我国风暴潮灾的长期变化与预测   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

叶琳  于福江 《海洋预报》2002,19(1):89-96

本文给出了中国历史上和建国后发生大大陆沿海的风暴潮灾统计。在统计的基础上给出了风暴潮灾的空间分布和季节变化。并对我国风暴潮灾的长期预测方法进行了某些探索。  相似文献   

基于SPI的1961－2020年昌吉地区作物生长季气象干旱时空特征研究     

叶尔克江·霍依哈孜  阿吉古丽.沙依提  阿帕尔·肉孜  黄秋霞 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2024,18(2):164-169

基于昌吉地区7个气象站1961－2020年降水量资料，计算昌吉地区作物生长季标准化降水指数（SPI-7）。运用趋势分析法、M-K突变检验法和小波分析法探究了昌吉地区作物生长季SPI-7指数的年际和年代变化特征；在此基础上分析了作物生长季干旱的站次比和干旱强度的年际变化,并结合该区实际发生的旱灾对SPI进行了验证。结果表明：1961—2020年昌吉地区作物生长季标准化降水指数以0.08/10 a的速率呈微弱的正趋势（变湿），在年代变化趋势中呈现出变干-变湿-变干的变化波动, 1981年标准化降水指数由低到高突变；干旱强度呈增加趋势，干旱发生的区域面积有轻微减少的趋势；干旱强度在全区范围内主要为轻旱和中旱等级，并表现为全域性干旱和区域性干旱；空间分布上看干旱率最高区域在东部地区，轻旱主要集中在东部，中旱、重旱和特旱集中在西部地区，干旱强度大的区域大致分布在西部地区；在周期性变化方面，SPI指数存在着6年、9年、16年周期震荡；历史旱灾与SPI指数干旱评价结果吻合率较高，SPI指数在昌吉地区作物生长季的干旱监测与分析中具有较好的实用性。  相似文献   

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON CROPPING SYSTEM AND ITS IMPLICATION FOR AGRICULTURE IN CHINA   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Wang Futang 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1997,11(4):407-415

Based on the analyses on amplitudes of historical variation of temperature and precipitation inthe past 500 years and latest 100 years,according to the regional climate change scenarios forChina estimated by composite GCM,the potential impacts of climate change on cropping systemsin China in future are simulated and assessed using the cropping system model developmentspecially for the Chinese cropping patterns.It is shown that under the projected future climatechange by 2050 the most parts of the present double cropping area would be replaced by thedifferent triple cropping patterns while the current double cropping area would shift towards thecentral part of the present single cropping area.More explicitly,the northern boundary of triplecropping area would shift from its current border at the Changjing River to the Huanghe River,ashift of more than 5 degrees of latitude.And the shift of multiple cropping areas leads to asignificant decrease of single cropping area.Furthermore,considering the changes mentioned above in combination with the likely negativebalance of precipitation and evapotranspiration and,therefore,increase of moisture stress(i.e.less water availability),as well as the possible increase of heat stress disaster and decrease of LGS(length of growing season),the potential implication of climate change for agriculture in China arealso analyzed roughly in this paper.As a result,however,it is still very difficult to reach a specific conclusion that the futureclimate change will he favorable or unfavorable to farm in China because of the complicated Chinesefarming patterns,the complex-various social and economic environment of agriculturaldevelopment and,especially,a great scientific uncertainties in the investigation/prediction ofclimate change.  相似文献   

长江三峡枯水期出现区域性强降水的环流特征   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

林锦瑞 《气象》1997,23(5):18-21

该文以长江三峡地区６个站１９６１－１９９４年１０月－１月的逐日降水量来确定该地区发生区域性强降水的雨日，用同期的历史天气图分析产生区域性强降水的原因，影响系统和环流形势２，归纳出长江三峡地区产生区域性强降水的６类环流型，并进行逐日反查，概括出两类环流型产生区域性强降水的预报指标。  相似文献   

三峡库区枯水期后第一场强降水的气候分析          下载免费PDF全文

韩曙晔  王梅华  游性恬  章淹 《气象》1997,23(7):51-54

以三峡库区２９个气象站逐日降水量资料为主要依据，详细分析了三峡库区枯水期后第一场强降水出现日期的气候特征，并将库区分为东部和西部进行了比较，得出一些可供“三峡工程”施工参考的统计结果。  相似文献   

广西非汛期暴雨事件的特征分析     

吴兴国 《气象研究与应用》2001,22(2):7-9

通过对 196 3- 1999年间广西非汛期 (10月至次年 3月 )暴雨天气过程这一异常天气事件的时间分布及其主要影响系统的分析得出 :广西非汛期异常暴雨天气事件的发生是中、低纬天气系统相互作用在广西地区的反映。关注这一特征 ,对提高广西非汛期异常暴雨天气的预报水平具有参考作用。  相似文献   

南极气候变化的季节特征   总被引：1，自引：3，他引：1  

葛玲  梁佳兴 《南京气象学院学报》1996,19(4):393-398

利用１９６２－１９９３年南极１６站地面至３０ｈＰａ１０个标准层上月平均温度，南极臭氧总量以及２８００ＭＨＺ太阳通量资料，采用最大熵功率变方法，研究了各季中月南极诸高度气候的线性趋势变化，熵谱特征及其可能原因。  相似文献   

Sediment and heavy metal accumulation in the Cauvery basin   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

A. L. Ramanathan  V. Subramanian  B. K. Das 《Environmental Geology》1996,27(3):155-163

Eleven cores were collected from the Cauvery basin. Radiometric dates were used to determine modern sediment accumulation rates. Sediment accumulation rates ranged from 0.4 to 4 mm yr^–. Heavy metal concentration decreases with the increase of depth. The heavy metal concentrations at certain depths are attributed to the irregular input of metals and their remobilization. Heavy metal accumulations have been computed using sediment accumulation rates, and accumulation rates show an additional anthropogenic input of metals and sediments in the recent past. Factor analysis and correlation analysis show the diverse source and accumulation mechanism influencing the metal distribution in the basin.  相似文献   

长江三峡枯水期区域性强降水的一种重要天气形势          下载免费PDF全文

熊廷南  周小刚  邓北胜 《气象》1997,23(5):34-36

利用长江三峡地区６个站１９６１－１９９４年１０月－１月的逐日降水量确定该地区发生区域履强降水的雨日，结合同期的历史天气图分析该地区产生生强降水的原因，影响系统和环流形势特征，归纳出长江三峡地区产生区域性强降水的两槽一脊型环流型，并进行逐日反查，概括出两槽一脊环流型产生区域性强降水的前期预报指标。  相似文献   

Seasonal transition of summer rainy season over indochina and adjacent monsoon region   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  

Jun Matsumoto 《大气科学进展》1997,14(2):231-245

The mean onset and withdrawal of summer rainy season over the Indochina Peninsula were investigated using 5-day averaged rainfall data (1975-87). The mean seasonal transition process during onset and retreat phases in Indochina, India and the South China Sea is also examined using 5-day mean OLR (1975-87) and 850 hPa wind (1980-88) date. It was found that the onset of summer rainy season begins earlier in the inland region of Indochina (Thailand) in late April to early May than in the coastal region along the Bay of Bengal. This early onset of rainy sea-son is due to pre-monsoon rain under the mid-latitude westerly wind regime. The full summer monsoon circulation begins to establish in mid-May, causing active convective activity both over the west coast of Indochina and the cen-tral South China Sea. In case of withdrawal, the earliest retreat of summer rainy season is found in the central northern part of Indochina in late September. The wind field, on the other hand, already changes to easterlies in the northern South China Sea in early September. This easterly wind system covers the eastern part of Indochina where post-monsoon rain is still active. In late October, the wind field turns to winter time situation, but post monsoon rain still continues in the southern part of the Indochina Peninsula until late November  相似文献