ENSEMBLE PREDICTION EXPERIMENTS OF TYPHOON TRACK BASED ON THE STOCHASTIC TOTAL TENDENCY PERTURBATION   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王晨稀 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2016,22(3):305-317

The GRAPES-TCM is used to make ensemble prediction experiments for typhoon track. Three kinds of ensemble schemes are designed for the experiments. A total of 109 experiments are made for the nine typhoons in 2011 and the integral time is 72 h. The experiment results are shown as follows. In the three ensemble schemes, on the whole, scheme 1 has the best track prediction. Its average absolute track error and overall deviations of typhoon moving speed and moving direction are all the smallest in the three schemes. For both scheme 1 and scheme 2, they are all smaller than those of their control predictions. Both of their ensemble predictions show superiority to their deterministic predictions. Overall, compared with the observations, the typhoon moving directions of the three schemes mainly skew to the right, and in the late integration they mainly tend to be relatively slow. In the three schemes, the track dispersion of scheme 1 is the largest and that of scheme 3 the smallest. In scheme 1 it is much larger than in schemes 2 and 3. The difference of dispersion between scheme 2 and scheme 3 is small. The track dispersions of the three schemes are all much smaller than their rational dispersions. Compared with the eight domestic and overseas operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, scheme 1 has better predictions than the other seven operational models except ECMWF NWP model. Scheme 1 has the value of operational application.  相似文献   

A spatiotemporal analysis of tropical cyclone tracks in the Atlantic Basin and their relationship to El Niño-Southern Oscillation     

Cody Frick 《自然地理学》2016,37(1):26-37

There has been an enhanced focus on Atlantic tropical cyclone climatologies with the significant cyclones of the past decade and the associated loss of life and property. This study examines the geographic location of cyclone tracks and their relationship to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The average annual cyclone track latitude and longitude correlate positively with hurricane-season El Niño indices, indicating that during El Niño conditions, tropical cyclone tracks are shifted northward and eastward. June–November indices explain 11–22% and 3–11% of the variance in cyclone track latitude and longitude, respectively. Examination of the strongest and weakest El Niño years yields similar results. Higher sea level pressure over North America, a slight contraction of the Bermuda High, and a slight decrease in 500 mb heights during El Niño years helps to explain the observed northward and eastward movement of tropical cyclone tracks during El Niño years. Additionally, weaker easterly and stronger southerly winds on the western side of the North Atlantic Basin exist during El Niño years. Although future tropical cyclone track projection is beyond the scope of this research, these results may provide insight into forecast improvement and ultimately better responses for coastal communities.  相似文献   

Probing fault zone heterogeneity on the Nojima fault: Constraints from zircon fission-track analysis of borehole samples   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Takahiro Tagami  Masaki Murakami 《Tectonophysics》2007,443(3-4):139

Fission-track (FT) thermochronologic analysis was performed on zircon separates from rocks in and around the Nojima fault, which was activated during the 1995 Kobe earthquake. Samples were collected from the University Group 500 m (UG-500) borehole and nearby outcrops. FT lengths in zircons from localities > 25 m away from the fault plane as well as one 0.1 m away from the fault in the footwall are characterized by concordant mean values of  10–11 μm and unimodal distributions with negative skewness, which showed no signs of appreciable reduction in FT length. In contrast, those adjacent (< 3 m) to the fault at depths on the hanging wall side showed significantly reduced mean track lengths of  6–8 μm and distributions having a peak around 6–7 μm with rather positive skewness. The former pattern is interpreted to reflect cooling through the zircon partial annealing zone (ZPAZ), without later, partial thermal overprints. The latter indicates substantial track shortening due probably to secondary heating by a thermal event(s) that locally perturbed the geothermal structure. Modeled zircon FT length and age data of partially annealed samples from the UG-500 borehole revealed a cooling episode in the ZPAZ that started at  4 Ma within  3 m from the fault plane, whereas those from the Geological Survey of Japan 750 m borehole record cooling started at  31–38 Ma within  25 m from the fault. On the basis of one-dimensional heat conduction modeling as well as the consistency between the degree of FT annealing and the degree of deformation/alteration of borehole rocks, these cooling ages in both boreholes are interpreted as consequences of ancient thermal overprints by heat transfer or dispersion via fluids in the fault zone. Together with the zircon FT data of a pseudotachylyte layer recently analyzed, it is suggested that the present Nojima fault system was reactivated in the Middle Quaternary from an ancient fault initiated at  56 Ma at mid-crustal depths. Also shown is a temporal/spatial variation in terms of the thermal anomalies recorded in the fault rocks, implying heterogeneity of hot fluid flows in the fault zone.  相似文献   

基于多源数据融合的山地型旅游区游客时空行为研究     

李亚娟  欧阳辰星  虞虎 《地球信息科学学报》2022,24(11):2171-2185

随着旅游者对休闲娱乐类旅游需求的不断增加,山地型旅游区已成为最受欢迎的旅游目的地之一,利用新兴且高效的轨迹记录方式挖掘山地型旅游区游客在小尺度范围内动态的时空行为特征和制约因素,对旅游区线路设计和旅游产品优化尤为重要,也将为山地型旅游区的深化发展和科学管理提供建议。本文以湖北省恩施州恩施大峡谷为案例地,基于“六只脚”平台的GNSS轨迹及位置照片数据,结合GIS在线地图绘制的景区路网和从BigMap平台获取的POI数据,选择GNSS轨迹栅格化的概念模式解析出恩施大峡谷游客轨迹的时空行为特征,尝试探讨与其他类别旅游区时空行为特征的差异,从而总结出山地型旅游区的行为特征,并通过网络点评数据和游记文本等网络文本挖掘行为特征形成的影响因素。研究表明：① 月份和季相层面,游客行为5月游客量处于峰值,节日效应明显,短假期效应较强;淡旺季游客行为轨迹呈非集聚性,旺季游客量主要受气候条件影响呈不稳定态势;② 游客行为轨迹于11:00-14:00游客量达到顶峰,日内结束时间相对较早,且兴趣点选择偏向知名度高的七星寨景区;③ 空间分布特征层面,受时空因素控制,单一路径景区轨迹集中度较强;④ 不同性别的游客拍照行为均偏向于高质量景区,但分布状态存在差异,男性拍照行为多呈片状和线状分布,女性多呈点状分布。本研究尝试以新数据和新方法探讨山地型旅游区游客的时空行为特征,旨在促进山地型旅游地的持续和高质量发展。  相似文献   

The Linkage between Midwinter Suppression of the North Pacific Storm Track and Atmospheric Circulation Features in the Northern Hemisphere     

Minghao YANG  Chongyin LI  Xin LI  Xiong CHEN  Lifeng LI 《大气科学进展》2022,39(3):502-518

The midwinter suppression(MWS) of the North Pacific storm track(NPST) has been an active research topic for decades. Based on the daily-mean NCEP/NCAR reanalysis from 1948 to 2018, this study investigates the MWS-related atmospheric circulation characteristics in the Northern Hemisphere by regression analysis with respect to a new MWS index, which may shed more light on this difficult issue. The occurrence frequency of the MWS of the upper-tropospheric NPST is more than 0.8 after the mid-1980 s. The MWS is accompanied by significantly positive sea-level pressure anomalies in Eurasia and negative anomalies over the North Pacific, which correspond to a strengthened East Asian winter monsoon. The intensified East Asian trough and atmospheric blocking in the North Pacific as well as the significantly negative low-level air temperature anomalies, lying upstream of the MNPST, are expected to be distinctly associated with the MWS. However, the relationship between the MWS and low-level atmospheric baroclinicity is somewhat puzzling.From the diagnostics of the eddy energy budget, it is identified that the inefficiency of the barotropic energy conversion related to the barotropic governor mechanism does not favor the occurrence of the MWS. In contrast, weakened baroclinic energy conversion, buoyancy conversion, and generation of eddy available potential energy by diabatic heating are conducive to the occurrence of the MWS. In addition, Ural blocking in the upstream region of the MNPST may be another candidate mechanism associated with the MWS.  相似文献   

沉积盆地中恢复地层剥蚀量的新方法   总被引：33，自引：0，他引：33  

王毅  金之钧 《地球科学进展》1999,14(5):482-486

主要介绍了磷灰石裂变径迹分析法,沉积波动过程分析法和宇宙成因核素分析法等３种恢复和计算地层剥蚀量的新方法。它们的优点是不但给出一个剥蚀面造成的地层总的剥蚀量,还能详细刻画整个剥蚀过程,从而能计算出每一期构造抬升引起的地层剥蚀量。  相似文献   

Dynamic variation of ambient shear stress field before and after three strong earthquakes in Yunnan     

王绍晋  龙晓帆 《地震学报(英文版)》1999,12(2):165-174

IntroductionThecrustaltectonicmovementisacomplicatedevolutionprocesswithtimeandspace.Spatially,themovementofcrustaltectoniciscloselyrelatedtotheinter-movementandinteractionofmulti-leveledcrustalblocksinacertainregionandtheirborderfaults.Temporally,themovementiscloselyrelatedtothatofmulti-leveledcrustalblocksandtimesequencedevelopmentofinteraction.Anearthquakeoccurrenceistheresultofsuddenruptureofcrustmediaundertheactionoftectonicstressfield,isalsoacomplicatedprocessinnercrust.Duetotheobviousi…  相似文献   

水牛蹄型深海集矿机履齿设计及牵引性能研究     

丁聪  陈旭光  刘学麟  刘茜茜  李宗晏 《海洋工程》2024,(2):26-41

作为深海采矿系统的重要组成部分,深海集矿机的技术研究和开发一直是许多国家的难题。为了提高深海集矿机在稀软沉积物上的牵引性能,基于水牛蹄的曲面结构特征和特殊几何结构,设计了一款仿水牛蹄蹄型履齿。以该款履齿的结构参数为研究对象,通过对朗肯被动土压力理论的优化,得到了仿水牛蹄蹄型履齿的牵引力解析解,建立了对应的履齿仿生参数对履齿牵引力的影响公式。结合正交试验方法进行了不同形式履齿在沉积物上运动的单、多履齿剪切试验,将仿水牛蹄蹄型履齿与直型履齿、仿水牛蹄轮廓履齿（另一种仿生履齿）进行对比试验,并通过模型车试验验证了该款履齿的可行性。结果表明：3种履齿中,仿水牛蹄蹄型履齿提供的最大牵引力最高。研究可为进一步优化仿水牛蹄蹄型履齿结构参数和提高深海稀软底质机械的牵引性能提供参考依据。  相似文献   

广州市轨道交通二十一号线工程路基抗震性测试研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

李同安 《地震工程学报》2018,40(4):759-764

传统路基动模量法大都进行单路基抗震性能分析,缺乏复合路基抗震性能分析,存在较高的偏差。对广州市轨道交通二十一号线工程路基抗震性进行测试,分析该地地质条件后,通过标准贯入实验法判断原始路基土质液化情况,使用瑞典条分法测试原始路基的抗震性能,判别出该路基液化土层滑动安全系数低、抗震稳定性差,应对其进行复合路基加固。通过圆弧滑动法对加固后的复合路基中碎石桩桩网结构路基以及CFG桩桩网结构路基进行抗震性测试。实验结果表明,所提方法抗干扰性能强且测试结果精度高。  相似文献   

落地通信基站机房地震易损性及震后功能失效概率评估          下载免费PDF全文

毛晨曦  李诗尧  张亮泉 《世界地震工程》2018,34(2):055-64

机房是移动通信基站的重要组成部分,其地震易损性将决定基站在震后的功能状态,即基站所辖范围内的移动通信服务在震后是否可以正常使用。在对我国北方某市典型落地通信基站机房进行实地考察的基础上,确定了影响机房地震后使用功能的重要设施（即基站板房、内部走线架、通信机柜和蓄电池组）;随后采用有限元软件ABAQUS分别建立了这些设施的数值模型,通过Pushover分析确定了每种设施的损伤模式、损伤水平评价指标及其数值;通过IDA分析得到了每种设施的抗震性能,并通过对IDA分析结果的统计得到了这些重要设施的地震易损性曲线;最后,给出了基于故障树模型的典型通信基站机房震后功能评估的方法。该工作将作为基本环节用于城市及地区移动通信系统的地震后功能状态评估与预测。  相似文献