大气环流对中国稻飞虱危害的影响及其预测   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

钱拴  霍治国 《气象学报》2007,65(6):994-1002

稻飞虱是中国和许多亚洲国家水稻生产上最重要的害虫。文中通过对上一年1月至当年8月74项大气环流特征量构建所有不同时段的组合,全面分析了大气环流特征量与中国稻飞虱发生面积率的相关关系。筛选出了影响中国稻飞虱发生面积率的关键环流特征因子52项,其对中国稻飞虱发生影响的重要次序为副热带高压类→极涡类→槽类→其他类;影响的时段主要为当年7—8月,其次为上年6月至当年6月。其中,副热带高压类、极涡类关键环流因子分别有35项和12项,占全部关键环流特征因子的67%和23%,在很大程度上决定着中国稻飞虱发生的面积。确定的直接影响中国稻飞虱发生的关键环流特征因子有11项,其中6项较好地表征了中国稻飞虱发生面积率轻、偏轻、偏重、重4个级别的气候特征。用直接影响中国气候的关键环流特征因子建立了当年3—9月的中国稻飞虱发生面积率月预测模式,每月初可以制作预报。该模式历史拟合效果较好,对2003年中国稻飞虱发生面积率的外延预报准确率分别达85.6%、90.5%、90.5%、90.4%、90.9%、93.2%、96.3%。同时,本研究还利用1—11月稻区月降水量、平均气温、日照时数所构建的所有不同时段的组合,分析了关键环流特征因子与稻区生态气象条件、中国稻飞虱发生面积率之间的关系。结果表明:三者之间相关密切,这种关系表现为大气环流通过影响稻区日照、气温和降水的变化导致稻飞虱发生条件的灾变,进而影响稻飞虱发生面积率。  相似文献   

北太平洋风暴轴异常变化特征及其与纬向风场的关系研究   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：7       下载免费PDF全文

韩博  任雪娟  杨修群 《气象科学》2007,27(3):237-245

摘要本文通过对300 hPa5、00 hPa和850 hPa的北太平洋风暴轴(PST)的异常研究,分别提取出两个主异常模态进行比较。分析表明在三层的第一主模态都主要对应有PST异常的准10 a的周期变化;而对300 hPa和500 hPa的第二主模态,以及850 hPa的第三模态,对应有更长时间的趋势变化。进一步通过相关的分析,说明PST的异常从低层到高层的变化存在一定的一致性。通过PST与纬向风场在300 hPa的相关分析发现,两个模态与纬向风场的异常在空间上都呈同位相的分布,说明高层纬向风场异常与PST发展可能存在一种互相反馈的作用。进一步通过斜压增长率和水平两维的E-P通量矢的合成分析发现,这种反馈作用,无论从纬向风场异常所产生的环境斜压增长条件的改变,还是从平均动能与扰动动能的转化关系,都是存在的。  相似文献   

Disc structure around strongly magnetic accretors: a full disc solution with buoyancy diffusivity     

C. G. Campbell  & P. M. Heptinstall 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,301(2):558-568

A full numerical solution is found for the effect of a strongly magnetic star on its accretion disc, for the case of magnetic buoyancy diffusion. As in the previously considered case of turbulent diffusion, the disc becomes disrupted when magnetic and viscous stresses become comparable. A magnetically induced temperature elevation leads to electron scattering opacity and radiation pressure becoming significant far from the stellar surface, with consequent viscous instability and vertical disruption of the disc. This, together with the previous turbulent case, suggests that such a disruption mechanism owing to strongly magnetic accretors is generally operable.  相似文献   

Spectroscopic observations of the eclipsing polar MN Hya (RX J0929–24)     

Gavin Ramsay  & Peter J. Wheatley 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,301(1):95-100

We present low–medium resolution optical spectroscopy of the eclipsing AM Her system MN Hya (RX J0929–24). We determine the magnetic field strength at the primary accretion region of the white dwarf to be 42 MG from the spacing of cyclotron features visible during π ∼ 0.4–0.7. From spectra taken during the eclipse we find that the secondary has an M3–4 spectral type. Combined with the eclipse photometry of Sekiguchi, Nakada &38; Bassett and an estimate of the interstellar extinction we find a distance of ∼300–700 pc. We find unusual line variations at π ∼ 0.9: Hα is seen in absorption and emission. This is at the same point in the orbital phase at which a prominent absorption dip is seen in soft X-rays.  相似文献   

PSR J1012+5307: younger than it looks?     

L. Burderi  A. R. King  & G. A. Wynn 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,300(4):1127-1130

Lorimer et al. have recently reported that the spin-down age (∼7 × 10⁹ yr) of the low-mass binary pulsar PSR J1012+5307 is much higher than the cooling age (3 × 10⁸ yr) of its white dwarf companion. The proposed solutions for this discrepancy are outlined and discussed. In particular, the revised cooling age estimate proposed by Alberts et al. agrees with data from other low-mass binary pulsar systems if a transition to the 'classical' cooling regime occurs between ∼0.14 and ∼0.28 M_⊙. If this transition is excluded, PSR J1012+5307 seems to have finished its accretion phase far from the spin-up line.  相似文献   

Study on the fractal character of magnetic anomaly fields and the delineation of tectonic elements in the South China Sea     

姜效典  于增慧 《中国海洋湖沼学报》1998,16(1):28-35

INTRODUCTION~hon0ffornjcelmtSwnthebasisofthestudyonthecrustaldefonnationanddeVel0prnent,thedistributionofndnereIs,andthendnerogeneticlawr.ThegeornagneticfieklisthecomP0siterefledionoftheformati0nanddefortnationofthecrust.Sornagnct-icsLLrVeydatacomPriseirnPortantbasisfordelincatingthearchiteCtonicelements,dCtendningtheirboundarylines,andanalopngthesanndarystrudriineachelernent,whicharetthernaintasks0fgoophySicalworkers.Thegoornagneticdelineati0nofanareahadforlongbodonequalitativeybyobs…  相似文献   

Toward an Ecological Explanation of Agricultural Unemployment in Bangladesh     

Abu Muhammad Shajaat Ali 《The Professional geographer》1998,50(2):176-191

Cultural ecology theoretical framework was found suitable to explain unemployment in agriculture in three villages in Bangladesh. Path analysis and multiple regression statistics were used to examine the direct, indirect, and total effects of eight independent human, social, environmental, and technology variables as well as their aggregate contribution on agricultural unemployment. The multiple regression model explains 86.2% of the total variation in unemployment in agriculture; they were followed by environmental constraints and labor saving technology variables.  相似文献   

Measurements of the direction of the solar wind using interplanetary scintillation     

P. J. Moran  A. R. Breen  C. A. Varley  P. J. S. Williams  W. P. Wilkinson  J. Markkanen 《Annales Geophysicae》1998,16(10):1259-1264

EISCAT observations of the interplanetary scintillation of a single source were made over an extended period of time, during which the orientation of the baselines between the two observing sites changed significantly. Assuming that maximum correlation between the scintillations observed at the two sites occurs when the projected baseline is parallel to the direction of plasma flow, this technique can be used to make a unique determination of the direction of the solar wind. In the past it has usually been assumed that the plasma flow is radial, but measurements of eleven sources using this technique have indicated conclusively that in at least six cases observed at mid or high heliocentric latitude there is a significant non-radial component directed in four cases towards the heliocentric equator and in two cases towards the pole.  相似文献   

IMP 8 magnetosheath field comparisons with models     

Z. Kaymaz 《Annales Geophysicae》1998,16(4):376-387

This study presents cross-sectional vector maps of the magnetic field derived from IMP 8 magnetometer in the magnetosheath at 30 R_e behind the Earth. In addition the vector patterns of the magnetosheath field for northward, southward, and east-west interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) directions are qualitatively compared with those obtained from the Spreiter-Stahara gas dynamic (GD) and Fedder-Lyon magnetohydrodynamic models (MHD). The main purpose is to display the cross-sectional differences in relation to the dayside merging with different IMF directions, allowing the reader to make direct visual comparisons of the vector patterns. It is seen that for east-west IMF directions, the data-based and MHD-based patterns differ noticeably in a similar way from the GD model, presumably reflecting the influence of dayside magnetic merging of the Earths magnetic field with the y-component of the interplanetary magnetic field. All three northward IMF cross sections show comparable field draping patterns as expected for a closed magnetosphere. For southward IMF case, on the other hand, differences between the three cross-sectional patterns are greater as seen in the field vector sizes and directions, especially closer to the magnetopause where more disturbed magneto-spheric conditions are known to be exist. The data comparisons with the MHD and GD models show that the differences result from the magnetic field-flow coupling and that the effects of dayside reconnection are present in IMP 8 magnetic field measurements.  相似文献   

Velocity of auroral arcs drifting equatorward from the polar cap     

P. J. S. Williams  C. F. del Pozo  I. Hiscock  R. Fallows 《Annales Geophysicae》1998,16(10):1322-1331

The drift velocity of an auroral arc is compared with the component of F-region plasma velocity in the same direction for ten cases where the arc is seen to move steadily equatorward for several minutes without any major change in appearance or orientation. In most cases the two velocities are close, but on two occasions the drift velocity of the arc is much higher than the plasma velocity. From the cases studied it appears that during the growth and recovery phase of the substorm cycle the arc moves with a velocity close to the convection velocity, but during the expansion phase this is not the case.  相似文献