Towards Formulation of a Space-borne System for Early Warning of Floods: Can Cost-Effectiveness Outweigh Prediction Uncertainty?     

Faisal Hossain 《Natural Hazards》2006,37(3):263-276

The three most important components necessary for functioning of an operational flood warning system are: (1) a rainfall measuring system; (2) a soil moisture updating system; and, (3) a surface discharge measuring system. Although surface based networks for these systems can be largely inadequate in many parts of the world, this inadequacy particularly affects the tropics, which are most vulnerable to flooding hazards. Furthermore, the tropical regions comprise developing countries lacking the financial resources for such surface-based monitoring. The heritage of research conducted on evaluating the potential for measuring discharge from space has now morphed into an agenda for a mission dedicated to space-based surface discharge measurements. This mission juxtaposed with two other upcoming space-based missions: (1) for rainfall measurement (Global Precipitation Measurement, GPM), and (2) soil moisture measurement (Hydrosphere State, HYDROS), bears promise for designing a fully space-borne system for early warning of floods. Such a system, if operational, stands to offer tremendous socio-economic benefit to many flood-prone developing nations of the tropical world. However, there are two competing aspects that need careful assessment to justify the viability of such a system: (1) cost-effectiveness due to surface data scarcity; and (2) flood prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in the remote sensing measurements. This paper presents the flood hazard mitigation opportunities offered by the assimilation of the three proposed space missions within the context of these two competing aspects. The discussion is cast from the perspective of current understanding of the prediction uncertainties associated with space-based flood prediction. A conceptual framework for a fully space-borne system for early-warning of floods is proposed. The need for retrospective validation of such a system on historical data comprising floods and its associated socio-economic impact is stressed. This proposal for a fully space-borne system, if pursued through wide interdisciplinary effort as recommended herein, promises to enhance the utility of the three space missions more than what their individual agenda can be expected to offer.  相似文献   

Poverty, vulnerability and the impact of flooding in the Limpopo Province, South Africa   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Masingita Khandlhela  Julian May 《Natural Hazards》2006,39(2):275-287

The article evaluates household vulnerability after the 2000 flood in two poor communities of the Limpopo Province, South Africa. The study analyses the forms of vulnerability which disasters such as floods present. Using data gathered from a survey of households, the study presents the impacts, coping and adapting strategies of households after the 2000 flood. The article argues that beyond the concern over socio-economic circumstances as the major determinant of household vulnerability, the management of the disaster can serve to perpetuate vulnerability.  相似文献   

长江口水域多光谱遥感水深反演模型研究   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

徐升  张鹰 《地理与地理信息科学》2006,22(3):48-52

利用Landsat-7 ETM 遥感影像反射率和实测水深值之间的相关性可以探测水深。该文介绍单波段、双波段比值和多波段3种线性回归模型以及动量BP人工神经网络水深反演模型。选择长江口北港河道上段作为研究区,利用上述模型,分两种情况进行水深反演:一是以河道全部历史样本建模;二是将河道按自然水深划分为浅水区和深水区分别建模。结果表明:神经网络模型预测精度高于线性回归模型;水深分区后线性回归和神经网络模型预测误差均有所减小。  相似文献   

Driving forces of tropical deforestation: The role of remote sensing and spatial models   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Rinku Roy Chowdhury 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2006,27(1):82-101

Remote sensing technologies are increasingly used to monitor landscape change in many parts of the world. While the availability of extensive and timely imagery from various satellite sensors can aid in identifying the rates and patterns of deforestation, modelling techniques can evaluate the socioeconomic and biophysical forces driving deforestation processes. This paper briefly reviews some emerging spatial methodologies aimed at identifying driving forces of land use change and applies one such methodology to understand deforestation in Mexico. Satellite image classification, change analysis and econometric modelling are used to identify the rates, hotspots and drivers of deforestation in a case study of the southern Yucatán peninsular region, an enumerated global hotspot of biodiversity and tropical deforestation. In particular, the relative roles of biophysical and socioeconomic factors in driving regional deforestation rates are evaluated. Such methodological approaches can be applied to other regions of the forested tropics and contribute insights to conservation planning and policy.  相似文献   

Lead, zinc, and antimony contamination of the Rio Chilco-Rio Tupiza drainage system, Southern Bolivia     

Lionel F. Villarroel  Jerry R. Miller  Paul J. Lechler  Dru Germanoski 《Environmental Geology》2006,51(2):283-299

An intense, but localized rainfall event in February 2003, led to the severe erosion and failure of a tailings disposal impoundment at the Abarόa Antimony Mine in southern Bolivia. The failure released approximately 5,500 m³ of contaminated tailings into the Rio Chilco-Rio Tupiza drainage system. The impacts of the event on sediment quality are examined and compared to contamination resulting from historic mining operations in the headwaters of the basin. Of primary concern are contaminated floodplain soils located along downstream reaches of the Rio Tupiza which were found to contain lead (Pb), zinc (Zn), and antimony (Sb) concentrations that locally exceed Canadian, German, and Dutch guidelines for agricultural use. Spatial patterns in sediment-borne trace metal concentrations, combined with Pb isotopic data, indicate that Pb, Zn, and Sb are derived from three tributary basins draining the Abarόa, Chilcobija, and Tatasi-Portugalete mining districts. Downstream of each tributary, geographical patterns in trace metal concentrations reflect local geomorphic changes throughout the drainage system. Trace metal concentrations within the Rio Chilco decrease rapidly downstream as a result of dilution by uncontaminated sediments and storage of metal enriched particles (e.g., sulfide minerals) in the channel bed as a result of ongoing aggradation. Storage in the floodplains is limited. These processes significantly reduced the dispersal and, thus, the relative environmental affects of tailings eroded from the Abarόa Mine during the 2003 flood. In contrast, storage of Pb, Zn, and Sb in floodplains along the Rio Tupiza is significant, the majority of which is derived from historic mining operations, particularly mining within the Tatasi-Portugalete district.  相似文献   

Potential of High-Resolution Satellite Data in the Context of Vulnerability of Buildings   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

Marina Mueller  Karl Segl  Uta Heiden  Hermann Kaufmann 《Natural Hazards》2006,38(1-2):247-258

High-resolution space-borne remote sensing data are investigated for their potential to extract relevant parameters for a vulnerability analysis of buildings in European countries. For an evaluation of large earthquake scenarios, the number of parameters in models for vulnerability is reduced to a minimum of relevant information such as the type of building (age, material, number of storeys) and the geological and spatial context. Building-related parameters can be derived from remote sensing data either directly (e.g. height) or indirectly based on the recognition of the urban structure type in which the buildings are located. With the potential of a fully- or semi-automatic inventory of the buildings and their parameters, high-resolution satellite data and techniques for their processing are a useful supporting tool for the assessment of vulnerability.  相似文献   

Fast computation of Hankel Transform using orthonormal exponential approximation of complex kernel function     

Pravin K. Gupta  Sri Niwas  Neeta Chaudhary 《Journal of Earth System Science》2006,115(3):267-276

The computation of electromagnetic (EM) fields, for 1-D layered earth model, requires evaluation of Hankel Transform (HT) of the EM kernel function. The digital filtering is the most widely used technique to evaluate HT integrals. However, it has some obvious shortcomings. We present an alternative scheme, based on an orthonormal exponential approximation of the kernel function, for evaluating HT integrals. This approximation of the kernel function was chosen because the analytical solution of HT of an exponential function is readily available in literature. This expansion reduces the integral to a simple algebraic sum. The implementation of such a scheme requires that the weights and the exponents of the exponential function be estimated. The exponents were estimated through a guided search algorithm while the weights were obtained using Marquardt matrix inversion method. The algorithm was tested on analytical HT pairs available in literature. The results are compared with those obtained using the digital filtering technique with Anderson filters. The field curves for four types (A-, K-, H-and Q-type) of 3-layer earth models are generated using the present scheme and compared with the corresponding curves obtained using the Anderson sc heme. It is concluded that the present scheme is more accurate than the Anderson scheme  相似文献   

基于遥感技术的中国北方沙漠及沙质荒漠化土地区划研究     

高会军  姜琦刚 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2006,17(4):68-72

根据影响沙漠、沙质荒漠化土地的地质地貌、植被、气候和人类活动等特征,通过确定地域分异、发生学、多级序列等区划原则,建立了以地质地貌类型组合、气候为沙漠、沙质荒漠化土地区(Ⅰ级区)划分和以沙质荒漠化土地类型空间分布特征为沙漠、沙质荒漠化土地亚区(Ⅱ级区)划分的指标体系。采用遥感方法,将中国北方沙漠、沙质荒漠化土地划分为贺兰山以西干旱沙漠、沙质荒漠化区;贺兰山-大兴安岭干旱、半干旱沙漠、沙质荒漠化区和大兴安岭以东半干旱、半湿润沙质荒漠化区等3个区和17个亚区。并对沙漠、沙质荒漠化土地区进行了现状分析。  相似文献   

遥感技术在煤炭地质中的应用现状及前景   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

张文若  康高峰王永 《中国煤田地质》2006,18(2):5-8,59

介绍了遥感技术在煤炭资源调查和评价、煤矿区地质灾害调查和评估、生态环境及污染调查评价和监测以及煤矿三维可视化仿真规划系统建设方面的应用研究现状及所取得的主要成果，并结合遥感技术的发展方向，展望了其在煤炭地质中的应用前景。  相似文献   

Centrifuge modelling-based verification of response spectra design methods for some vulnerable structures     

S. P. G. Madabhushi  C. H. Lawson 《Geotechnical and Geological Engineering》2006,24(4):793-808

Residential RC framed structures suffered heavily during the 2001 Bhuj earthquake in Gujarat, India. These types of structures also saw severe damage in other earthquakes such as the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake in Turkey and 921 Ji-Ji earthquake in Taiwan. In this paper the seismic response of residential structures was investigated using physical modelling. Idealised soft storey and top heavy, two degrees of freedom (2DOF) portal frame structures were developed and tested on saturated and dry sand models at 25 g using the Schofield Centre 10-m Beam Centrifuge. It was possible to recreate observed field behaviour using these models. As observed in many of the recent earthquakes, soft storey structures were found to be particularly vulnerable to seismic loads. Elastic response spectra methods are often used in the design of simple portal frame structures. The seismic risk of these structures can be significantly increased due to modifications such as removal of a column or addition of heavy water tanks on the roof. The experimental data from the dynamic centrifuge tests on such soft storey or top-heavy models was used to evaluate the predictions obtained from the response spectra. Response spectra were able to predict seismic response during small to moderate intensity earthquakes, but became inaccurate during strong earthquakes and when soil structure interaction effects became important. Re-evaluation of seismic risk of such modified structures is required and time domain analyses suggested by building codes such as IBC, UBC or NEHRP may be more appropriate.  相似文献