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孙少安  申重阳  项爱民 《大地测量与地球动力学》2009,29(3):11-15

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Effects of land‐use changes on hydrological processes in the middle basin of the Heihe River,northwest China     

Genxu Wang  Jingqi Liu  Jumpei Kubota  Ling Chen 《水文研究》2007,21(10):1370-1382

The effects of land‐use changes on the runoff process in the midstream plain of this arid inland river basin are a key factor in the rational allocation of water resources to the middle and lower reaches. The question is whether and by how much increasingly heavy land use impacts the hydrological processes in such an arid inland river basin. The catchment of the Heihe River, one of the largest inland rivers in the arid region of northwest China, was chosen to investigate the hydrological responses to land‐use change. Flow duration curves were used to detect trends and variations in runoff between the upper and lower reaches. Relationships among precipitation, upstream runoff, and hydrological variables were identified to distinguish the effects of climatic changes and upstream runoff changes on middle and downstream runoff processes. The quantitative relation between midstream cultivated land use and various parameters of downstream runoff processes were analysed using the four periods of land‐use data since 1956. The Volterra numerical function relation of the hydrological non‐linear system response was utilized to develop a multifactor hydrological response simulation model based on the three factors of precipitation, upstream runoff, and cultivated land area. The results showed that, since 1967, the medium‐ and high‐coverage natural grassland area in the midstream region has decreased by 80·1%, and the downstream runoff has declined by 27·32% due to the continuous expansion of the cultivated land area. The contribution of cultivated land expansion to the impact on the annual total runoff is 14–31%, on the annual, spring and winter base flow it is 44–75%, and on spring and winter discharge it is 23–64%. Once the water conservation plan dominated by land‐use structural adjustments is implemented over the next 5 years, the mean annual discharge in the lower reach could increase by 8·98% and the spring discharge by 26·28%. This will significantly alleviate the imbalance between water supply and demand in both its quantity and temporal distribution in the middle and lower reaches. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Estimation of potential evapotranspiration over the Yellow River basin: reference crop evaporation or Shuttleworth–Wallace?     

M. C. Zhou  H. Ishidaira  K. Takeuchi 《水文研究》2007,21(14):1860-1874

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is a key input to hydrological models. Its estimation has often been via the Penman–Monteith (P–M) equation, most recently in the form of an estimate of reference evapotranspiration (RET) as recommended by FAO‐56. In this paper the Shuttleworth–Wallace (S–W) model is implemented to estimate PET directly in a form that recognizes vegetation diversity and temporal change without reference to experimental measurements and without calibration. The threshold values of vegetation parameters are drawn from the literature based on the International Geosphere–Biosphere Programme land cover classification. The spatial and temporal variation of the LAI of vegetation is derived from the composite NOAA‐AVHRR normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) using a method based on the SiB2 model, and the Climate Research Unit database is used to provide the required meteorological data. All these data inputs are publicly and globally available. Consequently, the implementation of the S–W model developed in this study is applicable at the global scale, an essential requirement if it is to be applied in data‐poor or ungauged large basins. A comparison is made between the FAO‐56 method and the S–W model when applied to the Yellow River basin for the whole of the last century. The resulting estimates of RET and PET and their association with vegetation types and leaf area index (LAI) are examined over the whole basin both annual and monthly and at six specific points. The effect of NDVI on the PET estimate is further evaluated by replacing the monthly NDVI product with the 10‐day product. Multiple regression relationships between monthly PET, RET, LAI, and climatic variables are explored for categories of vegetation types. The estimated RET is a good climatic index that adequately reflects the temporal change and spatial distribution of climate over the basin, but the PET estimated using the S–W model not only reflects the changes in climate, but also the vegetation distribution and the development of vegetation in response to climate. Although good statistical relationships can be established between PET, RET and/or climatic variables, applying these relationships likely will result in large errors because of the strong non‐linearity and scatter between the PET and the LAI of vegetation. It is concluded that use of the implementation of the S–W model described in this study results in a physically sound estimate of PET that accounts for changing land surface conditions. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The impact of the nitrogen carryover effect on economic activity and the environment     

Wen-yuan Huang  Russ W. Keim  Yao-chi Lu  N. D. Uri  Terry Kelley 《Environmental Geology》1998,34(2-3):116-127

 The economic and environmental consequences of soil nitrogen tests can have significant impacts on agricultural production. Some of these are explored here. The pre-side-dress soil N-test is evaluated for a hypothetical farmer growing corn at the ARS Sustainable Agriculture Demonstration Farm site in southern Maryland. For a farmer not currently using a soil N-test, adoption of this technology can lead to the enhancement of net farm income and the reduction in nitrogen loss to the environment. This will transpire only if the farmer is currently underestimating nitrogen carryover by more than 25% or applying nitrogen fertilizer based solely on an expected plateau-yield goal. Received: 13 February 1997 · Accepted: 13 May 1997  相似文献   

Influence of Land Use/Cover Change on Storm Runoff— A Case Study of Xitiaoxi River Basin in Upstream of Taihu Lake Watershed     

WAN Rongrong YANG Guishan 《中国地理科学(英文版)》2007,17(4):349-356

Land use/cover change (LUCC) is one of the main boundary conditions which influence many hydrologic processes. In view of the importance of Taihu Lake Watershed in China and the urgency of discovering the impacts of LUCC on storm runoff, two flood events under five land cover scenarios in the Xitiaoxi River Basin of the upstream of Taihu Lake watershed were simulated by distributed hydrologic modeling system HEC-HMS. The influences of each land cover on storm runoff were discussed. It was concluded that under the same rainstorm the ascending order of runoff coefficient and peak flow produced by the 5 different land covers were woodland, shrub, grassland, arable land, and built-up land; the descending order of swelling time were woodland, shrub, grassland, arable land, and built-up land. Scenario of built-up land was the first to reach peak flow, then arable land, grassland, shrub, and woodland. There were close relationships between the runoff coefficients produced by the 5 different land covers. The degrees of impacts on runoff coefficient of land cover change modes were sorted by descending: woodland to built-up land, shrub to built-up land, grassland to built-up land, arable land to built-up land, woodland to arable land, shrub to arable land, arable land to grassland, shrub to grassland, grassland to arable land, and woodland to shrub. Urbanization will contribute to flood disaster, while forestation will mitigate flood disaster.  相似文献   

Global sea level change and thermal contribution   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Juncheng Zuo  Jianli Zhang  Ling Du  Peiliang Li  Lei Li 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2009,8(1):1-8

The global long-term sea level trend is obtained from the analysis of tide gauge data and TOPEX/Poseidon data. The linear trend of global mean sea level is highly non-umiform spatially, with an average rate of 2.2 mm year-1 in T/P sea-level rise from October 1992 to September 2002. Sea level change duc to temperature vanation (the thermosteric sea level) is discussed. The results are compared with TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data in the same temporal span at different spatial scales. It is indicated that the ther-mal effect accounts for 86% and 73% of the observed seasonal variability in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. The TOPEX/Poseidon observed sea level lags behind the TSI, by 2 months in the zonal band of 40°-60° in both the northern and southern hemispheres. Systematic differences of about 1-2cm between TOPEX/Poseidon observations and thermosteric sea level data are obtained. The potential causes for these differences include water exchange among the atmosphere, land, and oceans, and some pos-sible deviations in thermosteric contribution estimates and geophysical corrections to the TOPEX/Poseidon data.  相似文献   

南海热带气旋的气候变化及强度预测方法研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

梁??健  李晓娟  谢定升  翁向宇 《海洋科学》2008,32(12):29-34

建立南海海域1949～2007年6～10月份热带气旋（以下简称TC）年、月频数和TC中心强度的历史资料统计文件，分析TC的年月变化。结果表明：近50年，TC具有10a左右的周期变化，1964～1974年和1985～1995年为南海两个强台风以上级别频发期，1997～2006年为TC频数少且强度弱的时期。同时TC强度的空间分布分析结果表明，中沙北部海域和东沙西部海域为强台风多发生区，各月TC强度分布特征明显不同，且其加强通道具有南-北-南阶段性变化。另外，通过分别对1949～2007年北半球500hPa高度场及海温场的格点资料和TC强度历史资料的相关计算，选取高相关格点，根据相关权重组成组合因子，构建二次型预测方程，做年月TC强度预测。预测检验结果显示，冬季的高度场和海温场对次年的TC强度预测效果良好。  相似文献   

Separate and interactive effects of eutrophication and climate variables on the ecosystem elements of the Gulf of Riga   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jonne Kotta  Ilmar Kotta  Mart Simm  Maria Pllupüü 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2009,84(4):509-518

There is currently a critical knowledge gap in how eutrophication and climate variables separately and interactively impact the dynamics of marine ecosystems. Based on long-term monitoring data we quantified the separate and combined impacts of nutrient loading, temperature, salinity, and wind conditions on zooplankton, zoobenthos and fish inhabiting a brackish water ecosystem in the Gulf of Riga. Changes in zoobenthos communities and herring stock were largely explained by climate variables. Zooplankton species were related to both eutrophication and climate variables, and models combining all environmental variables explained additional variation in zooplankton data compared to the separate models of climate and eutrophication. This suggests that zoobenthos communities and herring stock are largely driven by weather conditions, whereas the combined effect of weather and nutrient loads are likely the cause for dynamic zooplankton communities in the Gulf of Riga.  相似文献   

Long-term bottom water warming in the north Ross Sea     

Hirokazu Ozaki  Hajime Obata  Mikio Naganobu  Toshitaka Gamo 《Journal of Oceanography》2009,65(2):235-244

We measured potential temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen profiles from the surface to the bottom at two locations in the north Ross Sea (65.2°S, 174.2°E and 67.2°S, 172.7°W) in December 2004. Comparison of our data with previous results from the same region reveals an increase in potential temperature and decreases in salinity and dissolved oxygen concentration in the bottom layer (deeper than 3000 m) over the past four decades. The changes were significantly different from the analytical precisions. Detailed investigation of the temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and σ ₃ value distributions and the bottom water flow in the north Ross Sea suggests a long-term change in water mass mixing balance. That is to say, it is speculated that the influence of cool, saline, high-oxygen bottom water (high-salinity Ross Sea Bottom Water) formed in the southwestern Ross Sea has possibly been decreased, while the influences of relatively warmer and fresher bottom water (low-salinity Ross Sea Bottom Water) and the Adélie Land Bottom Water coming from the Australia-Antarctic Basin have increased. The possible impact of global warming on ocean circulation needs much more investigation.  相似文献   

Possibility of recent changes in vertical distribution and size composition of chlorophyll-a in the western North Pacific region     

Hiroshi Ishida  Yutaka W. Watanabe  Joji Ishizaka  Toshiya Nakano  Naoki Nagai  Yuji Watanabe  Akifumi Shimamoto  Nobuhiro Maeda  Michimasa Magi 《Journal of Oceanography》2009,65(2):179-186

Our analysis of the last three decades of retrospective data of vertical distributions and size composition of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) over the western North Pacific has revealed significant changes of three indices related to Chl-a during summer season, as follows: (1) decreasing linear trend of the proportion of Chl-a in surface layer to that of the whole water column by 0.4 and 2.3% year⁻¹ in the subtropical area along 137°E (STA₁₃₇) during 1972 to 1997 and in the Kuroshio Extension area along 175°E (KEA₁₇₅) during 1990 to 2001; (2) increasing linear trend of the depth of subsurface Chl-a maximum (DCM) by 0.4 and 2.6 m year⁻¹ in STA₁₃₇ and KEA₁₇₅; and (3) decreasing linear trend of larger-size Chl-a (>3 μm) by 0.1 and 2.5% year⁻¹ in STA₁₃₇ and KEA₁₇₅, respectively. Water density (σ _θ ) at 75 m depth had also decreased by 0.006 and 0.05 year⁻¹ in STA₁₃₇ and KEA₁₇₅, respectively. The ratio of biogenic opal to biogenic CaCO₃ in the sinking flux decreased by 0.015 year⁻¹ in the subtropical region from 1997 to 2005. These findings may indicate that the subsurface chlorophyll maximum is deepening and larger phytoplankton such as diatoms has been decreasing during the past decade, associated with the decreasing density of surface water caused by warming in the western North Pacific, especially in the summer.  相似文献