The Mesoscale Predictability of a Heavy Precipitation Event          下载免费PDF全文

ZHAI Danhu  LIN Yonghui 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2009,23(4):403-412

Using the mesoscale model MM5, the development of initial condition uncertainties at different scales and amplitudes and their influences on the mesoscale predictability of the ＂0185＂ Shanghai heavy precipitation event are investigated. It is found that different initial conditions obtained from different globe model analyses lead to large variations in the simulated location and strength of the heavy precipitation, and the scales and amplitudes of the initial condition perturbations significantly influence the model error growth. The power spectrum evolution of the difference total energy （DTE） between a control simulation and a sensitivity experiment indicates that the error growth saturates after 12 h, which is the predictable time limit of the heavy precipitation event. The power spectrum evolution of the accumulated precipitation difference between the control and sensitivity simulations suggests a loss of the mesoscale predictability for precipitation systems of scales smaller than 300 kin, i.e., the predictable space for the heavy precipitation event is beyond 300 km. The results also show that the initial uncertainties at larger scales and amplitudes generally result in larger forecast divergence than the uncertainties at smaller scales and amplitudes. The predictable forecasting time and space can be expanded （e.g., from 12 to 15 h, and from beyond 300 kin to beyond 200 km） under properly prescribed initial perturbations at smaller scales and amplitudes.  相似文献   

Seasonal Prediction of the Global Precipitation Annual Modes with the Grid-Point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG          下载免费PDF全文

WU Zhiwei  LI Jianping 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2009,23(4):428-437

A right annual cycle is of critical importance for a model to improve its seasonal prediction skill. This work assesses the performance of the Grid-point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG （GAMIL） in retrospective prediction of the global precipitation annual modes for the 1980 2004 period. The annual modes are gauged by a three-parameter metrics： the long-term annual mean and two major modes of annual cycle （AC）, namely, a solstitial mode and an equinoctial asymmetric mode. The results demonstrate that the GAMIL one-month lead prediction is basically able to capture the major patterns of the long-term annual mean as well as the first AC mode （the solstitial monsoon mode）. The GAMIL has deficiencies in reproducing the second AC mode （the equinoctial asymmetric mode）. The magnitude of the GAMIL prediction tends to be greater than the observed precipitation, especially in the sea areas including the Arabian Sea, the Bay of Bengal （BOB）, and the western North Pacific （WNP）. These biases may be due to underestimation of the convective activity predicted in the tropics, especially over the western Pacific warm pool （WPWP） and its neighboring areas. It is suggested that a more accurate parameterization of convection in the tropics, especially in the Maritime Continent, the WPWP and its neighboring areas, may be critical for reproducing the more realistic annual modes, since the enhancement of convective activity over the WPWP and its vicinity can induce suppressed convection over the WNP, the BOB, and the South Indian Ocean where the GAMIL produces falsely vigorous convections. More efforts are needed to improve the simulation not only in monsoon seasons but also in transitional seasons when the second AC mode takes place. Selection of the one-tier or coupled atmosphere-ocean system may also reduce the systematic error of the GAMIL prediction. These results offer some references for improvement of the GAMIL seasonal prediction skill.  相似文献   

A Case Study on the Triggering of Thermal Convective Precipitation          下载免费PDF全文

LI Yunying  YU Rucong  FU Yunfei  YE Chengzhi 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2009,23(4):455-467

Thermal convective precipitation （TCP） often occurs over mainland China in summer when the area is dominated by the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH）. It is well known that the WPSH often brings about large scale subsidence, then why could deep moist convection occur and where does the water vapor come from？ In this paper, a deep convective precipitation case that happened on 2 August 2003 is studied in order to address these two questions. First, the characteristics of the TCP event are analyzed using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission （TRMM） satellite data, automatic weather station observations, and the data from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）. Second, water vapor sources are identified through examining surface evaporation, water vapor advection, and water vapor flux divergence calculated by using a regionally averaged water vapor budget equation. Furthermore, using an Advanced Regional Eta-coordinate Model （AREM）, contributions of sensible and latent heat fluxes to the TCP are compared through four sensitivity experiments. The results show that in the regions controlled by the WPSH, surface temperature rises rapidly after sunrise. Upon receiving enough sensible heat, the air goes up and leads to convergence in the lower atmosphere. Then the water vapor assembled from the surroundings and the ground surface is transported to the upper levels, and a favorable environment for the TCP forms. A model data diagnosis indicates that about half of precipitable water comes from the convergence of horizontal fluxes of water vapor, and the other half from surface evaporation, while little is from advection. Additional sensitivity experiments prove that both sensible and latent heating are essential for the onset of the TCP. The sensible heat flux triggers thermodynamic ascending motion, and the latent heat flux provides water vapor, but the contribution to TCP from the latter is a little smaller than that from the former.  相似文献   

The Impact of Mid- and High-Latitude Rossby Wave Activities on the Medium-Range Evolution of the EAP Pattern During the Pre-Rainy Period of South China          下载免费PDF全文

SHI Ning  BUEH Cholaw  JI Liren  WANG Panxing 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2009,23(3):300-314

Based on the NCEP DOE AMIP II daily reanalysis data (1979{2005), the evolution of the East Asia/Pacific(EAP) teleconnection pattern during the pre-rainy period of South China is studied on the medium-range time scale. It is found that positive and negative EAP patterns share a similar generation process. In the middle and upper troposphere, Rossby wave packets emanating from the northeast Atlantic or Europe propagate toward East Asia along the Eurasian continent waveguide and finally give rise to the three anomaly centers of the EAP pattern over East Asia. Among the three anomaly centers, the western Pacific subtropical center appears the latest. Rossby wave packets propagate from the high latitude anomaly center toward the mid-latitude and the subtropical ones. The enhancement and maintenance of the subtropical anomaly center is closely associated with the subtropical jet waveguide and the incoming Rossby wave packets from the upstream. In the lower troposphere, Rossby wave packets emanate from the subtropical Asia toward East Asia. Positive and negative EAP patterns could not be regarded as "mirrors" to each other with simply re- versed phase. For the positive pattern, the positive height anomaly center around the Scandinavia Peninsula keeps its strength and position during the mature period, and the Rossby wave packets thus propagate persistently toward East Asia, facilitating a longer mature time of the positive pattern. As for the formation of the negative EAP pattern, however, the incoming Rossby wave energy from the upstream contributes to both the enhancement and southeastward movement of the negative anomaly belt from the Yenisei River to the Bering Strait and the positive anomaly center around Mongolia. At the peak time, the two anomlous circulations are evolved into the Northeast Asia and the mid-latitude anomaly centers of the negative pattern, respectively. The energy dispersion of Rossby wave packets is relatively fast due to the predominant zonal circulation in the extratropics, causing a shorter mature period of the negative pattern. During the pre-rainy period of South China, the prevalence of the EAP pattern signiˉcantly affects the rainfall over the region south of the Yangtze River. The positive (negative) EAP pattern tends to causepositive (negative) precipitation anomalies in that region. This is di?erent from the earlier research findingsbased on monthly mean data.  相似文献   

Intraseasonal variability in the equatorial Atlantic-West Africa during March–June     

Guojun Gu 《Climate Dynamics》2009,32(4):457-471

Intraseasonal (30–80 days) variability in the equatorial Atlantic-West African sector during March–June is investigated using various recently-archived satellite measurements and the NCEP/DOE AMIP-II reanalysis daily data. The global connections of regional intraseasonal signals are first examined for the period of 1979–2006 through lag-regression analyses of convection (OLR) and other dynamic components against a regional intraseasonal convective (OLR) index. The eastward-propagating features of convection can readily be seen, accompanied by coherent circulation anomalies, similar to those for the global tropical intraseasonal mode, i.e., the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO). The regressed TRMM rainfall (3B42) anomalies during the TRMM period (1998–2006) manifest similar propagating features as for the regressed OLR anomalies during 1979–2006. These coherent features hence tend to suggest that the regional intraseasonal convective signals might be mostly a regional response to, or closely associated with the MJO, and probably contribute to the MJO’s global propagation. Atmospheric and surface intraseasonal variability during March–June of 1998–2006 are further examined using the high-quality TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) sea surface temperature (SST), columnar water vapor, and cloud liquid water, and the QuikSCAT oceanic winds (2000–2006). Enhanced (suppressed) convection or positive (negative) rainfall anomalies approximately cover the entire basin (0°–10°N, 30°W–10°E) during the passage of intraseasonal convective signals, accompanied by anomalous surface westerly (easterly) flow. Furthermore, a unique propagating feature seems to exist within the tropical Atlantic basin. Rainfall anomalies always appear first in the northwestern basin right off the coast of South America, and gradually extend eastward to cover the entire basin. A dipolar structure of rainfall anomalies with cross-equatorial surface wind anomalies can thus be observed during this evolution, similar to the anomaly patterns on the interannual time scale discovered in past studies. Coherent intraseasonal variations and patterns can also be found in other physical components.

Guojun GuEmail:

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一次春季强寒潮的降水相态变化分析   总被引：18，自引：2，他引：16  

李江波  李根娥  裴雨杰  王福霞  王新龙  文杰 《气象》2009,35(7):87-94

应用NCEP 1°×1°资料、常规观测资料、自动站资料、多普勒天气雷达资料,对2007年3月河北省一次早春强寒潮天气背景下的降水多相态转换的成因与雨雪转换的预报进行了分析.结果表明:850hPa及以下蒙古高压和江淮气旋共同作用产生的偏东风导致低层大气温度持续下降,降水性质从雨转为雪.随着江淮气旋入海,高低空风向发生突变,从东北风转为西北风,加上太行山地形作用,使太行山东麓部分地区低层大气出现小幅升温,0℃层高度抬升,致使从雪转为雨.多普勒天气雷达回波图上,0℃层亮带高度的迅速下降,可作为从液态降水向固态降水转换的判据之一.天气学分析表明,当0℃层高度低于950hPa、地面气温在0℃上下、1000hPa温度低于2℃、925hPa温度低于-2℃时,降水性质将从雨向雨夹雪或雪转变.  相似文献   

基于BP神经网络的地质灾害细网格预报模型     

蔡敏  黄艳  朱宵峰  沈锦栋  金培  吴惠娟 《气象》2009,35(7):95-100

地质灾害成因复杂,其中以气象因素、地质地貌因素引发的地质灾害最为常见.以金华地区为例,通过对金华市地质地貌条件及其对地质灾害点的调查,将全区划分为4个地质灾害隐患风险等级的网格区域.在此基础上利用金华中尺度气象资料,采用BP神经网络模型,建立地质灾害细网格预报模型,对该模型进行模拟和预报试验.结果表明,合理的隐患风险等级分区能使预报模型更符合科学规律,而采用分布较细的中尺度资料作为预报因子能进一步提高预报精度.模型的预报结果达到一定的可信度,为防灾减灾工作提供了科学依据.  相似文献   

西太平洋副热带高压对华北地区降水蒸发差的影响   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

孙卫国  程炳岩  郭渠 《高原气象》2009,28(5):1167-1174

采用小波相关和交叉小波变换等方法, 分析了西太平洋副热带高压脊线和北界位置变化对华北地区降水蒸发差的影响。结果表明, 2000年以来华北区南部的水资源短缺问题有所缓解, 但以北京为中心的华北区东北部仍处于持续缺水期; 华北地区降水蒸发差与副热带高压脊线及北界位置变化相关密切, 存在年际和年代际尺度的显著相关振荡, 与副热带高压脊线的年代际尺度相关凝聚性最强; 时域中年际尺度相关存在局部化特征, 年代际尺度相关具有阶段性。分析认为, 2000年以来副热带高压脊线和北界位置偏北并维持反气旋型环流, 有利于水汽向华北输送, 使得华北降水增多, 是近年来华北中南部降水蒸发差增大的主要原因; 而东亚季风减弱不利于西南气流的水汽输送, 以及蒙古高原显著增暖导致蒸发增大等因素, 使得华北东北部仍处于持续缺水期。  相似文献   

宁夏一次短时暴雨天气的跟踪预报分析     

聂晶鑫  陆晓静  李蓉 《干旱气象》2009,27(2):185-189

用卫星云图、雷达对2008年8月7日强对流天气产生的暴雨过程跟踪观测资料,结合自动站地面降水实况和WRF模式风场资料进行短时预报分析.结果表明:扩散东移冷空气和副热带高压边缘偏南暖湿气流的共同影响下,大气层结不稳定发生强烈的强对流天气;利用卫星云图,新一代天气雷达基本反射率强度图、0.5°仰角基本速度图和风廓线产品跟踪监测,综合分析预报短时暴雨天气是有效的方法.  相似文献   

基于MODIS资料的贵州植被叶面积指数的时空变化及其对气候的响应   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

丹利  谢明 《气候与环境研究》2009,14(5):455-464

利用2000～2006年MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)卫星遥感观测的植被叶面积指数月平均资料以及相应时段的月平均气温、降水的观测资料对贵州植被的时空变化进行了分析.结果表明贵州2000～2006年植被分布受水热条件控制表现出对气候因子不同的响应关系,其中对降水的响应关系比气温明显,特别是冬季和春季,而植被在夏季和秋季的分布主要受气温的制约,与降水的关系并不明显.从季节和年际尺度的时间变化角度而言,植被对气温的响应比对降水明显,季节变化和年际变化的相关系数分别为0.89和0.73(分别通过99.9%和95%信度检验).  相似文献