准四年周期的北半球夏季遥相关与东亚夏季风环流的相互关系   总被引：3，自引：3，他引：0  

谭言科  何金海 《南京气象学院学报》1998,21(1):70-79

利用ＮＭＣ的２００ｈＰａ和８５０ｈＰａ风场资料研究了北半球夏季遥相关和东亚夏季风异常环流在准４年时间尺度上的相互关系。研究发现当北半球夏季出现积雪强迫型遥相关时,东亚－西太平洋地区既存在异常纬向环流,也存在异常经向环流;而当出现东亚太平洋型遥相关时,东亚－西太平洋地区以异常纬向环流为主。分析还发现源于北太平洋的异常涡旋在向南传播的过程中,先取西南路径,在到达菲律宾东部以后折向东南。  相似文献   

对流层高层偏北气流在梅雨暴雨中的作用   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

翟国庆 《气象学报》1998,56(1):68-76

文中对江淮梅雨暴雨过程中的高低空流场特征及物理过程进行分析．结果表明：对流层上部青藏高原东侧常有高空偏北大风轴汇入南亚东风急流中．在这支强北风轴北端发现高空辐散和辐散的增长．亦即有利于低层辐合上升的持续、发展和加强;表明了低层西南急流与高空青藏高压东侧的偏北强风轴之间的次级环流圈,有利于梅雨暴雨的持续．  相似文献   

Flood frequency analysis of Turkey using L‐moments method     

Neslihan Seckin  Tefaruk Haktanir  Recep Yurtal 《水文研究》2011,25(22):3499-3505

The index flood procedure coupled with the L‐moments method is applied to the annual flood peaks data taken at all stream‐gauging stations in Turkey having at least 15‐year‐long records. First, screening of the data is done based on the discordancy measure (D_i) in terms of the L‐moments. Homogeneity of the total geographical area of Turkey is tested using the L‐moments based heterogeneity measure, H, computed on 500 simulations generated using the four parameter Kappa distribution. The L‐moments analysis of the recorded annual flood peaks data at 543 gauged sites indicates that Turkey as a whole is hydrologically heterogeneous, and 45 of 543 gauged sites are discordant which are discarded from further analyses. The catchment areas of these 543 sites vary from 9·9 to 75121 km² and their mean annual peak floods vary from 1·72 to 3739·5 m³ s^?1. The probability distributions used in the analyses, whose parameters are computed by the L‐moments method are the general extreme values (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO), generalized normal (GNO), Pearson type III (PE3), generalized Pareto (GPA), and five‐parameter Wakeby (WAK). Based on the L‐moment ratio diagrams and the |Z_dist|‐statistic criteria, the GEV distribution is identified as the robust distribution for the study area (498 gauged sites). Hence, for estimation of flood magnitudes of various return periods in Turkey, a regional flood frequency relationship is developed using the GEV distribution. Next, the quantiles computed at all of 543 gauged sites by the GEV and the Wakeby distributions are compared with the observed values of the same probability based on two criteria, mean absolute relative error and determination coefficient. Results of these comparisons indicate that both distributions of GEV and Wakeby, whose parameters are computed by the L‐moments method, are adequate in predicting quantile estimates. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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何晓业  何晓红 《大地测量与地球动力学》2007,27(2):122-124

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Relationship of Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemispheric 500 hPa Polar vortices     

References： 《极地研究(英文版)》2007,18(1):73-83

Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly 500 hPa height data on a 2.5 latitude-longitude grid and 1°×1° sea ice data,the polar vortex area,intensity index and arctic sea ice area index are calculated respectively,and the meridional distribution,period variation and the abrupts in the long range trend are analyzed to study their relationship.The results show that the meridional distribution of sea ice and polar vortex h-ave distinctive difference,the relative positions of them are different in the eastern and western hemispheres,and exept they have periods of 4 months,quasi half year,quasi year,4-5 years and 10 years commonly,and each of them has its own respective variation as well.The sea ice area is decreasing apparently since 1980's,so is the polar vortex area,but their abrupt changge time are different totally.The area of sea ice and polar vortex has prominent positive correlation,but the relationship of sea ice intensity,polar vortex intensity,polar vortex area is complicated.  相似文献   

White dwarf + red dwarf binary systems and the period gap of cataclysmic variables     

N. F. Vojkhanskaja 《Astrophysics》2007,50(3):351-361

Cataclysmic variables (CV) and pre-cataclysmic binaries (PCB) are discussed. The main difference between them (accretion or its absence) is shown to be a consequence of the evolutionary process and the properties of their progenitors. Both types of system have a bimodal distribution of their periods, but the extrema are in counterphase. Luminosity-effective temperature diagrams for the primary components are used to show that both systems have approximately the same age, which conflicts with the notion of PCBs as precursors of CVs. Calculations of the maximum distance between components for which the system remains stable show that CVs have passed this limit, while PCBs maintain their stability during this evolution. It is suggested that, after ejecting a common shell, future CVs immediately become semi-detached systems. It this is so, then there must be cataclysmic variables which are the central stars of planetary nebulae. __________ Translated from Astrofizika, Vol. 50, No. 3, pp. 427–439 (August 2007).  相似文献   

NGC4151的光变周期分析(英)     

陶隽  钱伯辰  束成钢  顾敏锋  郑大伟 《天文学报》1998,(2)

本文利用地面光学望远镜对NGC4151进行国际联测所得的结果，通过周期日方法和逐步回归方法得到了该目标的一些较为明显的光变周期．结果表明，NGC4151存在两个主要光变周期．一个是所有光学波段存在约14天的周期，另一个是连续谱存在约30天周期，而对于Hα和Hβ则分别为24和38天的周期．  相似文献   

Crytic period analysis model of hydrological process and its application     

Hongrui Wang  Xin Lin  Longxia Qian 《水文研究》2009,23(13):1834-1843

It is difficult to analyse the crytic period of the hydrological process, because hydrological time series is probably characterized by heteroscedasticity. To find out the crytic period, a model is constructed as follows: (1) after using zero‐mean transformation for the data, to do Augmented Dickey–Fuller stationary test for the sequence, to build the corresponding AR(p) model and then to do ARCH effects test and white noise test for residual series; (2) for those time series that cannot pass through ARCH test, using logarithm transformation to reduce the heteroscedasticity, and then to redo step (1) until they pass through ARCH test and stationary test; (3) using periodogram analysis to determine all the possible the prime periods and further to put forward three kinds of tests to determine significance level of those prime periods. As examples, the hydrological processes of streamflow from 1784 to 1997 for the gauging stations of Alaer and Xinquman along Tarim River are analysed. After reducing their heteroscedasticity, AR(4) and AR(2) models are developed, respectively. Our results show that the streamflows from the two gauging stations have the same cryptic period of 42·7 years. Furthermore, the reliability for the crytic period model is testified by variance analysis, which shows that the crytic period model is useful and reliable. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Modelling of the spatial evolution of extreme laboratory wave crest and trough heights with the NLS-type equations     

《Applied Ocean Research》2015

The statistical properties of long-crested nonlinear wave time series measured in an offshore basin have been analyzed in different aspects such as the distributions of surface elevation, wave crest, wave trough, and wave period. Comparison with linear, second-order and third-order theoretical models indicates that although bound wave effects also contribute to the deviation from a Gaussian process, it is the modulational instability that primarily determines the discrepancy in the evolution process in the presence of strong nonlinearity. Interestingly enough, wave crest is more sensitive to the quasi-resonant four-wave interaction effect than wave trough and the scaled maximal wave crest presents a linear regression model with the coefficient of kurtosis. Meanwhile, the estimation of the observed statistical properties is reconstructed on the basis of an ensemble of 100 wave series simulated by the NLS-type equations and compared favourably with the experimental results in most cases. Moreover, with the increased third-order nonlinear effect the difference between NLS and Dysthe simulations is enlarged and mainly reflected on the distribution of wave crest.  相似文献   

新型张力腿式储油处理平台的动力响应分析     

岑皓  王克用  赵胜涛  张海燕 《海洋技术学报》2015,34(5):97-103

针对目前小油田早期生产中存在的不足,提出一种适用于浅水海域的新型张力腿式储油处理平台,该平台主要由储油箱、浮箱、吸力桩、系泊链和甲板结构构成,具备原油处理和储存功能。应用非线性时域耦合分析法,研究了有义波高、平均波周期、水深对该平台的运动响应和系泊链张力的影响。计算结果表明,波高对平台动力响应有较大影响,有义波高每增加0.4 m,平台水平位移相应增加0.408 m,而系泊链力随有义波高的增加呈准线性增大;波周期对平台水平运动影响显著,平均波周期从6.5 s逐级变化至8.5 s时,最大水平位移自3.760 m渐增至5.467 m,而波周期对系泊链力影响较小,变化率一般小于10%;该新型平台对水深大于20 m的浅水海域有良好的动力特性,而对水深小于20 m的海域却表现异常。因此,该新型张力腿式平台能满足水深不小于20 m浅海区的油田早期生产需要。  相似文献