北大西洋风暴轴高低空分布及其能量诊断     

余霄  黄菲  王鑫  管承扬  张荣望 《气候与环境研究》2017,22(6):658-670

利用1979~2013年NCEP再分析数据,通过经验正交分解对比了前冬时期北大西洋风暴轴的高低空分布,并用涡动动能(Eddy Kinetic Energy,EKE)方程对风暴轴高低空分布型差异进行了诊断。研究结果表明:上层和下层第一空间分布型差异巨大,对流层下层风暴轴中心偏北,靠近极地,而上层风暴轴中心偏西南,靠近北美沿岸。EKE方程诊断结果表明:正压转换项在高低空符号相反,导致了EKE在上、下层分布出现显著差异,即上层正压转换项为负,在扰动发展中起能量耗散作用,而下层正压转换项为正,且极大值区域对应下层EKE极大值区域,为风暴轴下层向极区域增强的主要原因。而斜压转换和非地转位势通量散度在上层均为正,且远大于下层,为风暴轴上层涡动能量维持的原因,也从涡动能量收支上解释了风暴轴的主体出现在上层。  相似文献   

A Dynamical Statistical Model for Prediction of a Tropical Cyclone     

S. K. Roy Bhowmik  S. D. Kotal 《Marine Geodesy》2013,36(4):412-423

A dynamical statistical method is applied for operational forecasting of the Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone “Nargis” of April–May 2008. The method consists of three forecast components, namely (a) analysis of Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP) and maximum potential intensity, (b) track prediction, and (c) 12 hourly intensity prediction for forecasts up to 72 hours. The results of the study showed that GPP could provide necessary predictive signal at early stages of development on the further intensification of the low pressure system into a tropical cyclone. The landfall forecast position errors by different operational numerical models (NWP) showed landfall position errors ranging from 10 km to 150 km and landfall time error ranges from 6 hours early to 6 hours delay. The dynamical statistical model is capable to provide 12 hourly nearly realistic intensity forecasts up to 60 hours of forecast.  相似文献   

Apatite Fission Track Thermochronology of Granite from the Xiazhuang Uranium Ore Field, South China: Implications for Exhumation History and Ore Preservation     

SUN Yue  CHEN Zhengle  PAN Jiayong  HUO Hailong  LI Haidong  SUN Junjie  XU Guangchun 《《地质学报》英文版》2024,98(2):430-440

Xiazhuang uranium ore field, located in the southern part of the Nanling Metallogenic Belt, is considered one of the largest granite-related U regions in South China. In this paper, we contribute new apatite fission track data and thermal history modeling to constrain the exhumation history and evaluate preservation potential of the Xiazhuang Uranium ore field. Nine Triassic outcrop granite samples collected from different locations of Xiazhuang Uranium ore field yield AFT ages ranging from 43 to 24 Ma with similar mean confined fission track lengths ranging from 11.8 ± 2.0 to 12.9 ± 1.9 μm and Dpar values between 1.01 and 1.51 μm. The robustness time-temperature reconstructions of samples from the hanging wall of Huangpi fault show that the Xiazhuang Uranium ore field experienced a time of monotonous and slow cooling starting from middle Paleocene to middle Miocene (~60–10 Ma), followed by relatively rapid exhumation in the late Miocene (~10–5 Ma) and nearly thermal stability in the Pliocene–Quaternary (~5–0 Ma). The amount of exhumation after U mineralization since the Middle Paleogene was estimated as ~4.3 ± 1.8 km according to the integrated thermal history model. Previous studies indicate that the ore-forming ages of U deposits in the Xiazhuang ore field are mainly before Middle Paleocene and the mineralization depths are more than 4.4 ± 1.2 km. Therefore, the exhumation history since middle Paleocene plays important roles in the preservation of the Xiazhuang Uranium ore field.  相似文献   

AIRS资料质量控制对飓风路径模拟的影响试验   总被引：1，自引：2，他引：1  

王云峰  韩月琪  马刚  刘辉  王雨顺 《气象科学》2014,34(4):383-389

对WRFDA模式中AIRS亮温资料质量控制方案进行了检验,并以美国Earl飓风为例进行数值试验,研究了质量控制方案对飓风路径模拟的影响。试验结果表明:WRFDA模式中11条质量控制原则对红外高光谱AIRS亮温资料的同化效果影响很大,不论是加入逐条质量控制原则,还是缺席某条质量控制原则,飓风路径的模拟情况都比不上控制试验;而在所有质量控制原则都加入之后,在大部分模拟时段内同化试验中模拟的飓风路径偏差都要小于控制试验,而且同化试验中最大路径偏差也小于控制试验。不同的质量控制原则对观测资料的过滤能力也不一样,其中地表发射率Jacobian分量检测、临边检测、云检测和SST检测等4个质量控制原则剔除卫星资料数量相对较多。本文中AIRS亮温资料质量控制方案的对比试验,可以为中国发展红外高光谱卫星系统提供非常有益的借鉴和参考。  相似文献   

海洋表层温度对台风"蔷薇"路径和强度预测精度的影响     

赵彪  乔方利  王关锁 《海洋学报(英文版)》2012,31(4):41-52

基于中尺度大气模式WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model),首先对2007年3次船舶辐射通量观测进行模拟,以检验WRF对长波和短波辐射通量的模拟能力,结果表明使用中国近海海洋环境数值预报系统环流模式POM(Princeton Ocean Model)模拟的高时空分辨率的海洋表层温度能够显著改进短波辐射通量的模拟,而对长波辐射通量模拟的改进不明显。然后,将业务化运行的中国近海海洋环境数值预报系统后报的逐时海洋表面温度(SST)作为WRF底边界条件,对2008年15号强台风"蔷薇"(Jangmi)过程进行了数值后报试验。结果表明,与使用NCEP/NCAR的SST试验后报的台风中心位置偏差相比,使用高时空分辨率的SST能够较为显著地改善"蔷薇"的路径模拟,台风中心位置模拟偏差减少11%,尤其在台风减弱阶段,台风中心位置模拟偏差减少37%。台风强度在台风发展的不同阶段对下垫面SST的变化敏感性不同。台风路径附近的海表面温度下降会导致海洋向大气输送的热量减少从而减弱台风强度。  相似文献   

近60年西北太平洋台风年代际变化特征及成因的初步分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

余帆  李培  李向军  张涛 《海洋预报》2012,29(1):1-5

利用60年台风资料,对西北太平洋台风的频数、路径和强度变化做统计分析。结果表明:西北太平洋的台风活动在20世纪60年代是高峰期,70年代则是低谷期,从20世纪90年代后期开始,台风活动总体处于低谷期;台风路径主要以转向为主,在20世纪60、70年代平均路径比较偏南,而进入21世纪后平均路径比较偏北;强度在20世纪50、60年代总体较强,后25年总体较弱;西北太平洋台风异常偏多时,西北太平洋副高弱且位置偏东,太平洋海温分布呈"拉尼娜"特征;台风异常偏少时,副高强且位置偏西,太平洋海温分布呈"厄尔尼诺"特征。  相似文献   

1010号“莫兰蒂”台风登陆地点分析     

赵惠芳  何秀恋  蔡英群  杨建东  陈川珍 《海洋预报》2012,29(1):31-35

应用区域自动站10分钟加密的风场、气压场和变压场资料,结合雷达回波资料,对2010年10号"莫兰蒂"台风登陆地点进行综合分析表明:"莫兰蒂"台风于2010年9月10日03时(北京时)左右在福建省晋江市围头-深沪之间沿岸登陆,登陆之后沿着晋江市东部镇(街)向NE移动,于3:40前后进入石狮市宝盖镇附近,然后转NNE移动,穿过石狮西部镇(街)再次进入晋江市,之后转NE方向移动,于6时前后移出晋江市。  相似文献   

董家口港溢油漂移数值模拟     

孙然然  吕志峰  王学昌 《海岸工程》2012,(2):7-13

采用油粒子模式,以原油为溢油油种,在模拟潮流的基础上分别预测了董家口30万t码头航道溢油油膜在静风、西北风和不利风向3种情况下的油膜动态漂移过程。对溢油油膜漂移路径及扫海范围的模拟,可为码头溢油应急计划的制定提供一定的导向作用。  相似文献   

中－新生代龙门山的差异隆升     

侯明才  李智武  陈洪德 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2012,42(1):104-111

通过对采自龙门山南段、中段和北段花岗岩与砂岩样品中的磷灰石、锆石的裂变径迹年龄的分析,发现中生代以来龙门山的隆升在走向上存在分段性,在近东西方向上存在分带性。从松潘－甘孜褶皱带→龙门山冲断带→川西前陆盆地：松潘－甘孜褶皱带整体发生区域隆升,裂变径迹年龄与高程呈正相关关系;在龙门山冲断带,裂变径迹年龄与高程呈负相关关系或无关,说明冲断层在隆升过程中起主导作用;在川西前陆盆地,样品随埋深发生部分或全部退火。茂县－汶川断裂两侧锆石裂变径迹年龄差异明显而磷灰石裂变径迹年龄无明显差异,显示茂县－汶川断裂以西地区在38～10 Ma发生过更为快速的隆升;北川断裂两侧磷灰石裂变径迹年龄差异明显,表明北川断裂以西地区在10～0 Ma发生过快速隆升。从走向上看,从龙门山北段向南段,锆石裂变径迹年龄呈逐渐增大的趋势,这可能意味着印支末期或燕山早期,龙门山北段发生了更快的隆升;而磷灰石裂变径迹年龄总体上从龙门山北段向中段和南段呈递减趋势,反映新生代期间龙门山中、南段隆升更快。  相似文献   

Dating of altered mafic intrusions by applying a zircon fission track thermochronometer to baked country rock,and implications for the timing of volcanic activity during the opening of the Japan Sea          下载免费PDF全文

Hiroyuki Hoshi  Hideki Iwano  Tohru Danhara  Naoyoshi Iwata 《Island Arc》2015,24(2):221-231

Once a mafic intrusive rock has become altered, it is generally difficult to obtain a reliable intrusion age using conventional isotopic dating methods. To overcome this problem, this study used zircon fission track (ZFT) thermochronometry to determine the timing of crystallization of altered mafic intrusions. ZFT dating was carried out on samples of baked granite country rock adjacent to dolerite dikes (5–10 m thick) in the Takato area of central Japan. Three granite samples collected within 8 mm of a dike contact yielded consistent ZFT ages of 17–16 Ma, with confined track lengths indicative of the complete annealing of pre‐existing tracks by reheating due to dike intrusion. An older ZFT age was obtained for one granite sample collected within 20 mm of the contact, but confined track length measurements indicate that this is an incompletely reset age that lies between the ZFT age of the unbaked granitic country rocks (ca. 55 Ma) and the emplacement age of the dike. Petrographic examinations suggest that post‐intrusion hydrothermal activity did not influence the ZFT ages. We conclude that the 17–16 Ma ZFT age represents the emplacement age of the dikes. Our results show that ZFT dating of baked country rock is an effective tool for dating altered mafic intrusions, for which other dating techniques are not applicable. In the eastern part of Southwest Japan, dispersed volcanic activity occurred in the late Early to early Middle Miocene (18–15 Ma), and the volcanic belt extended into the forearc. This pulse of activity was possibly related to the injection of asthenospheric material into the trench‐side mantle wedge beneath the Japan arc. We also present young apatite fission track ages (ca. 4 Ma) that may reflect a Middle Miocene or later thermal event associated with local magmatic activity near the Takato area.  相似文献