改进的最优窗宽理论对年径流量的插值预测研究——以黄河利津等站为例          下载免费PDF全文

匡晓为  朱伟军  洪梅  白成祖 《大气科学学报》2018,41(2):258-266

针对小样本数据造成年径流量预测效果不理想的情况,以及非对称和非正态资料的处理问题,引入信息扩散和模糊映射思想,同时运用遗传算法改进最优窗宽理论,建立了新的扩散插值模型。该模型通过对零散数据点的信息进行模糊扩散,进而实现对有限数据点信息向其邻近区域点的概率插值。选取黄河利津站为例,根据其近70 a(1942—2011年)径流量实测数据,进行了缺损数据的插值和预测试验,同时与正态扩散插值模型进行对比分析,结果表明:1)预测值能较好地模拟实际径流序列的波形变化,对丰水年(如2007年)和枯水年(如2009年)的预报都比较准确;2)中长期预报(10a)平均相对误差仅为11.59%,相较传统方法有较大的改进;3)以黄河流域2个站点(花园口和兰州)和长江流域的3个站点(朱沱、宜昌和大通)年径流量预测试验以及海温资料的插值试验作为补充,验证了该算法的有效性和普适性。该模型可为实际水文数据资料的客观分析和中长期预报提供参考。  相似文献   

海岸破碎带植物消浪数值模拟研究     

刘达  黄本胜  邱静  谭超 《海洋工程》2016,34(2):16-23

沿海防浪林能形成柔性的植物消浪体系,可以有效降低风暴潮灾害。由于防浪林消浪效果受波浪、近岸水深及植物等多重因素的影响,消浪机理较为复杂,以往的系统研究成果较少。本文以立面二维自由面紊流模型为工具,建立了基于植物冠层特征的多孔介质模型,精细地模拟了破碎波对植物带的冲击,并与物理模型试验结果进行了对比验证,计算分析了植物带宽度、植物密度、滩地水深等因素对消浪效果的影响。  相似文献   

Ontogenetic Shifts in Resource Use and Shoaling Tendency Related to Body Size in Red Sea Goatfish (Parupeneus forsskali, Mullidae)     

Franz  Uiblein 《Marine Ecology》1991,12(2):153-161

Abstract. Red Sea goatfish show marked behavioral differences related to body size in food searching, substrate use, and shoaling tendency. While smaller fish mainly use their barbels to search for food hidden in the upper sediment layers or in crevices of corals, the largest fish frequently burrow with their mouths in deeper layers of the sediment. The conspecific shoaling tendency decreases with increasing size. Only smaller-sized fish are found in mixed-species shoals. The data are discussed with regard to the relations between ontogenetic changes in body size, resource utilization, and socialization patterns.  相似文献   

Scour below pipelines and around vertical piles in random waves     

Dag Myrhaug  Hvard Rue 《Coastal Engineering》2003,48(4):227-242

An approach by which the scour depth and scour width below a fixed pipeline and scour depth around a circular vertical pile in random waves can be derived is presented. Here, the scour depth formulas by Sumer and Fredsøe [ASCE J. Waterw., Port, Coastal Ocean Eng. 116 (1990) 307] for pipelines and Sumer et al. [ASCE J. Waterw., Port, Coastal Ocean Eng. 114 (1992) 599] for vertical piles as well as the scour width formula by Sumer and Fredsøe [The Mechanics of Scour in the Marine Environment, World Scientific, Singapore, 2002] for pipelines combined with describing the waves as a stationary Gaussian narrow-band random process are used to derive the cumulative distribution functions of the scour depths and width. Comparisons are made between the present approach and random wave scour data. Tentative approaches to related random wave scour cases are also suggested.  相似文献   

Singularity and Breaking of the Third Order Stokes Waves     

孙孚  高山  王伟  钱成春 《中国海洋工程》2003,17(1)

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Time-based signal characteristics as predictors of fish size and species for a side-looking hydroacoustic application in a river   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

Burwen  Debby L; Fleischman  Steven J; Miller  James D; Jensen  Mark E 《ICES Journal of Marine Science》2003,60(3):662-668

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Investigation on the Oscillating Buoy Wave Power Device   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

SU  Yongling 《中国海洋工程》2002,16(1):141-149

An oscillating buoy wave power device (OD) is a device extracting wave power by an oscillating buoy. Being excited by waves, the buoy heaves up and down to convert wave energy into electricity by means of a mechanical or hydraulic device. Compared with an Oscillating Water Column (OWC) wave power device, the OD has the same capture vvidth ratio as the OWC does, but much higher secondary conversion efficiency. Moreover, the chamber of the OWC, which is the most expensive and difficult part to be built, is not necessary for the OD, so it is easier to construct an OD. In this paper, a nu-merical calculation is conducted for an optimal design of the OD firstly, then a model of the device is built and, a model test is carried out in a wave tank. The results show that the total efficiency of the OD is much higher than that of the OWC and that the OD is a promising wave power device.  相似文献   

Coding random self-similar river networks and calculating geometric distances: 2. Application to runoff simulations / Codage de réseaux hydrographiques auto-similaires aléatoires et calcul de distances géométriques: 2. Application à la simulation de l'écoulement     

《水文科学杂志》2013,58(5)

Abstract

A preliminary method for coding random self-similar river networks and the corresponding distance calculations are proposed in a companion paper. The coding method is applied to generate random self-similar river networks, and the corresponding algorithm for calculating the geometric distances of the links is employed to determine the width function of the river networks, and thus evaluates the adaptability of the process. The width function-based geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph (WF-GIUH) model is then applied to estimate the runoff of the Po-bridge watershed in northern Taiwan. The results imply that the separately random self-similar generating algorithm can be used to simulate river networks during the rainfall–runoff process. It can also help analyse the variations of the river network when rainfall locations change and study the influence on hydrological responses (IUH) when the shape of river network changes.  相似文献   

How well can the subsurface storage–discharge relation be interpreted and predicted using the geometric factors in headwater areas?          下载免费PDF全文

Jintao Liu  Xiaole Han  Xi Chen  Henry Lin  Aihua Wang 《水文研究》2016,30(25):4826-4840

Headwater storage–discharge (S–Q) remains one of the least understood processes, and there is renewed interest in the S–Q relation. How well can the S–Q relation be interpreted mechanistically using geometric factors? In this paper, the hillslope storage Boussinesq and hillslope storage kinematic wave equation were adopted to guide the theoretical derivations. Analytical solutions were derived based on the hsKW equation for nine idealized hillslope aquifers, which were subdivided into two groups, i.e. hillslope aquifers with exponential hillslope width function (C1) and hillslope aquifers with Gaussian hillslope width function (C2). We found that analytical expressions of the S–Q relation can be derived for C1 hillslope aquifers. For more compound hillslope aquifers, i.e. C2, no explicit S–Q relation can be obtained. The whole subsurface recession after a rainstorm is simulated by applying the initial saturation condition. We found that the simulated S–Q processes can be characterized by a two‐phase recession, i.e. quick and slow recession. The time (t_b) at the dividing point of the quick and slow recessions depends on the geometric factors, such as the plan and profile curvature. In the quick recession for C1, many of the S–Q curves can be described as linear or quasi‐linear functions, which indicate that linear reservoir models can be applied approximately for recession simulations. However, during the slow recession phase of C1 and during the whole recession of C2, the S–Q relations are highly non‐linear. Finally, we compared the hillslope storage kinematic wave and hillslope storage Boussinesq models for simulating subsurface water recession after a rainstorm event in a real‐world headwater catchment (G5) in China. Through comparison of the recession slope curves, we found that the simulated results of the models employing the Gaussian hillslope width function match the observed hydrograph. The results indicated that appropriate organization of the hillslope geometric factors enhances our ability to make S–Q predictions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

阿勒泰中部地区树轮宽度年表特征及其对气候的响应     

海丽其姑.阿不来海提  袁玉江  喻树龙  张同文  陈峰  尚华明  张瑞波 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2015,9(3):36-43

利用采自阿勒泰中部地区6个低海拔(1354-1970m)样点的西伯利亚落叶松(Larix sibirica Ledeb.) 或西伯利亚云杉(Picea obovata Ledeb)样本,建立各采点的树轮宽度指数年表。分析标准化树轮宽度年表的特征参数及对气候的响应表明：1.拜克托别标准化树轮宽度年表包含的气候信息最多,其次是大东沟前标准化树轮宽度年表。2.6个标准化树轮宽度年表与阿勒泰中部地区自建站以来的气象数据进行相关普查发现拜克托别及大东沟前标准化树轮宽度年表与6-8月降水量、4-8月降水日数呈显著正相关,石人东年表与7-8月平均最高气温呈显著负相关。这些相关具有明确的树木生理学意义。  相似文献