Lithological and geochemical record of anthropogenic changes in recent sediments of a small and shallow lake (Lake Pusty Staw,northern Poland)   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Wojciech Tylmann 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2005,33(3):313-325

The article presents the results of lithological and geochemical investigations of recent sediments of Lake Pusty Staw. The analysed sediments document about 300 years of the history of this lake. Historical materials indicate that significant changes in the catchment of the lake took place from the beginning of the 18th century (deforestation and afforestation) followed by 19th century tourist development, and 20th century industrialisation. The sediments were dated using the ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs method and core lithology. These made it possible to establish a reliable chronology to the year 1730. The calculated sedimentation rates ranged between 0.17 and 0.83 cm year^–1. There was a period of intensified erosion caused by land clearance between 1734 and 1810, which resulted in an acceleration in sedimentation rate (0.36 cm year^–1) and a change of lithological type of sediment from detritus gyttja to clayey gyttja. On the basis of Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb content in the sediments, it was determined that the beginning of pollution of the lake dates back to the 19th century and was caused probably by the existence of a health resort. A systematic increase in pollution occurred in the 20th century as a result of industrial plants. Normalised with respect to Al, the content of heavy metals in polluted sediments was from several to twenty times higher than in sediments of the preindustrial period, and a comparison of historical materials with changes of sediments in most cases made it possible to identify the direct causes of the increase in pollution.  相似文献   

AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT ON SOUTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC ISLANDS *     

Thomas W. Giambelluca  Dennis Nullet  Michael A. Nullet 《The Professional geographer》1988,40(4):404-415

A pilot study of spatial patterns of agricultural drought hazard in the south-central Pacific is presented. The durations of crop stress periods are estimated using a water balance approach. A rainfall approach is used to identify dry periods corresponding to different durations. Strong correlation between the results of the two methods indicates that monthly rainfall data are sufficient for estimating the patterns of agricultural drought hazard in the region. The simpler rainfall method is particularly useful for high islands where data required for the water balance approach are not sufficient to characterize the complex climatic patterns. Drought hazard is greatest in the eastern and southwestern parts of the study area. Great spatial variation in drought hazard is observed in a small area on the high islands of Western Samoa, where the range of values found within a few tens of kilometers is about the same as the range found across thousands of kilometers for low islands.  相似文献   

SDINS/GPS in-flight alignment using GPS carrier phase rate     

Joon?Goo?Park  Jang?Gyu?Lee  Chan?Gook?ParkEmail author 《GPS Solutions》2004,8(2):74-81

The alignments of the strapdown inertial navigation system (SDINS) utilizing GPS carrier phase rate measurements is introduced. In this paper, a measurement model of GPS carrier phase rate under two antenna configurations is derived in order to be used for the SDINS alignment process. For in-flight alignment, the performance of the proposed SDINS/GPS integration method is analyzed using the covariance analysis and the overall performance is briefly confirmed by the navigation result of a van test. Furthermore, we find that during in-flight alignment the proposed SDINS/GPS integrated system using GPS carrier phase rate measurements can be implemented in real time because the integer ambiguity problem resulting from carrier phase measurements is avoided.  相似文献   

Instability of exogenous lava lobes during intense rainfall   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

John?SimmonsEmail author  Derek?Elsworth  Barry?Voight 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2004,66(8):725-734

On many volcanoes, there is evidence of a relationship between dome collapse and periods of high precipitation. We propose a mechanism for this relationship and investigate the conditions that optimize failure by this process. Observations of elongate lobes that evolve through exogenous growth of lava domes reveal that they commonly develop tensile fractures perpendicular to the direction of motion. These cracks can increase in depth by localized cooling and volumetric contraction. During periods of high rainfall, water can fill these cracks, and the increase in fluid pressure on the base of the lobes and within the crack can trigger the collapse of the hot exogenous lava domes. Using limit-equilibrium analysis, it is possible to calculate the water and vapor forces acting on the rear and base of the potentially unstable part of the lobe. The model presented is rectangular in cross-section, with material properties representative of andesitic dome rocks. Vapor pressures at the base of cracks are sealed by the penetrating rainfall, which forms a saturated cap within the lobe. This leads to an increase in fluid pressurization both through the underlying gas pressure and the downslope component of the liquid water cap. Fluid pressurization increases as the penetration depth increases. This rainfall penetration depth is dependent on the thermal properties of the rocks, antecedent temperature, lobe geometry, and the intensity and duration of precipitation. Dominant parameters influencing the stability of the lobe are principally lobe thickness, duration and intensity of rainfall, and antecedent lobe temperature. Our modeling reveals that thicker lobes are intrinsically more unstable due to the amplification of downslope forces in comparison to cohesive strength. The increase in the duration and intensity of rainfall events also increases the potential for collapse, as it leads to deeper liquid penetration. Deeper penetration depths are also achieved through lower antecedent temperatures since less fluid is lost through vaporization. Thus, the potential for rain-triggered collapse increases with time from emplacement.Editorial responsibility: D. Dingwell  相似文献   

IMPACT OF DIABATIC PROCESSES IN AGCM ON 4-DIMENSIONAL VARIATIONAL DATA ASSIMILATION^*          下载免费PDF全文

ZHANG Shaoqing  QIAO Fangli 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2004,18(3):259-282

The impact of diabatic processes on 4-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) was studied using the 1995 version of NCEP's global spectral model with and without full physics.The adjoint was coded manually.A cost function measuring spectral errors of 6-hour forecasts to "observation" (the NCEP reanalysis data) was minimized using the L-BFGS (the limited memory quasi-Newton algorithm developed by Broyden,Fletcher,Goldfard and Shanno) for optimizing parameters and initial conditions.Minimization of the cost function constrained by an adiabatic version of the NCEP global model converged to a minimum with a significant amount of decrease in the value of the cost function.Minimization of the cost function using the diabatic model, however,failed after a few iterations due to discontinuities introduced by physical parameterizations.Examination of the convergence of the cost function in different spectral domains reveals that the large-scale flow is adjusted during the first 10 iterations,in which discontinuous diabatic parameterizations play very little role.The adjustment produced by the minimization gradually moves to relatively smaller scales between 10-20th iterations.During this transition period,discontinuities in the cost function produced by "on-off" switches in the physical parameterizations caused the cost function to stay in a shallow local minimum instead of continuously decreasing toward a deeper minimum. Next,a mixed 4D-Var scheme is tested in which large-scale flows are first adiabatically adjusted to a sufficient level,followed by a diabatic adjustment introduced after 10 to 20 iterations. The mixed 4D-Var produced a closer fit of analysis to observations,with 38% and 41% more decrease in the values of the cost function and the norm of gradient,respectively,than the standard diabatic 4D-Var,while the CPU time is reduced by 21%.The resulting optimal initial conditions improve the short-range forecast skills of 48-hour statistics.The detrimental effect of parameterization discontinuities on minimization was also reduced.  相似文献   

Data assimilation in hydrodynamic modelling: on the treatment of non-linearity and bias   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

J. V. T.?S?rensenEmail author  H.?Madsen 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2004,18(4):228-244

  相似文献   

On ensemble representation of the observation-error covariance in the Ensemble Kalman Filter     

J. D.?KepertEmail author 《Ocean Dynamics》2004,54(6):561-569

Evensen (2003) presents a modification of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), in which the observation-error and background-error covariance matrices are both represented by ensembles, in contrast to the usual practice, where only the background error is so represented. It is shown that this modification can cause the ensemble to collapse to a single member, in the common situation where the number of observations is more than twice the number of ensemble members, and to be rank-deficient when the number of observations is greater than or equal to the ensemble size. It is also shown that some further modifications to the scheme, presented by Evensen as offering numerical efficiencies, can prevent this collapse. However, these latter modifications are shown in some simple numerical examples to require tuning to produce acceptable results, which are nevertheless inferior to those of the standard EnKF.Acknowledgements The author acknowledges useful discussions with Peter Steinle, and other participants at the EnKF workshop held in BMRC in November, 2003.  相似文献   

副热带高压边缘连续两次强降水形成机制分析          下载免费PDF全文

杨晓霞 《山东气象》2017,37(3):62-72

利用常规观测资料、自动气象站加密观测资料、GPS/MET水汽监测资料、FY-2E卫星云图和NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°再分析资料,对副热带高压边缘山东南部连续两次强降水的形成机制进行分析。结果表明,两次强降水都是由副热带高压边缘500 hPa弱西风槽过境影响产生的,副热带高压主体加强西移,850～700 hPa有较强的西南急流。强降水产生在西南低空急流的前方、暖式切变线附近;西南低空急流加强北上强降水开始,急流减弱强降水结束。强降水区与CAPE的高值区、低层水汽通量高值舌、水汽辐合中心、暖平流中心有较好的对应关系。西南低空急流、GPS/MET水汽监测对强降水的短时预报有一定的指示性。对流云团TBB最低为-78～-62 ℃,各观测站对应最大小时雨量为40～90 mm。强降水期间,850 hPa及以下有中尺度涡旋发展,涡旋尺度小,气压场上表现很弱,流场上表现明显,有明显的气旋性环流中心,在925 hPa涡旋中心东南部的暖平流中心降水强度最大。第一次强降水的中尺度涡旋源地发展,稳定少动,在其东南部上升运动强且降水强度大;第二次强降水中,冷空气在低层从西北部侵入,形成气旋,向东北移动,强降水产生在冷锋前部的暖区中,对流不稳定能量高,降水强度大、范围大。  相似文献   

南北地震带北段近期地壳变形特征研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

武艳强  江在森  杨国华  赵静 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2012,37(9):1045-1048,1135

利用1999～2007期和2007～2009期GPS速度场、应变率场、断层滑动速率和GPS速度剖面等数据,识别出了南北地震带北段主要断裂带及其邻近地区的显著变形差异。结果表明,庄浪河断裂带左旋剪切变形明显增强,祁连地块北边界左旋剪切变形明显增强;2007～2009期六盘山断裂和海原断裂带挤压变形也有所增强,但量值不大。上述特征表明,庄浪河以东地区存在较高的应变积累背景。  相似文献   

基于ArcGIS的降水量空间插值方法研究   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

孔令娜  向南平 《测绘与空间地理信息》2012,(3):123-126

目前对降水量空间插值方法的研究很多,针对反距离权重插值、样条函数插值、普通克里金插值在降水量空间插值中的缺陷,提出引入月平均总云量影响因子的协同克里金插值方法。并以内蒙古降水量数据为例进行实验,实验结果表明,引入月平均总云量影响因子的协同克里金插值在精度和拟合度方面得到改善。  相似文献