An Evaluation of Temperature and Precipitation Surface-Based and Reanalysis Datasets for the Canadian Arctic, 1950–2010     

Maja Rapaić  Marko Markovic  Diane Chaumont 《大气与海洋》2015,53(3):283-303

The spatial and temporal consistency of seasonal air temperature and precipitation in eight widely used gridded observation-based climate datasets (CANGRD, CRU-TS3.1, CRUTEM4.1, GISTEMP, GPCC, GPCP, HadCRUT3, and UDEL) and eight reanalyses (20CR, CFSR, ERA-40, ERA-Interim, JRA25, MERRA, NARR, and NCEP2) was evaluated over the Canadian Arctic for the 1950–2010 period. The evaluation used the CANGRD dataset, which is based on homogenized temperature and adjusted precipitation from climate stations, as a reference. Dataset agreement and bias were observed to exhibit important spatial, seasonal, and temporal variability over the Canadian Arctic with the largest spread occurring between datasets over mountain and coastal regions and over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Reanalysis datasets were typically warmer and wetter than surface observation-based datasets, with CFSR and 20CR exhibiting biases in total annual precipitation on the order of 300?mm. Warm bias in 20CR exceeded 12°C in winter over the western Arctic. Analysis of the temporal consistency of datasets over the 1950–2010 period showed evidence of discontinuities in several datasets as well as a noticeable increase in dataset spread in the period after approximately 2000. Declining station networks, increased automation, and the inclusion of new satellite data streams in reanalyses are potential contributing factors to this phenomenon. Evaluation of trends over the 1950–2010 period showed a relatively consistent picture of warming and increased precipitation over the Canadian Arctic from all datasets, with CANGRD giving moistening trends two times larger than the multi-dataset average related to the adjustment of the station precipitation data. The study results indicate that considerable care is needed when using gridded climate datasets in local or regional scale applications in the Canadian Arctic.  相似文献   

水环境数学模拟的应用现状及存在问题     

解艳  薛科社 《地下水》2010,32(6):79-80,87

水环境中污染物的迁移转化过程模拟和预测是水生态环境健康诊断、预测、预警及控制管理的重要基础。水环境数学模拟已经在国内外有了非常广泛的应用,并且成为国内外学者研究的热点。本文介绍了水环境数学模型的基础研究和应用现状,并提出其发展趋势和国内水质数学模型存在的主要问题。  相似文献   

农业技术扩散中的农户采用行为研究:国外进展与国内趋势   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

龙冬平  李同昇  于正松 《地域研究与开发》2014,(5)

农户是我国农区的微观经济单元,是农业技术采用的行为主体。以农户为对象的农业技术扩散采用行为的研究对于诱导农户行为、提高农业技术的采用效率、促进农区发展具有重要的理论和应用价值。从研究视角、研究方法、研究内容3个方面对国内外相关研究成果进行较为系统的梳理,总结评述最新进展和特点,并在此基础上对农户技术采用行为的研究趋势进行展望,希冀有助于推进国内对农户技术采用行为的深入研究,进而为促进农业技术扩散与推广、提高农业科技成果转化率提供参考。  相似文献   

Trends in Canadian Short‐Duration Extreme Rainfall: Including an Intensity–Duration–Frequency Perspective     

Mark W. Shephard  Eva Mekis  Robert J. Morris  Yang Feng  Xuebin Zhang  Karen Kilcup 《大气与海洋》2014,52(5):398-417

Short-duration (5 minutes to 24 hours) rainfall extremes are important for a number of purposes, including engineering infrastructure design, because they represent the different meteorological scales of extreme rainfall events. Both single location and regional analyses of the changes in short-duration extreme rainfall amounts across Canada, as observed by tipping bucket rain gauges from 1965 to 2005, are presented. The single station analysis shows a general lack of a detectable trend signal, at the 5% significance level, because of the large variability and the relatively short period of record of the extreme short-duration rainfall amounts. The single station 30-minute to 24-hour durations show that, on average, 4% of the total number of stations have statistically significant increasing amounts of rainfall, whereas 1.6% of the cases have significantly decreasing amounts. However, regional spatial patterns are apparent in the single station trend results. Thus, for the same durations regional trends are presented by grouping the single station trend statistics across Canada. This regional trend analysis shows that at least two-thirds of the regions across Canada have increasing trends in extreme rainfall amounts, with up to 33% being significant (depending on location and duration). Both the southwest and the east (Newfoundland) coastal regions generally show significant increasing regional trends for 1- and 2-hour extreme rainfall durations. For the shortest durations of 5–15 minutes, the general overall regional trends in the extreme amounts are more variable, with increasing and decreasing trends occurring with similar frequency; however, there is no evidence of statistically significant decreasing regional trends in extreme rainfall amounts. The decreasing regional trends for the 5- to 15-minute duration amounts tend to be located in the St. Lawrence region of southern Quebec and in the Atlantic provinces. Additional analysis using criteria specified for traditional water management practice (e.g., Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF)) shows that fewer than 5.6% and 3.4% of the stations have significant increasing and decreasing trends, respectively, in extreme annual maximum single location observation amounts. This indicates that at most locations across Canada the traditional single station IDF assumption that historical extreme rainfall observations are stationary (in terms of the mean) over the period of record for an individual station is not violated. However, the trend information is still useful complementary information that can be considered for water management purposes, especially in terms of regional analysis.  相似文献   

Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow from the Wuding River basin in China     

Li-Juan Li  Lu Zhang  Hao Wang  Juan Wang  Jun-Wei Yang  De-Juan Jiang  Jiu-Yi Li  Da-Yong Qin 《水文研究》2007,21(25):3485-3491

Located in the Loess Plateau of China, the Wuding River basin (30 261 km²) contributes significantly to the total sediment yield in the Yellow River. To reduce sediment yield from the catchment, large-scale soil conservation measures have been implemented in the last four decades. These included building terraces and sediment-trapping dams and changing land cover by planting trees and improving pastures. It is important to assess the impact of these measures on the hydrology of the catchment and to provide a scientific basis for future soil conservation planning. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall–Sneyers rank test was employed to detect trends and changes in annual streamflow for the period of 1961 to 1997. Two methods were used to assess the impact of climate variability on mean annual streamflow. The first is based on a framework describing the sensitivity of annual streamflow to precipitation and potential evaporation, and the second relies on relationships between annual streamflow and precipitation. The two methods produced consistent results. A significant downward trend was found for annual streamflow, and an abrupt change occurred in 1972. The reduction in annual streamflow between 1972 and 1997 was 42% compared with the baseline period (1961–1971). Flood-season streamflow showed an even greater reduction of 49%. The streamflow regime of the catchment showed a relative reduction of 31% for most percentile flows, except for low flows, which showed a 57% reduction. The soil conservation measures reduced streamflow variability, leading to more uniform streamflow. It was estimated that the soil conservation measures account for 87% of the total reduction in mean annual streamflow in the period of 1972 to 1997, and the reduction due to changes in precipitation and potential evaporation was 13%. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Extreme storms in Malmö, Sweden     

Lars Bengtsson  Stefan Milloti 《水文研究》2010,24(24):3462-3475

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福建安海湾表层沉积物粒度特征及其现代沉积过程分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李东义  徐勇航  王爱军  郑斌鑫  李国刚 《沉积学报》2015,33(4):724-734

通过对福建安海湾表层沉积物的粒度分析和对比,应用系统聚类分析、粒径趋势模型和切应力计算公式,探讨了研究区粒度的分布特征、沉积环境分区、表层沉积物输运趋势及其影响因素.研究结果表明,研究区包括6种表层沉积物类型,以黏土质粉砂和粉砂为主,沉积物大体呈现自海湾两侧潮滩向潮汐通道变粗的分布趋势.表层沉积物粒度的分布特征与水动力条件和物质来源密切相关,湾口附近及湾内深槽内,细颗粒的沉积物被再悬浮带走,粗颗粒的含量增大;在湾内潮滩上,悬浮物质因水动力作用逐渐减弱发生分选沉降,形成向岸变细的横向分异.海湾外泥沙随潮流不断地向海湾东侧岸滩运移,海湾周边陆源来沙由湾顶部往湾口方向下泄,两者是导致表层沉积物出现明显的顺时针方向汇聚趋势的原因之一;表层沉积物的输运趋势、悬浮泥沙的输运、潮滩植被与湾口沙嘴的遮蔽效应共同影响了研究区内浅滩地形的形成和变化.研究区可分为四类沉积环境区,以潮滩和潮汐通道环境为主,不同沉积区内的粒度参数、粒级频率和敏感粒级均有差异,动力条件差异和不同物源的影响程度是现代沉积环境格局的主要影响因素.  相似文献   

长株潭地区建设用地扩张遥感时空特征分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

易凤佳  李仁东  常变蓉  邱娟 《国土资源遥感》2015,(2):160-166

利用遥感、GIS一体化技术,获取长沙、株洲、湘潭3市(长株潭地区)2000年、2005年和2010年3期陆地卫星图像,提取建设用地扩张及其空间分布信息。运用扩张速度指数和强度指数分别对2000—2010年间10 a变化以及2005年为界的前后两个5 a区域建设用地时序特征进行分析;利用优势度指数分析了区域建设用地扩张的空间趋向性。结果表明:长株潭地区建设用地在不同时期都处于增长的趋势,其中前5 a建设用地扩张速度和强度都要明显高于后5 a。2000—2010年间建设用地面积增加约3.94万hm2,前后2个时期的扩张面积分别占增加总量的57.30%和42.70%。对长株潭地区建设用地扩张进行时空特征分析,认为建设用地扩张引起区域内耕地和林地在数量和空间格局上的变化,城区周围9~12 km范围内耕地极易转入建设用地;2个时期河流附近耕地流入建设用地随距离变化而呈现不同特征;前5 a城区周围林地转入建设用地强度大,距离交通用地3 km附近的林地易转入建设用地。  相似文献   

PLAM指数跟踪方法对中国沙尘天气过程及其波动变化特征的研究          下载免费PDF全文

王继志  杨元琴  王亚强  张光智 《气象与环境学报》2013,29(5):92-97

采用1980-2011年气象台站地面气象要素观测资料、高空探空资料,时间和空间加密气象观测站资料,以及中国气象档案馆原始天气图表等资料,基于沙尘气溶胶浓度（PM₁₀）潜势源地贡献函数PSCF（Potential source contribution function）的沙尘系统追踪方法,发展空气质量气象条件PLAM（……）指数对沙尘天气过程的路径跟踪,给出1980-2011年东北亚沙尘天气过程特征分布;采用Spline趋势分析,讨论沙尘天气系统强度的年变化特征。结果表明：基于气溶胶浓度PSCF函数和气象条件PLAM指数追踪得出,中国和东亚地区沙尘天气过程年际强度变化并非单调减弱,具有历史持续性与转折突变性并存的波状变化趋势,出现准10 a的高低频活动特征。  相似文献   

An Overview of the Second Generation Adjusted Daily Precipitation Dataset for Trend Analysis in Canada     

Éva Mekis  Lucie A. Vincent 《大气与海洋》2013,51(2):163-177

A second generation adjusted precipitation daily dataset has been prepared for trend analysis in Canada. Daily rainfall and snowfall amounts have been adjusted for 464 stations for known measurement issues such as wind undercatch, evaporation and wetting losses for each type of rain-gauge, snow water equivalent from ruler measurements, trace observations and accumulated amounts from several days. Observations from nearby stations were sometimes combined to create time series that are longer; hence, making them more useful for trend studies. In this new version, daily adjustments are an improvement over the previous version because they are derived from an extended dataset and enhanced metadata knowledge. Datasets were updated to cover recent years, including 2009. The impact of the adjustments on rainfall and snowfall total amounts and trends was examined in detail. As a result of adjustments, total rainfall amounts have increased by 5 to 10% in southern Canada and by more than 20% in the Canadian Arctic, compared to the original observations, while the effect of the adjustments on snowfall were larger and more variable throughout the country. The slope of the rain trend lines decreased as a result of the larger correction applied to the older rain-gauges while the slope of the snow trend lines increased, mainly along the west coast and in the Arctic. Finally, annual and seasonal rainfall and snowfall trends based on the adjusted series were computed for 1950–2009 and 1900–2009. Overall, rainfall has increased across the country while a mix of non-significant increasing and decreasing trends was found during the summer in the Canadian Prairies. Snowfall has increased mainly in the north while a significant decrease was observed in the southwestern part of the country for 1950–2009.

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