新疆地震预报研究     

朱令人 《内陆地震》1993,7(2):90-105

新疆的地震预报是1970年开始的。二十多年来在“边观测、边研究、边预报”、“多路探索、多兵种联合作战”、“走综合预报之路”的方针指导下取得了长足的进展。建设了43个地震台站,投入189套仪器,建成了遍布全疆的地震无线通讯网,开展了历史地震调查和地震烈度区划工作,建立健全了地震会商预报制度,进行了多方面的地震预报研究。实际地震预报统计分析表明,扣除自然发震概率之后,趋势预报的成功率约0.3,短临预报的成功率约0.1。在前兆台网控制范围内取得了一些震例,说明地震确实是有前兆的,但又是非常复杂的。地震预报作为科学难题还有漫长的路要走。作者简要地讨论了地震观测的间接性和地震异常的离散性、难以区别的地震异常和地壳变动异常、建立在复杂现象基础上的地震前兆以及地震的混沌性对地震预报的影响等科学问题。  相似文献   

“地震预警”法律概念的构成及延展     

李一行  陈华静 《中国地震》2021,37(3):641-648

“地震预警”法律概念是讨论和规范地震预警相关行为的基础,也是地震预警立法首先要明确的问题。目前,国家层面尚未制定专门的地震预警法律法规,地方已经颁布的管理办法中对“地震预警”法律概念的规定也不完全一致。随着地震预警立法进程的不断推进,“地震预警”法律概念的确定和统一愈发重要和迫切。“地震预警”法律概念应涵括其技术属性和社会属性,秉持完整规范、避免歧义的原则,将时间、空间、机理和影响等要素排列组合而成。为深入理解这一概念,本文还讨论了发布主体、预警客体、技术服务、法律责任等地震预警法律规范的基本内容。  相似文献   

多硅白云母b₀值对澜沧群中压和高压变质的反映   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

宋仁奎  应育浦 《地质科学》1997,32(1):56-64

多硅白云母b₀值作为相对地质压力计的理论和方法,已受到各国地质学家的普遍重视。本文以澜沧群多硅白云母作为研究对象,提出运用多硅白云母b₀值区分不同压力变质的方法。研究结果表明澜沧群经历了中压和高压变质作用,两期变质的多硅白云母b₀值分别为9.027Å和9.047Å。  相似文献   

地震前兆含义,科学问题与研究途径的研讨   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

张肇诚  王贵宣 《地震》1997,17(4):429-439

地震前兆的研究已经取得了很大的进展,地震前兆的复杂性引起了广泛的关注,对地震预报、有关科学问题和探索途径的研究现状及其前景有各种评价。文章认为由于一些科学问题没有解决,尽管对中缅边境１９９５年７月连７．３级地震作出了成功预报,经验性预报有一定的局限性,文中讨论了广义地震前兆和狭义地震前兆,广义地震前兆包含二类前兆：场兆和源兆;而狭义前兆仅指后者。大陆震例前兆的系统研究证实了广义地震前兆的存在,然而  相似文献   

Channel overflows of the Pōhue Bay flow,Mauna Loa,Hawai'i: examples of the contrast between surface and interior lava     

Zinzuni Jurado-Chichay  Scott K. Rowland 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1995,57(2):117-126

A number of overflows from a large lava channel and tube system on the southwest rift zone of Mauna Loa were studied. Initial overflows were very low viscosity gas-rich phoehoe evidenced by flow-unit aspect ratios and vesicle sizes and contents. Calculated volumetric flow-rates in the channel range between 80 and 890 m³/s, and those of the overflows between 35 and 110 m³/s. After traveling tens to hundreds of meters the tops of these sheet-like overflows were disrupted into a surface composed of clinker and phoehoe fragments. After these 'a' overflows came to rest, lava from the interiors was able to break out on to the surface as phoehoe. The surface structure of a lava flow records the interaction between the differential shear rate (usually correlated with the volumetric flow-rate) and viscosity-induced resistance to flow. However, the interior of a flow, being better insulated, may react differently or record a later set of emplacement conditions. Clefts of toothpaste lava occurring within fields of clinker on proximal-type 'a' flows also record different shear rates during different times of flow emplacement. The interplay between viscosity and shear rate determines the final morphological lava type, and although no specific portion of lava ever makes a transition from 'a' back to phoehoe, parts of a flow can appear to do so.  相似文献   

Diagenesis of vascular plant organic matter components during burial in lake sediments   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  

Philip A. Meyers  Mary J. Leenheer  Richard A. Bourbonniere 《Aquatic Geochemistry》1995,1(1):35-52

Diagenetic changes are difficult to distinguish from variations in sources of organic matter to sediments. Organic geochemical comparisons of samples of wood, bark, and needles from a white spruce (Picea glauca) living today and one buried for 10,000 years in lake sediments have been used to identify the effects of diagenesis on vascular plant matter. Important biogeochemical changes are evident in the aged spruce components, even though the cellular structures of the samples are well preserved. Concentrations of total fatty acids dramatically diminish; unsaturated and shorter chainlength components are preferentially lost from the molecular distributions. Concentrations of total alcohols are similar in the modern and 10,000-year-old wood and bark but markedly lowered in the aged needles. Hydrocarbon concentrations and distributions show little diagenetic change in the 10,000-year-old plant materials. Cellulose components in the wood decrease relative to lignin components, although both types of materials remain in high concentration in comparison to other organic components. Aromatization of abietic acid proceeds more rapidly in buried spruce wood than in bark; retene is the dominant polyaromatic hydrocarbon in the aged wood. In contrast to the variety of changes evident in molecular compositions, neither ¹³C values nor C/N ratios differ significantly in the bulk organic matter of modern and aged spruce components.  相似文献   

Geochronology and geochemistry of eclogites from the Mariánské Lázně Complex,Czech Republic: Implications for Variscan orogenesis     

Brian L. Beard  L. Gordon Medaris Jr  Clark M. Johnson  Emil Jelínek  J. Tonika  Lee R. Riciputi 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1995,84(3):552-567

The Mariánské Lázn complex (MLC) is located in the Bohemian Massif along the north-western margin of the Teplá-Barrandian microplate and consists of metagabbro, amphibolite and eclogite, with subordinate amounts of serpentinite, felsic gneiss and calcsilicate rocks. The MLC is interpreted as a metaophiolite complex that marks the suture zone between the Saxothuringian rocks to the north-west and the Teplá-Barrandian microplate to the south-east. Sm-Nd geochronology of garnet-omphacite pairs from two eclogite samples yields ages of 377±7, and 367±4 Ma. Samples of eclogite and amphibolite do not define a whole rock Sm-Nd isochron, even though there is a large range in Sm/Nd ratio, implying that the suite of samples may not be cogenetic. Eclogites do not have correlated _Nd values and initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios. Five of the eight eclogite samples have high _Nd values (+10.2 to +7.1) consistent with derivation from a MORB-like source, but variable ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.7033 to 0.7059) which probably reflect hydrothermal seawater alteration. Three other eclogite samples have lower _Nd values (+ 5.4 to –0.8) and widely variable ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios (0.7033 to 0.7096). Such low _Nd values are inconsistent with derivation from a MORB, source and may reflect a subduction or oceanic island basalt component in their source. The MLC is an important petrotectonic element in the Bohemian Massif, providing evidence for Cambro-Ordovician formation of oceanic crust and interaction with seawater, Late Devonian (Frasnian-Famennian) high- and medium-pressure metamorphism related to closure of a Saxothuringian ocean basin, Early Carboniferous (Viséan) thrusting of the Teplá terrane over Saxothuringian rocks and Late Viséan extension.  相似文献   

Comparison between a radiative wind model for be stars and high angular resolution data from the GI2T interferometer     

Ph. Stee 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1995,224(1-2):561-562

I present theoretical line profiles and intensity maps from an axi-symmetric radiative wind model from a rapidly rotating Be star. The introduction of a viscosity parameter in the latitude-dependent hydrodynamic code enables us to consider the effects of the viscous force in the azimuthal component of momentum equations (Araújo et al. 1994). Both velocity field and density law derived from the hydrodynamic equations have been used for solving the statistical equilibrium equations. By adopting the Sobolev approximation, we could easily obtain a good estimate of both electronic density and hydrogen level populations throughout the envelope. The numerical calculation was performed for parameters characterisic of the Be star Cassiopeiae.  相似文献   

用气象站地温资料计算多年平均土壤热流的初步结果   总被引：11，自引：3，他引：8  

董文杰  汤懋苍 《高原气象》1992,11(2):115-125

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Using numerical modelling to evaluate tsunami hazard near the Kuril Island     

L. B. Chubarov  Yu. I. Shokin  K. V. Simonov 《Natural Hazards》1992,5(3):293-318

A sequence of computer experiments is used to study questions concerning the tsunami problem as a quantitative estimate of tsunami danger, detailed geographical tsunami classification, determination of the parameters of critical tsunami waves, and the conditions of their development. We call a wave critical, if its impact on the coast is most hazardous.Using the Middle Kuril Island as an example, we present the results of a computer experiment which includes determining the wavefields on the shelf and estimating the effects connected with the deep-water Bussol and Diana Straits.Numerical simulation of tsunami waves of different sources permits the assessment of the extent of tsunami danger in different areas of the coastal zone of Simushir Island, depending on the location of the focus zone and their geometry.The major singularities of the wavefield arise in the zones of the deep-water straits. The distribution of the amplification factors is determined by both the global parameters of the wavefields and the local properties of individual harbours. The results obtained for a particular harbour in the northern part of Simushir Island, formed the basis for the quantitative estimate of tsunami danger for this area.  相似文献