Likely effects of climate change on groundwater availability in a Mediterranean region of Southeastern Spain          下载免费PDF全文

Hassane Moutahir  Pau Bellot  Robert Monjo  Juan Bellot  Miguel Garcia  Issam Touhami 《水文研究》2017,31(1):161-176

Groundwater resources are typically the main fresh water source in arid and semi‐arid regions. Natural recharge of aquifers is mainly based on precipitation; however, only heavy precipitation events (HPEs) are expected to produce appreciable aquifer recharge in these environments. In this work, we used daily precipitation and monthly water level time series from different locations over a Mediterranean region of Southeastern Spain to identify the critical threshold value to define HPEs that lead to appreciable aquifer recharge in this region. Wavelet and trend analyses were used to study the changes in the temporal distribution of the chosen HPEs (≥20 mm day^?1) over the observed period 1953–2012 and its projected evolution by using 18 downscaled climate projections over the projected period 2040–2099. The used precipitation time series were grouped in 10 clusters according to similarities between them assessed by using Pearson correlations. Results showed that the critical HPE threshold for the study area is 20 mm day^?1. Wavelet analysis showed that observed significant seasonal and annual peaks in global wavelet spectrum in the first sub‐period (1953–1982) are no longer significant in the second sub‐period (1983–2012) in the major part of the ten clusters. This change is because of the reduction of the mean HPEs number, which showed a negative trend over the observed period in nine clusters and was significant in five of them. However, the mean size of HPEs showed a positive trend in six clusters. A similar tendency of change is expected over the projected period. The expected reduction of the mean HPEs number is two times higher under the high climate scenario (RCP8.5) than under the moderate scenario (RCP4.5). The mean size of these events is expected to increase under the two scenarios. The groundwater availability will be affected by the reduction of HPE number which will increase the length of no aquifer recharge periods (NARP) accentuating the groundwater drought in the region. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A nonstationary extreme value distribution for analysing the cessation of karst spring discharge          下载免费PDF全文

Yan Liu  Yonghong Hao  Yonghui Fan  Tongke Wang  Xueli Huo  Youcun Liu  Tian‐Chyi J. Yeh 《水文研究》2014,28(20):5251-5258

The effects of climate change and population growth in recent decades are leading us to consider their combined and potentially extreme consequences, particularly regarding hydrological processes, which can be modeled using a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. Most of the GEV models were based on a stationary assumption for hydrological processes, in contrast to the nonstationary reality due to climate change and human activities. In this paper, we present the nonstationary generalized extreme value (NSGEV) distribution and use it to investigate the risk of Niangziguan Springs discharge decreasing to zero. Rather than assuming the location, scale, and shape parameters to be constant as one might do for a stationary GEV distribution analysis, the NSGEV approach can reflect the dynamic processes by defining the GEV parameters as functions of time. Because most of the GEV model is designed to evaluate maxima (e.g. flooding, represented by positive numbers), and spring discharge cessation is a ?minima’, we deduced an NSGEV model for minima by applying opposite numbers, i.e. negative instead of positive numbers. The results of the model application to Niangziguan Springs showed that the probability of zero discharge at Niangziguan Springs will be 1/80 in 2025, and 1/10 in 2030. After 2025, the rate of decrease in spring discharge will accelerate, and the probability that Niangziguan Springs will cease flowing will dramatically increase. The NSGEV model is a robust method for analysing karst spring discharge. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A new standardized Palmer drought index for hydro‐meteorological use          下载免费PDF全文

Mingwei Ma  Liliang Ren  Fei Yuan  Shanhu Jiang  Yi Liu  Hao Kong  Luyan Gong 《水文研究》2014,28(23):5645-5661

Accepting the concept of standardization introduced by the standardized precipitation index, similar methodologies have been developed to construct some other standardized drought indices such as the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). In this study, the authors provided deep insight into the SPEI and recognized potential deficiencies/limitations in relating to the climatic water balance it used. By coupling another well‐known Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), we proposed a new standardized Palmer drought index (SPDI) through a moisture departure probabilistic approach, which allows multi‐scalar calculation for accurate temporal and spatial comparison of the hydro‐meteorological conditions of different locations. Using datasets of monthly precipitation, temperature and soil available water capacity, the moisture deficit/surplus was calculated at multiple temporal scales, and a couple of techniques were adopted to adjust corresponding time series to a generalized extreme value distribution out of several candidates. Results of the historical records (1900–2012) for diverse climates by multiple indices showed that the SPDI was highly consistent and correlated with the SPEI and self‐calibrated PDSI at most analysed time scales. Furthermore, a simple experiment of hypothetical temperature and/or precipitation change scenarios also verified the effectiveness of this newly derived SPDI in response to climate change impacts. Being more robust and preferable in spatial consistency and comparability as well as combining the simplicity of calculation with sufficient accounting of the physical nature of water supply and demand relating to droughts, the SPDI is promising to serve as a competent reference and an alternative for drought assessment and monitoring. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Stable isotopes of precipitation and spring waters reveal an altitude effect in the Anti‐Lebanon Mountains,Syria          下载免费PDF全文

Paul Koeniger  Mathias Toll  Thomas Himmelsbach 《水文研究》2016,30(16):2851-2860

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Impact of climate indicators on continental‐scale potential groundwater recharge in Africa          下载免费PDF全文

Paolo Nasta  John B. Gates  Yoshihide Wada 《水文研究》2016,30(19):3420-3433

In the last decades, human activity has been contributing to climate change that is closely associated with an increase in temperatures, increase in evaporation, intensification of extreme dry and wet rainfall events, and widespread melting of snow and ice. Understanding the intricate linkage between climate warming and the hydrological cycle is crucial for sustainable management of groundwater resources, especially in a vulnerable continent like Africa. This study investigates the relationship between climate‐change drivers and potential groundwater recharge (PGR) patterns across Africa for a long‐term record (1960–2010). Water‐balance components were simulated by using the PCR‐GLOBWB model and were reproduced in both gridded maps and latitudinal trends that vary in space with minima on the Tropics and maxima around the Equator. Statistical correlations between temperature, storm occurrences, drought, and PGR were examined in six climatic regions of Africa. Surprisingly, different effects of climate‐change controls on PGR were detected as a function of latitude in the last three decades (1980–2010). Temporal trends observed in the Northern Hemisphere of Africa reveal that the increase in temperature is significantly correlated to the decline of PGR, especially in the Northern Equatorial Africa. The climate indicators considered in this study were unable to explain the alarming negative trend of PGR observed in the Sahelian region, even though the Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) values report a 15% drought stress. On the other hand, increases in temperature have not been detected in the Southern Hemisphere of Africa, where increasing frequency of storm occurrences determine a rise of PGR, particularly in southern Africa. Time analysis highlights a strong seasonality effect, while PGR is in‐phase with rainfall patterns in the summer (Northern Hemisphere) and winter (Southern Hemisphere) and out‐of‐phase during the fall season. This study helps to elucidate the mechanism of the processes influencing groundwater resources in six climatic zones of Africa, even though modelling results need to be validated more extensively with direct measurements in future studies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

基于温度植被干旱指数的电网输电线路走廊干旱分析     

孙洋杰  唐华林 《测绘与空间地理信息》2016,(10):94-97

以湖北省输电线路走廊地区作为研究区,利用2013年1~9月MODIS卫星影像数据,处理得到月尺度的归一化植被指数(Normalized Differential Vegetation Index,NDVI)与地表温度(Land Surface Temperature,LST)数据,构建NDVI-Ts特征空间,计算得到温度植被干旱指数(Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index,TVDI),用TVDI监测结果分析湖北省输电线路走廊区域2013年干旱时空分布情况。结果表明,湖北省输电线路走廊地区TVDI和土壤含水量之间存在显著的负相关,相关系数达到0.525(p0.05),由MODIS卫星影像计算得到TVDI影像可以有效表明湖北省输电线路走廊地区的土壤含水情况。  相似文献   

中国北方地区秋季植被变化及对气候变化的响应研究     

安佑志  高炜  高志强  施润和 《测绘与空间地理信息》2016,(11)

基于1982~2006年的AVHRR GIMMS NDVI数据,使用一元线性回归和分段线性回归等方法,通过对中国北方地区植被变化及其与气候因子的关系研究,揭示该地区近25年来在不同时段的植被变化趋势及对气候变化的响应规律,从而为该地区的生态环境变化研究提供理论依据。研究结果表明:1)中国北方地区秋季植被在25年时间内整体呈上升趋势。秋季NDVI在秋季温度断点之前以上升趋势为主,秋季NDVI在秋季温度断点之后仍以上升趋势为主,但上升趋势有所放缓。2)通过分段线性回归方法和相关分析研究得出中国北方地区秋季温度是秋季NDVI变化的主要驱动力。在秋季温度断点之后,秋季温度仍呈上升趋势而降水呈显著减少的面积增多,从而在温度和降水双重影响下的干旱胁迫导致植被下降;当秋季温度下降而秋季降水增多时干旱发生概率变小,从而使秋季NDVI呈上升趋势。  相似文献   

东北地区春季首场透雨的变化特征及与青藏高原地面加热场强度的关系   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

徐士琦  李栋梁 《气象》2016,42(3):271-279

利用1958—2012年4—5月东北地区(39°~55°N、118°~135°E)101个站点逐日降水资料、青藏高原地区(25°~40°N、73.75°~103.75°E)JRA-55的地面感热和潜热通量月平均再分析资料以及NCEP/NCAR-I大气环流场的月平均再分析资料,分析了春播期首场透雨出现日期的时空变化特征及其与透雨量和播种期降水量间的关系,以及对青藏高原地面加热场强度异常的响应及其可能机制。结果表明:透雨日期自1958年以来在东北地区的西北和东南大部分区域呈现略微偏晚的趋势;中部有略微偏早的趋势。春播期首场透雨出现时间偏早(晚)的地方,首场透雨量小(大),春播期总降水量多(少)。同时,4月青藏高原地面加热场强度增强(减弱),有利于(不利于)来自北方的冷空气和南方的暖湿气流在东北上空交汇,且上升气流增强(减弱),水汽输送充沛(减少),导致该地区春季首场透雨出现的时间偏早(晚)。  相似文献   

湖北省旱涝灾害致灾规律的初步研究   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

周悦  周月华  叶丽梅  高正旭 《气象》2016,42(2):221-229

利用1960—2005年湖北省76个地区气象灾害的灾情普查数据和逐日降水量观测资料,对湖北省旱涝灾害的时空分布特征及其致灾规律进行分析。结果表明:干旱灾害的频发区呈东西走向的带状分布,而洪涝灾害的发生频次和频发区面积均明显少于干旱;干旱和洪涝灾害年平均发生站次在1996年以后出现相反的变化趋势,干旱发生站次增加,而洪涝发生站次减少,且两种灾害均主要集中发生在夏季;1996—2001年湖北省部分地区连续出现严重干旱灾害,干旱的累积增强效应导致农业经济损失出现跳跃性增长并在2001年达到最大值;洪涝的致灾强度呈准周期的起伏振荡,农作物受洪涝影响面积最大、损失最多的年份集中在20世纪90年代,农作物受害面积与农业经济损失的决定系数为0.8;受害人口与直接经济损失具有较好的相关特征,且直接经济损失随受害人口增多而增加的速度加快,但近年来人口对洪涝灾害的抵御能力也显著提高;急转干旱和急转洪涝主要发生在鄂西北和鄂东南的夏季,农作物的脆弱度增加,农业经济损失随受害面积增大而增加的速度加快,但所造成的农业经济损失远小于仅发生干旱和洪涝时的数值。  相似文献   

内蒙古河套灌区春玉米作物系数试验研究   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

侯琼  王海梅  云文丽  李建军 《应用气象学报》2016,27(4):417-425

作物系数曲线是估算作物生长季耗水量变化的重要参数。基于2013年4—9月内蒙古巴彦淖尔市临河区田间水分试验和1994—2013年气象站观测资料,利用水量平衡法反求春玉米作物系数,分析生长季内的变化规律, 建立动态模拟方程,并与联合国粮农组织 (FAO) 分段直线法结果进行比较, 提出胁迫条件下作物系数的叶面积修正方法。结果表明:玉米作物系数随发育进程可用三项式曲线描述,变化趋势与产量水平无关, 但随产量增高而变幅增大;以出苗后相对积温为时间变量建立模拟方程效果较好,决定系数 (R2) 均在0.92以上;模拟计算出各站点最大 (1.30~1.48) 和平均 (0.831~0.919) 作物系数,与FAO分段直线法计算的典型值和区间值基本一致,生长中期平均相对误差为3.4%~7.2%;提出利用相对叶面积指数修正作物系数的计算方法;通过2014年实例检验,土壤水分模拟值与实测值的平均相对误差为6.3%,相对误差小于15%的占95.8%。  相似文献