季节指数及其在季节性监测资料分析和预报中的应用     

王琪洁  邹峥嵘彭悦 《四川测绘》2004,27(4):156-158,173

基于灰色模型的诸多优点，作者选用GM(1，1)模型分析和预报形变监测序列。然而直接应用GM(1，1)灰色模型分析和预报具有季节性的监测序列时往往精度不高。因此，作者提出运用基于季节指数的“去季节波动”法与GM(1，1)混合建模，对监测资料进行分析与预报。基于均方差和平均绝对误差两个精度准则，作者对此方法与周期函数拟合模型进行了比较。结果表明，此方法提高了具有季节性波动监测序列的预报精度，且建模方法简便、快捷。  相似文献   

Seasonal Variation of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet and Its Association with the Heating Field over East Asia   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

KUANG Xueyuan  ZHANG Yaocun 《大气科学进展》2005,22(6):831-840

The structure and seasonal variation of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet （EAWJ） and associations with heating fields over East Asia are examined by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Obvious differences exist in the westerly jet intensity and location in different regions and seasons due to the ocean-land distribution and seasonal thermal contrast, as well as the dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of the Tibetan Plateau. In winter, the EAWJ center is situated over the western Pacific Ocean and the intensity is reduced gradually from east to west over the East Asian region. In summer, the EAWJ center is located over the north of the Tibetan Plateau and the jet intensity is reduced evidently compared with that in winter. The EAWJ seasonal evolution is characterized by the obvious longitudinal inconsistency of the northward migration and in-phase southward retreat of the EAWJ axis. A good correspondence between the seasonal variations of EAWJ and the meridional differences of air temperature （MDT） in the mid-upper troposphere demonstrates that the MDT is the basic reason for the seasonal variation of EAWJ. Correlation analyses indicate that the Kuroshio Current region to the south of Japan and the Tibetan Plateau are the key areas for the variations of the EAWJ intensities in winter and in summer, respectively. The strong sensible and latent heating in the Kuroshio Current region is closely related to the intensification of EAWJ in winter. In summer, strong sensible heating in the Tibetan Plateau corresponds to the EAWJ strengthening and southward shift, while the weak sensible heating in the Tibetan Plateau is consistent with the EAWJ weakening and northward migration.  相似文献   

开封大雾气候特征及预报   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

郭艳玲李姝霞  刘文玲王其英 《河南气象》2005,(1):19-20

利用1961～2000年气象资料，分析了开封市大雾天气分布规律、天气特征，并总结出大雾产生的几种天气形势，找出预报指标。  相似文献   

昆仑Ms 8.1地震前青藏块体北、东缘水平运动变形的关联特征   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

王双绪  张希  张晓亮 《中国地震》2005,21(1):41-49

青藏块体东北缘和川滇GPS监测区1991(1993)、1999和2001年高精度GPS观测资料揭示：2001年11月14日昆仑Ms8．1地震前，青藏块体北、东缘构造区域水平运动变形场动态演变具有一定的关联性特征。即：在继承性运动总体背景下，临近大震发生时两区域运动强度同步减弱且变形状态发生变化。结合地质构造分析研究认为，昆仑Ms8．1地震前，青藏块体边界运动变形的关联性变化与大震孕育后期大范围应力应变快速积累所形成的扰动应力场有关；随着块体内部大震的发生、应变能的大量释放和构造应力场的调整，可能会促使块体边界地带具有较高应变积累的相关构造部位(尤其是未被历史强震破裂贯通的地带)的应力应变的进一步积累或破裂释放。  相似文献   

Soil respiration in tropical seasonal rain forest in Xishuangbanna, SW China     

SHA Liqing  ZHENG Zheng  TANG Jianwei  Wang Yinghong  ZHANG Yiping  CAO Min  WANG Rui  Liu Guangren  WANG Yuesi  SUN Yang 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2005,48(Z1)

With the static opaque chamber and gas chromatography technique, from January 2003 to January 2004 soil respiration was investigated in a tropical seasonal rain forest in Xishuangbanna, SW China. In this study three treatments were applied, each with three replicates: A (bare soil), B (soil+litter), and C (soil+litter+seedling). The results showed that soil respiration varied seasonally, low from December 2003 to February 2004, and high from June to July 2004. The annual average values of CO2 efflux from soil respiration differed among the treatments at 1% level, with the rank of C (14642 mgCO2· m-2. h-1)＞B (12807 mgCO2· m-2. h-1)＞A (9532 mgCO2· m-2. h-1). Diurnal variation in soil respiration was not apparent due to little diurnal temperate change in Xishuangbanna. There was a parabola relationship between soil respiration and soil moisture at 1% level. Soil respiration rates were higher when soil moisture ranged from 35% to 45%. There was an exponential relationship between soil respiration and soil temperature (at a depth of 5cm in mineral soil) at 1% level. The calculated Q1o values in this study,ranging from 2.03 to 2.36, were very near to those of tropical soil reported. The CO2 efflux in 2003was 5.34 kgCO2· m-2. a-1 from soil plus litter plus seedling, of them 3.48 kgCO2· m-2. a-1 from soil (accounting for 62.5%), 1.19 kgCO2· m-2. a-1 from litter (22.3%) and 0.67 kgCO2·m-2. a-1 from seedling (12.5%).  相似文献   

Growth patterns and implications of complex dendrites in calcite travertines from Lýsuhóll, Snæfellsnes, Iceland     

BRIAN JONES  ROBIN W. RENAUT†  R. BERNHART OWEN‡  HELGI TORFASON§ 《Sedimentology》2005,52(6):1277-1301

Calcite dendrite crystals are important but poorly understood components of calcite travertine that forms around many hot springs. The Lýsuhóll hot-spring deposits, located in western Iceland, are formed primarily of siliceous sinters that were precipitated around numerous springs that are now inactive. Calcite travertine formed around the vent and on the discharge apron of one of the springs at the northern edge of the area. The travertine is formed largely of two types (I and II) of complex calcite dendrite crystals, up to 1 cm high, that grew through the gradual addition of trilete sub-crystals. The morphology of the dendrite crystals was controlled by flow direction and the competition for growth space with neighbouring crystals. Densely crowded dendrites with limited branching characterize the rimstone dams whereas widely spaced dendrites with open branching are found in the pools. Many dendrite bushes in the pools nucleated around plant stems. Growth of the dendrite crystals was seasonal and incremental. Calcite precipitation was driven by rapid CO₂ degassing of CO₂-rich spring waters during the spring and summer. During winter, when snow covered the ground and temperatures were low, opal-A precipitated on the exposed surfaces of the dendrites. Segmentation of dendrite branches by discontinuities coated with opal-A and overgrowth development around sub-crystals resulted from this seasonal growth cycle. The calcite dendrite crystals in the Lýsuhóll travertine differ in morphology from those at other hot springs, such as those at Lake Bogoria, Kenya, and Waikite in New Zealand. Comparison with the calcite dendrite crystals found at those sites shows that dendrite morphology is site-specific and probably controlled by carbonate saturation levels that, in turn, are controlled by the rate of CO₂ degassing and location in the spring outflow system.  相似文献   

Nutrient chemistry of groundwater in an intensively irrigated region of southern India   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

N. Rajmohan  L. Elango 《Environmental Geology》2005,47(6):820-830

The concentration of nutrients in groundwater acts as an indicator to identify the influence of agricultural activities on the shallow subsurface environment. Hence, the present study was carried out to assess nutrient concentration (nitrate, phosphate and potassium) and understand its spatial and seasonal variations in the groundwater of Palar and Cheyyar River basin, Tamil Nadu, India. The groundwater samples collected from 43 wells were analyzed for nutrients once a month from January 1998 to June 1999. Results of the study suggested that agricultural activities, including application of fertilizers, soil mineralization processes and irrigation return flow, are major processes regulating the nutrients chemistry in the groundwater of this region. Groundwater in the sedimentary formation has comparatively higher concentration of nutrients than the groundwater in hard rock formations, which seems to be due to the adsorption of nutrients by the weathered rock materials. The seasonal water level fluctuation shows that rising water level increases nutrients concentration in groundwater due to the agriculture related activities. The results also indicate that nitrate and potassium concentrations are within the recommended drinking water limits, whereas phosphate concentration exceeds its drinking water limit and 35% of the samples are unsuitable for drinking purposes.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at  相似文献   

中国中西部前陆盆地的地质特征及油气聚集   总被引：35，自引：2，他引：35  

贾承造  宋岩  魏国齐  赵孟军  柳少波  李本亮 《地学前缘》2005,12(3):3-13

中国中西部前陆盆地具有十分丰富的油气资源,近年来油气勘探也取得了很大的成果,但总体上来说其地质情况复杂、研究程度较低。世界上典型的前陆盆地一般位于造山带和稳定的克拉通之间的狭长槽地,而在中国中西部则主要为与古特提斯造山带在新特提斯阶段再活动有关的陆内会聚形成的“再生”前陆盆地,因此与世界典型前陆盆地相比中国中西部前陆盆地具有一定的“特殊性”。根据两期前陆的叠合程度差异造成的盆地几何形态、挠曲沉降、地层层序、沉积充填、构造变形特征的特点,将中国中西部前陆盆地归纳为改造型、新生型、叠加型和早衰型四种组合类型的前陆盆地。中西部不同组合类型前陆盆地具有不同的结构特征,决定了不同组合类型前陆盆地成藏特征和油气勘探潜力上的差异。  相似文献   

Seasonal records of climatic change in annually laminated tufas: short review and future prospects   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

J. E. Andrews  A. T. Brasier 《第四纪科学杂志》2005,20(5):411-421

Many Recent and fossil freshwater tufa stromatolites contain millimetre‐scale, alternating laminae of dense micrite and more porous or sparry crystalline calcites. These alternating laminae have been interpreted to represent seasonally controlled differences in the biotic activity of microbes, and/or seasonally controlled changes in the rate of calcification. Either way, couplets of these microbially mediated alternating calcified laminae are generally agreed to represent annual seasonality. Combined stable isotope (δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C) and trace element (Mg, Sr, Ba) geochemistry from Recent tufa stromatolites show that seasonal climatic information is available from these calcites. Variability in δ¹⁸O (and in one case Mg concentration) has been shown to be controlled primarily by stream temperature change, usually driven by solar insolation. In arid climates, seasonal evaporation can also cause δ¹⁸O enrichment by at least 1‰. Variability in δ¹³C results potentially from: (1) seasonal change in plant uptake of ¹²C‐enriched CO₂; (2) seasonal change in degassing of ¹²C‐enriched CO₂ in the aquifer system; and (3) precipitation of calcite along the aquifer or river flow path, a process that increases δ¹³C of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the remaining water. Mechanisms 2 and 3 are linked because calcite precipitates in aquifers where degassing occurs, e.g. air pockets. The latter mechanism for δ¹³C enrichment has also been shown to cause sympathetic variation between trace element/Ca ratios and δ¹³C because trace elements with partition coefficients much greater than 1 (e.g. Sr, Ba) remain preferentially in solution. Since degassing in air pockets will be enhanced during decreased recharge when water saturation of the aquifer is lowest, sympathetic variation in trace element/Ca ratios and δ¹³C is a possible index of recharge and therefore precipitation intensity. High‐resolution geochemical data from well‐dated tufa stromatolites have great potential for Quaternary palaeoclimate reconstructions, possibly allowing recovery of annual seasonal climatic information including water temperature variation and change in rainfall intensity. However, careful consideration of diagenetic effects, particularly aggrading neomorphism, needs to be the next step. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

中国陆地净初级生产力的季节变化研究   总被引：22，自引：1，他引：22  

崔林丽  史军  唐娉  高志强 《地理科学进展》2005,24(3):8-16

了解不同季节陆地净初级生产力(NPP)的变化及与气候的相互关系以及在不同地类的差异对深刻理解我国陆地生态系统对全球气候变化的响应和陆地碳循环研究具有重要意义。本文使用1981～2000年间GLO-PEM模型模拟的我国陆地NPP数据和同期气温、降水以及土地利用数据, 研究不同季节我国陆地植被NPP的变化。结果表明,在1981～2000年期间,四个季节的NPP都呈显著增加趋势,春季是NPP增加速率最快的季节,夏季是NPP增加量最大的季节。耕地在春、夏和秋季NPP增长和增长率最高,林地冬季NPP增长最多而水域冬季NPP增长率最高。夏季NPP增长最高的区域分布于我国东部的多数地区、内蒙古东部、四川盆地、贵州东部、藏南和新疆西部;夏季NPP降低最多的区域分布于在呼伦贝尔高原、鄂尔多斯高原、黄土高原、青藏高原东部和新疆西北部。  相似文献