTICAL ESTIMATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY USING FY-3 MWRI BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE DATA     

张淼  邱红  方翔  卢乃锰 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2017,23(2):146-154

A technique for estimating tropical cyclone (TC) intensity over the Western North Pacific utilizing FY-3 Microwave Imager (MWRI) data is developed. As a first step, we investigated the relationship between the FY-3 MWRI brightness temperature (TB) parameters, which are computed in concentric circles or annuli of different radius in different MWRI frequencies, and the TC maximum wind speed (Vmax) from the TC best track data. We found that the parameters of lower frequency channels’ minimum TB, mean TB and ratio of pixels over the threshold TB with a radius of 1.0 or 1.5 degrees from the center give higher correlation. Then by applying principal components analysis (PCA) and multiple regression method, we established an estimation model and evaluated it using independent verification data, with the RMSE being 13 kt. The estimated Vmax is always stronger in the early stages of development, but slightly weaker toward the mature stage, and a reversal of positive and negative bias takes place with a boundary of around 70 kt. For the TC that has a larger error, we found that they are often with less organized and asymmetric cloud pattern, so the classification of TC cloud pattern will help improve the acuracy of the estimated TC intensity, and with the increase of statistical samples the accuracy of the estimated TC intensity will also be improved.  相似文献   

徒骇河工程取水的定量研究     

边淑华  胡泽建 《海岸工程》2003,22(2):15-21

采用数值模拟和水力学模型，对沾化电厂扩建后徒骇河供水能力进行了定量计算．通过分析取水前后典型站位及河道沿程水位、流量的变化，对影响取水的因素进行了初步探讨，对增大取水量的工程措施提出了建议。  相似文献   

Cretaceous continental margin evolution revealed using quantitative seismic geomorphology,offshore northwest Africa     

Max Casson  Grme Calvs  Mads Huuse  Ben Sayers  Jonathan Redfern 《Basin Research》2021,33(1):66-90

The application of high‐resolution seismic geomorphology, integrated with lithological data from the continental margin offshore The Gambia, northwest Africa, documents a complex tectono‐stratigraphic history through the Cretaceous. This reveals the spatial‐temporal evolution of submarine canyons by quantifying the related basin depositional elements and providing an estimate of intra‐ versus extra‐basinal sediment budget. The margin developed from the Jurassic to Aptian as a carbonate escarpment. Followed by, an Albian‐aged wave‐dominated delta system that prograded to the palaeo‐shelf edge. This is the first major delivery of siliciclastic sediment into the basin during the evolution of the continental margin, with increased sediment input linked to exhumation events of the hinterland. Subaqueous channel systems (up to 320 m wide) meandered through the pro‐delta region reaching the palaeo‐shelf edge, where it is postulated they initiated early submarine canyonisation of the margin. The canyonisation was long‐lived (ca. 28 Myr) dissecting the inherited seascape topography. Thirteen submarine canyons can be mapped, associated with a Late Cretaceous‐aged regional composite unconformity (RCU), classified as shelf incised or slope confined. Major knickpoints within the canyons and the sharp inflection point along the margin are controlled by the lithological contrast between carbonate and siliciclastic subcrop lithologies. Analysis of the base‐of‐slope deposits at the terminus of the canyons identifies two end‐member lobe styles, debris‐rich and debris‐poor, reflecting the amount of carbonate detritus eroded and redeposited from the escarpment margin (blocks up to ca. 1 km³). The vast majority of canyon‐derived sediment (97%) in the base‐of‐slope is interpreted as locally derived intra‐basinal material. The average volume of sediment bypassed through shelf‐incised canyons is an order of magnitude higher than the slope‐confined systems. These results document a complex mixed‐margin evolution, with seascape evolution, sedimentation style and volume controlled by shelf‐margin collapse, far‐field tectonic activity and the effects of hinterland rejuvenation of the siliciclastic source.  相似文献   

基于地理探测器的浑善达克沙地植被变化定量归因   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

马永桃  任孝宗  胡慧芳  刘敏  孟琪 《中国沙漠》2021,41(4):195-204

开展区域植被覆盖变化及驱动机制研究具有重要的意义。选取浑善达克沙地为研究区,基于地理探测器模型,定量研究了7个驱动因子对区域植被变化的单独影响及交互影响。结果表明：（1）2000—2018年,浑善达克沙地68.83%的区域植被覆盖在增加,其中显著增加的区域集中在研究区的中部和南部,即阿巴嘎旗、锡林浩特市、正蓝旗、正镶白旗和多伦县。（2）相对湿度和降水量是影响区域植被覆盖的主要自然因素,解释力分别达到了56.6%和49.5%。累计造林面积密度和年末牲畜头数密度是影响区域植被覆盖的主要人类因素,解释力分别达到了49.1%和46.4%,表明生态工程的实施对区域植被覆盖变化产生了重要的影响。（3）不同因子之间的交互作用决定值q均大于每个单独因子的决定值q,表明驱动因子的两两交互作用均会增加对区域植被变化的解释力。其中,相对湿度和人类活动因子（累计造林面积密度、年末牲畜头数密度和人口密度）,降水量和年末牲畜头数密度均以双协同为主,解释力均超过了60%。而平均气温和年末牲畜头数密度以非线性协同为主,解释力也达到了60%以上。  相似文献   

Quantitative relationship between channels and bars in a tidal reach of the lower Yangtze River: Implications for river management     

YANG Yunping  ZHENG Jinhai  ZHANG Wei  ZHU Yude  CHAI Yuanfang  WANG Jianjun  WEN Yuncheng 《地理学报(英文版)》2021,31(12):1837-1851

Deep-water navigation channels in the tidal reaches of the lower Yangtze River are affected by water and sediment fluxes that produce complex shoals and unstable channel conditions. The Fujiangsha reach is particularly difficult to manage, as it has many braided channels within the tidal fluctuation zone. In this study, hydrologic and topographic data from the Fujiangsha reach from 2012 to 2017 were used to examine the variations in deposition and erosion, flow diversion, shoals, and channel conditions. Since the Three Gorges Dam became operational and water storage was initiated, the Fujiangsha reach has shown an overall tendency toward erosion. Channels deeper than 10 m accounted for 83.7% of the total erosion of the Fujiangsha reach during 2012–2017. Moreover, the dominant channel-forming sediments have gradually changed from suspended sediments to a mixed load of suspended and bed-load sediments. Deposition volumes of these sediments has varied significantly among different channels, but has mainly occurred in the Fubei channel. Furthermore, periodic variations in the Jingjiang point bar have followed a deposition-erosion-deposition pattern, and the downstream Shuangjian shoal mid-channel bar has been scoured and shortened. Approximately 44.0% of the bed load from the upstream Fujiangsha reach is deposited within the 12.5-m deep Fubei channel. The increased erosion and river flow from the Jingjiang point bar and the Shuangjian shoal during the flood season constituted 59.3% and 40.7%, respectively, of the total amount of siltation in the Fubei channel.  相似文献   

社会感知视角下的若干人文地理学基本问题再思考   总被引：17，自引：6，他引：11  

刘瑜 《地理学报》2016,71(4):564-575

近年来,不同类型大数据在地理研究中得到了越来越多的重视,许多学者基于手机、社交媒体、出租车等数据开展了大量实证研究。社会感知概念刻画了地理空间大数据基于大量人的行为时空模式获取地理环境特征的的技术手段,该手段有助于重新审视地理学研究中的一些基本问题,因而本文选择了空间分布和空间交互这两个基本地理概念以及定性方法和定量方法这两个人文地理基本研究方法展开讨论。大数据从微观个体和宏观群体两个层面同时感知空间分布和空间交互,可以定量分析其中的距离以及尺度效应。进而,由于小样本访谈人群和场所是定性研究的基础,而大数据可以通过定量方法识别特定人群和场所并进行刻画,因此,社会感知手段为集成定性和定量研究方法,构建混合地理学奠定了基础。  相似文献   

城市腹地定量识别研究进展与展望   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

彭建  陈云谦  胡智超  魏海 《地理科学进展》2016,35(1):14-24

城市与其腹地相互联系、相互作用,对城市腹地的准确识别有助于科学评估城市发展实力与潜力,已成为当前城市(群)空间发展战略制定的重要决策支撑。本文系统梳理了城市腹地概念内涵,从流度辐射区、城市吸引区,到中心地与腹地互动,再到中心地与腹地一体化的历史变化。在此基础上重点探讨了城市腹地定量识别的研究进展：识别对象从单一城市腹地转为城市群腹地,识别内容则从宽泛的综合腹地转向具体产业、金融、信息腹地等,识别方法为对传统场强模型的多要素修正。最后,将城市腹地定量识别研究展望概括为网络城市腹地与虚拟腹地识别、经济—生态—人文腹地的综合识别、遥感数据与非参数化模型的应用等3个方面。  相似文献   

塔里木盆地克深2气田储层构造裂缝定量预测     

王珂  戴俊生  王俊鹏  田福春  赵力彬  郇志鹏 《大地构造与成矿学》2016,(6):1123-1135

塔里木盆地克深2气田是克拉苏构造带继克拉2气田和大北气田又一重点勘探领域,构造裂缝对改善该气田低渗透砂岩储层物性具有重要作用。在构造裂缝基本特征分析的基础上,通过建立力学模型,综合古今构造应力场的数值模拟以及构造裂缝参数定量计算模型,对克深2气田的构造裂缝空间分布规律进行了定量预测,最后综合构造裂缝的岩心描述、成像测井解释以及定量预测结果,总结了构造裂缝的分布规律。结果显示,断层带是构造裂缝的有利发育区,多发育充填程度较高的网状缝;背斜高部位的构造裂缝走向复杂,线密度较低,但开度和孔隙度等物性参数较高且充填程度低,整体发育程度较强,背斜翼部及构造低部位的构造裂缝整体发育程度较低;鞍部构造裂缝可密集发育,但较高的充填程度限制了该部位的天然气产量;垂向上随深度增加,构造裂缝线密度逐渐增大而物性参数逐渐减小,构造裂缝的整体发育程度逐渐降低。构造裂缝参数的定量预测结果与实测结果整体上一致,但受多种因素影响,仍然有一定的误差。  相似文献   

城市与区域定量研究进展   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

顾朝林  张悦  翟炜  管卫华  李强  赵娜  刘晨 《地理科学进展》2016,35(12):1433-1446

本文系统地梳理了城市与区域的定量研究方法,主要包括数理模型和模拟方法、单个城市增长和动力系统研究、城市系统动力学模型及其发展过程模拟研究、空间一般均衡模型研究以及多模型复合/集成系统研究等。主要结论为：1950年以前的城市与区域研究主要采取时间序列预测法,依靠历史资料的时间数列进行趋势外推研究;1960-1970年代主要采用数理统计分析方法,应用人口统计学模型和线性回归方法进行研究;1970-1980年代,随着系统科学的发展,采用系统分析方法发展了诸如交通、人口、土地等专业模型,展开对城市与区域问题的深入分析;1990-2000年代,研究数据的获取手段得到极大的改善,利用数据模型、地计算分析、模拟预测等分析手段使得研究的深度和广度均有了长足进步。近年来,由于空间数据挖掘的突破,大数据、云计算和巨型模型系统开始进入城市与区域研究领域,多模型复合/集成系统研究成为主要研究方向。  相似文献   

小型气体质谱仪在中国大陆科学钻探钻井现场泥浆中气体的在线分析应用   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

李迎春  唐力君  王健  张宝科  李松  詹秀春  罗立强 《岩矿测试》2008,27(1):1-4

采用OmniStar型质谱仪在线分析CCSD钻井泥浆中的H2、He、O2、N2、Ar、CH4和CO2等气体组分。采用脱气器、大气平衡仪、气体流量剂、冷冻干燥等样品采集装置,通过合理的设计可以有效地采集到井下气体并且克服大气的污染,除去气体中的水分。根据OmniStar型质谱仪的分析原理及分析能力,建立了可靠的分析方法,其精密度优于2%,准确度高,分析周期为8 s,为科学研究提供了及时、可靠的数据。  相似文献