1960～2010年漓江流域降水变化特征研究   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

段文军  王金叶  张立杰  李海防  黄华乾 《水文》2014,34(5):88-93

利用漓江流域及周边地区25个降水观测点50年的监测数据,通过Mapgis 6.7计算流域年降水量和月降水量。在此基础上,采用变差系数法、5年滑动平均法和Mann-Kendall检验法,分析漓江流域1960~2010年降水变化规律。结果表明:(1)1960~2010年,漓江流域降水年际动态为波动增加,年降水量每10a增加23.1mm;其中1970~2010年间,漓江流域年降水变化表现为波动减少,年降水量每10a减少14.6mm;但增减趋势都没有通过显著性检验;(2)漓江流域年内降水具有典型的雨季和旱季交替特征,雨季降水占全年降水的76.26%;(3)漓江流域月降水量随时间变化具有规律性的增减,其中1月和6月降水量随着时间推移增加,4月降水量随着时间推移而减少,1、4、6月的这种增减趋势通过99%的显著性检验;(4)漓江流域降水年内变化幅度比年际明显,年降水量变差系数小于0.18,月降水量变差系数大于0.61。  相似文献   

地理国情与基础地理信息数据同步更新外业调绘系统的构建     

何鑫  应国伟  高倩影  李亮 《测绘通报》2017,(9):116-119

利用全新的外业数据调绘理念,在地图数据缓存切片技术、GPS定位技术及手持移动终端等技术设备基础上构建了地理国情与基础地理信息数据同步更新外业调绘系统,实现野外作业时,同一地物要素只需补测一次即可完成地理国情与基础地理信息数据的外业调绘工作,避免了重复外业采集生产,有利于降低地理国情与基础地理信息数据的更新成本。  相似文献   

阿尔金断裂不同时间尺度下的滑移速率及构造意义   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

熊熊  王继业  滕吉文 《地质科技情报》2006,25(3):21-28

阿尔金断裂是亚洲大陆最大、也是最活跃的走滑断层之一.一般认为,印度板块与欧亚大陆间的汇聚通过地壳增厚与沿阿尔金等主要深大断裂的侧向滑移2种机制被青藏高原造山带的地壳形变所吸收.由于这2种机制所预测的阿尔金断裂的左旋滑移速率相差甚巨,因此,阿尔金断裂的滑移速率成为判断2种机制相对重要性的重要依据.采用地质学、大地测量学及数值模拟方法对阿尔金断裂滑移的研究结果表明,阿尔金断裂的滑移速率呈长期减小的趋势;青藏高原经历了由块体的侧向挤出向地壳增厚的转变过程;阿尔金断裂在不同地质时间尺度下的滑移速率尚需精确确定;单纯将阿尔金断裂滑移速率的大小作为判断青藏高原构造模式的依据也是应该受到质疑的.  相似文献   

Evaluation of GEV model for frequency analysis of annual maximum water levels in the coast of United States   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Wenrui Huang  Sudong Xu  Soro Nnaji 《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(11-12):1132-1147

The three-parameter generalized-extreme-value (GEV) model has been recommended by FEMA [FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency of the United States), 2004. Final Draft Guidelines for Coastal Flood Hazard Analysis and Mapping for the Pacific Coast of the United States. http://www.fema.gov/library/viewRecord.do?id=2188] for frequency analysis of annual maximum water levels in the Pacific coast of the United States. Yet, the GEV model's performance in other coastal areas still needs to be evaluated. The GEV model combines three types of probability distributions into one expression. The probability distributions can be defined by one of the three parameters of the GEV model. In this study, annual maximum water levels at nine water-level stations with long history data (more than 70 years) were chosen for analysis in five coastal areas: Pacific, Northeast Atlantic, East Atlantic, Southeast Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico coasts. Parameters of the GEV model are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method. Results indicate that probability distributions are characterized by the GEV Type III model at stations in the Pacific, Northeast, and East Atlantic coastal areas, while they are described by GEV Type II in stations of the Southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coastal areas. GEV model predictions of extreme water levels show good correlation to observations with correlation coefficients of 0.89 to 0.99. For predictions of 10% annual maximum water levels, the GEV model predictions are very good with errors equal to or less than 5% for all nine stations. Comparison of observations and GEV model estimations of annual maximum water levels for the longest recorded return periods, close to 100 years, revealed errors equal to or less than 5% for stations in the Pacific and Northeast Atlantic coastal areas. However, the errors range from 10% to 28% for other stations located in the East and Southeast Atlantic coasts as well as Gulf of Mexico coastal areas. Findings from this study suggest caution regarding the magnitudes of errors in applying the GEV model to the East and Southeast Atlantic coasts and Gulf of Mexico coast for estimating 100-year annual maximum water levels for coastal flood analysis.  相似文献   

地下水超采区水位长趋势动态分析   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

张素欣  刘耀炜  陆明勇  张子广 《地震》2007,27(4):51-58

地下水多年过量开采水位持续下降, 不仅在观测资料中叠加了大量的疑似地震前兆, 严重地压低了来自孕震体的信息, 而且使正常的地震长、 中、 短周期变化背景扭曲, 前兆异常更加难辨。 本研究采用“线性拟合去趋势方法”对水位多年观测资料进行了分析。 分析结果表明, 线性拟合去趋势后水位10年左右的准周期结构清楚, 能有效地排除地下水超采的影响, 突出正常趋势变化背景, 放大潮汐信息量, 便于识别地震前兆。  相似文献