气候变化对洮河流域水资源的影响   总被引：7，自引：3，他引：7  

张济世  康尔泗  姚尽忠  陈仁升  蓝永超  蒲瑞丰  王书功 《中国沙漠》2003,23(3):263-267

过去40多年来，洮河流域主要产流区甘南高原的气候和生态环境发生了显著变化，通过对引洮工程的引水区——流域上游40多年的实测水文气象数据的统计分析发现，降水和径流总体下降趋势非常明显，20世纪80年代至90年代降水径流减少更多，达35％；而气温则呈上升趋势，但上升幅度没有降水径流的下降幅度大。由于气候升温变暖、草原载畜过量以及过度砍伐森林，导致气候干旱化、山区水土流失加剧、草原植被退化和沙漠化，这一切都将对未来引洮工程发挥效益产生不利影响。  相似文献   

Anthropogenic Impacts on Summer Precipitation in Central Arizona,U.S.A.     

Jeremy E. Diem  David P. Brown 《The Professional geographer》2003,55(3):343-355

This article explores the possibility of urbanization‐ and irrigation‐induced increases in summer precipitation totals in central Arizona. Maximum precipitation impacts are hypothesized to occur downwind of the Phoenix area in the Lower Verde basin. Results from statistical tests indicate that summer precipitation totals in the Lower Verde basin are greater than totals in nearby basins. Precipitation totals in the basin also appear to be equivalent to totals at more monsoon‐impacted stations in eastern Arizona. While this research is preliminary, the results do provide encouraging evidence of the existence of anthropogenically enhanced summer precipitation in central Arizona.  相似文献   

50a来洮河流域降水径流变化趋势分析   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：7  

张济世  康尔泗  蓝永超  陈仁升  姚尽忠  蒲瑞丰  陈满祥 《冰川冻土》2003,25(1):77-82

洮河流域 40多年水文实测资料分析表明 ,由于受气候变化及人类活动影响 ,流域降水和径流特征发生了明显变化 ,降水与径流总体呈下降趋势 ,其下降的线性斜率分别为 - 0 .86～ - 1.34mm·a-1和 - 1.5 7～ - 3.36m3·s-1·a-1;而气温呈缓慢上升趋势 ,其上升的线性斜率为 0 0 2℃·a-1.降水的减少和温度的升高已经导致甘南草原荒漠化 ,使许多湿地和湖泊干涸 ;径流的减少和温度增加在近2 0a来有进一步加剧的趋势 .  相似文献   

过去5000年西太平洋副热带高压活动的泥炭纤维素碳同位素记录   总被引：8，自引：2，他引：8       下载免费PDF全文

洪业汤  洪冰  林庆华  朱泳煊  姜洪波  王羽 《第四纪研究》2003,23(5):485-492

文章以金川和红原两组泥炭纤维素Δδ¹³C时间序列值的反向变化来指示西太平洋副热带高压活动变化.结果表明,在过去5000年中,西太平洋副热带高压的活动可分为4个阶段,即西太平洋副热带高压位置在2800～2200B.C.期间持续偏北,2200～600B.C.期间持续偏南,600B.C.～1200A.D.期间在北进与南移之间频繁波动,以及1200～1900A.D.期间再次持续偏北,它们导致降雨量在中国大陆上不同的分布.从约1900A.D.起西太平洋副热带高压的活动似乎又开始一个新的偏南阶段,值得进一步加强研究.  相似文献   

碱熔沉淀-等离子体质谱法测定地质样品中的多元素   总被引：14，自引：17，他引：14       下载免费PDF全文

王蕾  何红蓼李冰 《岩矿测试》2003,22(2):86-92

采用过氧化钠焙融或偏硼酸锂熔融分解样品，将提取液碱性沉淀，通过过滤分离掉大量熔剂，再将沉淀用酸复溶后用等离子体质谱测定26个元素。通过对比，偏硼酸锂熔融—酸提取—碱性沉淀的方案，空白低，易操作，成本低，大多数元素测定结果的相对误差＜10％，相对标准偏差＜5％(n＝10)，与标准值相吻合。  相似文献   

江苏省若干代表站年降水量的多年变化和系列代表性分析   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：3  

马蕴芬 《水文》2003,23(3):45-48,51

利用长系列雨量站资料，采用数理统计法分析了江苏省年降水量的多年变化，对1956—2000年、1956—1979年、1971—2000年、1980—2000年等短系列年降水量的系列代表性做出了分析评价，为合理选用水文系列提供了依据，对江苏省水资源调查评价和水资源综合规划具有重要的参考价值，可在生产中应用。  相似文献   

灌溉实时调度研究进展   总被引：16，自引：1，他引：16       下载免费PDF全文

顾世祥  傅骅  李靖 《水科学进展》2003,14(5):660-666

灌溉实时调度是农业水管理走向智能化、自动化和现代化的重要标志,综合应用地理信息系统、卫星遥感技术、全球定位系统、计算机、人工智能、信息技术,以及农业灌溉、气象学、系统工程等多学科的最新成果,提高调度的灵活性、可靠性、实用性,是灌溉实时调度今后的发展趋势。同时,也面临着基础设施落后、技术力量薄弱、信息处理费用过高、卫星传输周期长等多方面的困难。综述了国内外在实时灌溉预报、渠系动态配水、土壤墒情监测、计算机辅助决策支持系统以及灌区空间信息管理等方面的最新研究进展和主要成就,力求促进灌区用水管理研究的发展。  相似文献   

Monsoonal precipitation variation in the East Asia since A.D. 1840 ——Tree-ring evidences from China and Korea     

刘禹  Won-Kyu Park  蔡秋芳  Jung-Wook Seo  Hyun-Sook Jung 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2003,46(10)

The main characteristic of the East Asian climate is the monsoon system. Plenty of studies have demonstrated that the Asian monsoon system plays a crucial role in the global climate sys- tem [1-4]. The Asian summer monsoon can be divided into two parts, t…  相似文献   

Modelling the effects of temperature and food on individual growth and reproduction of Daphnia and their consequences on the population level     

Karsten Rinke  Thomas Petzoldt 《Limnologica》2003,33(4):293-304

Individual based simulations of population dynamics require the availability of growth models with adequate complexity. For this purpose a simple-to-use model (non-linear multiple regression approach) is presented describing somatic growth and reproduction of Daphnia as a function of time, temperature and food quantity. The model showed a good agreement with published observations of somatic growth (r² = 0.954, n = 88) and egg production (r² = 0.898, n = 35). Temperature is the main determinant of initial somatic growth and food concentration is the main determinant of maximal body length and clutch size. An individual based simulation was used to demonstrate the simultaneous effects of food and temperature on the population level. Evidently, both temperature and food supply affected the population growth rate but at food concentrations above approximately 0.4 mg Cl⁻¹ Scenedesmus acutus temperature appeared as the main determinant of population growth.

Four simulation examples are given to show the wide applicability of the model: (1) analysis of the correlation between population birth rate and somatic growth rate, (2) contribution of egg development time and delayed somatic growth to temperature-effects on population growth, (3) comparison of population birth rate in simulations with constant vs. decreasing size at maturity with declining food concentrations and (4) costs of diel vertical migration. Due to its plausible behaviour over a broad range of temperature (2–20 °C) and food conditions (0.1–4 mg Cl⁻¹) the model can be used as a module for more detailed simulations of Daphnia population dynamics under realistic environmental conditions.  相似文献   

Inelastic displacement ratios for evaluation of existing structures     

Jorge Ruiz‐García  Eduardo Miranda 《地震工程与结构动力学》2003,32(8):1237-1258

Results of a detailed statistical study of constant relative strength inelastic displacement ratios to estimate maximum lateral inelastic displacement demands on existing structures from maximum lateral elastic displacement demands are presented. These ratios were computed for single‐degree‐of‐freedom systems with different levels of lateral strength normalized to the strength required to remain elastic when subjected to a relatively large ensemble of recorded earthquake ground motions. Three groups of soil conditions with shear wave velocities higher than 180m/s are considered. The influence of period of vibration, level of lateral yielding strength, site conditions, earthquake magnitude, distance to the source, and strain‐hardening ratio are evaluated and discussed. Mean inelastic displacement ratios and those associated with various percentiles are presented. A special emphasis is given to the dispersion of these ratios. It is concluded that distance to the source has a negligible influence on constant relative strength inelastic displacement ratios. However, for periods smaller than 1s earthquake magnitude and soil conditions have a moderate influence on these ratios. Strain hardening decreases maximum inelastic displacement at a fairly constant rate depending on the level of relative strength for periods of vibration longer than about 1.0s while it decreases maximum inelastic displacement non‐linearly as the period of vibration shortens and as the relative‐strength ratio increases for periods of vibration shorter than 1.0s. Finally, results from non‐linear regression analyses are presented that provide a simplified expression to be used to approximate mean inelastic displacement ratios during the evaluation of existing structures built on firm sites. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献