地震发生非稳态泊松过程和中长期概率预测研究   总被引：7，自引：4，他引：3  

傅征祥!中国北京  粟生平!中国北京  王晓青!中国北京 《地震》1998,(2)

在描述事件非稳态泊松过程的基本统计特征及其与稳态泊松过程差别的基础上 ,将非稳态泊松过程应用在华北地震区汾渭带和华北平原地震带的中长期地震预测研究中。研究表明 ,假定未来几百年间 ,汾渭带和华北平原带的强震 ( M≥ 7.0 )活动 ,将重现上一次地震轮回的非稳态泊松时间过程 ,那么 ,在 2 0 1 0年前它们发生一次 7级大地震的累计概率分别为 0 .2 6(不确定性范围 :0 .0 6～ 0 .5 0 )和 0 .0 4 (不确定性范围 :0 .0 0～ 0 .1 3)。它们明显地低于按稳态泊松过程得到的发生概率  相似文献   

西安地铁穿越地裂缝的抽水试验研究     

李新生  王朋朋  李亚圣  李忠生  高铎文  万通  高虎艳 《西安地质学院学报》2010,(4):378-385

查清地裂缝水文地质情况可以为西安地铁设计和施工提供科学依据。根据西安地铁勘察工作需要,2008年7月～9月选择地裂缝穿过的西安市劳动路小学院内场地首次尝试进行跨地裂缝水文地质专项现场试验。试验内容包括试坑渗水试验、钻孔注水和抽水试验,并以1号抽水井的稳定流抽水试验为典型,研究地裂缝对地下水渗流的影响。采用带1个观测孔的稳定流潜水完整井公式、带2个观测孔的稳定流潜水完整井公式以及潜水完整井水位恢复速度计算公式等3个渗透系数计算方法,得到了地表浅层土体沿地裂缝走向和垂直于地裂缝走向的渗透系数,分析了渗透系数的差异性;最后利用MADIS有限元软件模拟场地内建筑物对地基土施加应力,探讨了建筑物对场地土体的影响。结果表明：利用上述3个公式计算,都得到沿地裂缝方向土体的渗透系数比垂直地裂缝方向的土体稍大;在同一落程中,利用潜水完整井水位恢复速度公式计算得到的渗透系数最大,利用带2个观测孔的稳定流潜水完整井公式计算得到的渗透系数次之,利用带1个观测孔的稳定流潜水完整井公式计算得到的渗透系数最小,这主要是由井损造成的;建筑物对场地土体的影响主要集中在素填土层、黄土层和古土壤层,粉质黏土层以下影响则逐渐减弱,影响深度在18 m左右;由于建筑物长期对地裂缝上盘土体施加荷载,附加应力作用使地基土固结压密,导致地裂缝上盘土体的渗透系数较下盘小。  相似文献   

台兰河年平均流量非平稳序列加法模型的建立与预报     

王新辉 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2013,7(5):62-65

摘要：将台兰河作为塔里木河典型源流径流的案列,通过SPSS应用技术,探索适合干旱区河流水文预报方法。首先将台兰河台兰水文站1957-2008年年均流量Q（t）序列分解为趋势、周期、平稳函数项和噪声项,建立了非平稳时间序列加法模型,然后对建模年限内的Q（t）序列作了模拟检验,最后对建模年限外的2009、2010、2011年Q（t）值作了预报,预报结果符合水文情报预报规范要求,可供生产实践参考。  相似文献   

带反馈优先的M/M/c排队在通信网络中的应用     

厉莉  朱翼隽 《成都信息工程学院学报》2006,21(6):897-902

在具有Bernoulli反馈的单队列单服务台排队模型的基础上，考虑通信网络中赋予反馈信元优先权的情况，将单个服务台推广到多个服务台，建立了具有反馈优先的M／M／c排队模型．在该排队模型中，信元的到达遵循泊松过程，服务时间服从指数分布，通过构造拟生灭过程和运用谱展开方法给出了平稳队长分布的算法，具体给出了C=2时平稳队长分布的显式表达式，以及在反馈优先和反馈非优先两种策略下的排队指标，并作出了相应的指标性能分析，得出信元在反馈优先策略下的平均逗留时间较短，进而说明了该排队模型在通信网络中有广泛的应用价值。  相似文献   

太原基准地震台地磁背景噪声分析   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

闫计明  张亮娥  陈常俊  何宇飞  杨福喜 《地震地磁观测与研究》2013,(5):135-140

太原基准地震台数字化地磁观测项目建成运行后,背景噪声水平较大,影响观测资料的使用.采取多种技术措施,认为地电阻率观测对地供电是地磁稳频干扰的主要成分,是地磁背景噪声的一项重要干扰因素.  相似文献   

Interannual variability of the winter stratospheric polar vortex in the Northern Hemisphere and their relations to QBO and ENSO   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈文  魏科 《大气科学进展》2009,26(5):855-863

We investigated the interannual variations of the winter stratospheric polar vortex in this paper. EOF analysis shows that two modes of variability dominate the stratospheric polar vortex on interannual timescales. The leading mode (EOF1) reflects the intensity variation of the polar vortex and is characterized by a geopotential height seesaw between the polar region and the mid-latitudes. The second one (EOF2) exhibits variation in the zonal asymmetric part of the polar vortex, which mainly describes the stationary planetary wave activity. As the strongest interannual variation signal in the atmosphere, the QBO has been shown to influence mainly the strength of the polar vortex. On the other hand, the ENSO cycle, as the strongest interannual variation signal in the ocean, has been shown to be mainly associated with the variation of stationary planetary wave activity in the stratosphere. Possible influences of the stratospheric polar vortex on the tropospheric circulation are also discussed in this paper.  相似文献   

20070708阜阳极端降雨事件的综合分析     

刘娟  朱君鉴  陈晓红  宋子忠  项阳  卢海 《南京气象学院学报》2009,32(5)

使用阜阳多普勒天气雷达、安徽省气象自动观测网、卫星云图等资料,对2007年7月8日发生在阜阳市迎仙镇的一次极端降雨事件进行了综合分析.结果表明,这场特大暴雨是在西太平洋副热带高压向南撤退形势下发生的,大气层结主要表现为强的对流性不稳定,特大暴雨对流云带恰好发生在低层辐舍区、高层辐散区,并且和850 hPa典型的静止锋式切变线相对应;特大暴雨由狭窄而持续强盛的对流性回波带形成.切变线的组织作用使得新生回波单体不断地聚合到回波带中,是维持回波带持续强盛的原因.回波单体移动方向和回波带的走向接近一致造成迎仙持续的强降水.  相似文献   

Analysis of Stationary-Wave Nonstationarity in the Northern Hemisphere 500-hPa Height Field          下载免费PDF全文

ZHOU Guohu  WANG Panxing  SHI Ning  LI Qiaoping  SHE Gaojie 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2010,24(3):287-296

In this paper, the concept of stationary-wave nonstationarity is presented and elucidated in the framework of the Lorenz circulation decomposition. This concept indicates the relative magnitude of the zonal nonuniform abnormity to the intensity of stationary waves on the monthly mean scale. Based on the Lorenz circulation decomposition, the nonstationarity degree Ius(Ilus) of the global (local) stationary waves is defined, and then used to analyze the stationary-wave nonstationarity at 30° 60°N, where the intensity of stationary waves at 500 hPa in the Northern Hemisphere, as is well known, is very high. The following findings are obtained: (1) There exist seasonal southward and northward movements in the position of the nonstationarity zones of the global stationary waves. The steady stationary waves occur in midlatitudes (35°-55°N) in winter and in the subtropical region (south of 35°N) in summer, associated with the major troughs over East Asia and North America and the weak European trough in winter, and with the relatively steady subtropical high system in summer. A high value center of Ius is at 35°N in spring and 50°N in summer, which might be caused by the seasonal variation of stationary-wave intensity, particularly in association with the interannual variability of trough ridge positions of stationary waves on the monthly mean maps. (2) There exists obvious asymmetry in Ilus, with the steady zones always located in the areas controlled by strong troughs/ridges and the unsteady ones in the areas where the stationary-wave intensity is low. The Ilus in the subtropics (south of 35°N) is larger in winter than in summer, and vice versa in the midlatitude region (north of 35°N). The summertime distribution of Ilus on the whole shows a rather complicated structure. However, North Europe is the most unsteady area for local stationary waves, as represented by high values of Ilus in both summer and winter, while over the North American continent (about 120°E-60°W), the °Ilus is slightly less than 1 in summer, indicating that the stationary waves in this region are more steady than those over other mid and high latitude regions. (3) From North China to Northwest Pacific, there is a high value zone of Ilus in summer, with its center (45°N, 130°E) located in the east of Heilongjiang Province. This influences the summer climate of northern China, including Northeast, North, and Northwest China. It is obvious that the nonstationarity is an intrinsic attribute of stationary waves, and can be regarded as being of the same importance as the intensity and energy-spectrum structure of stationary waves in the studies of the general circulation system.  相似文献   

The East Pacific Wavetrain: Its variability and impact on the atmospheric circulation in the boreal winter   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

周普天  所玲玲  袁嘉灿  谭本馗 《大气科学进展》2012,29(3):471-483

The East Pacific wavetrain(EPW) refers to here the intense stationary wave activity detected in the troposphere over the East Pacific and North America in 45 northern winters from 1958 to 2002.The EPW is generated in the lower troposphere over the East Pacific,propagating predominantly eastward into North America and slightly upward then eventually into the stratosphere.The intensity of the EPW varies from year to year and exhibits apparent decadal variability.For the period 1958-1964,the EPW was in its second maximum,and it was weakest for the period 1965-1975,then it was strongest for the period 1976-1987.After 1987,the EPW weakened again.The intensity and position of the members(i.e.,the Aleutian low,the North American trough,and the North American ridge) of the EPW oscillate from time to time.For an active EPW versus a weak EPW,the Aleutian low deepens abnormally and shifts its center from the west to the east of the date line,in the middle and upper troposphere the East Asian trough extends eastward,and the Canadian ridge intensifies at the same time.The opposite is true for a weak EPW.Even in the lower stratosphere,significant changes in the stationary wave pattern are also observed.Interestingly the spatial variability of the EPW assumes a Pacific-North American(PNA)-like teleconnection pattern.It is likely that the PNA low-frequency oscillation is a reflection of the oscillations of intensity and position of the members of the EPW in horizontal direction.  相似文献   

THE ROLE OF THE MERIDIONAL CIRCULATION IN STATIONARY WAVE PROPAGATION     

Song Yan  Miao Jinhai 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1996,10(4):453-462

In a general baroclinic atmosphere,when the basic state includes meridional circulation,the sta-tionary waves might not only pass through the equatorial easterlies,but also strengthen significantly.The orographic forcing in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude might cause marked responses in thelow latitude atmosphere.This suggests that the meridional circulation plays an important role in theconnection of stationary responses in mid and low latitudes,and so does the heating forcing in theNorthern Hemisphere mid-latitude.Forced by the heating forcing in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude,the features similar to the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon circulation can be ob-tained.It appears that the meridional circulation plays certain role in the formation of summer mon-soon circulation.The heating anomaly forcing located at the eastern equatorial Pacific makes the sta-tionary waves present PNA(Pacific-North America)pattern in the winter hemisphere,but it doesnot in the summer hemisphere.It suggests that the meridional circulation has a marked influence onthe route of stationary wave propagation both in the winter and summer hemispheres.  相似文献