New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data     

G. Grünthal  R. Wahlström 《Natural Hazards》2006,38(1-2):159-176

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.  相似文献   

The effects of hazard zone information on judgements about earthquake damage     

Michael Crozier  John McClure  Jessica Vercoe  Marc Wilson 《Area》2006,38(2):143-152

This study investigates the extent to which people's views on the causes and preventability of earthquake damage might be influenced by their degree of exposure to hazard as well as what information they have been given about the hazard. The results show that the provision of hazard zoning information influences judgements on preventability and causes of damage, but this effect depends on the degree of hazard faced by residents. In low hazard zones, information leads to the view that causes are manageable, whereas in high hazard zones information may induce a degree of fatalism. The use of public information in risk management needs to take into account the degree of risk faced by the recipients.  相似文献   

Basin-related effects on ground motion for earthquake scenarios in the Lower Rhine Embayment   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Michael Ewald  Heiner Igel  Klaus-Günter Hinzen  Frank Scherbaum 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,166(1):197-212

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Modification of streaming potential by precipitation of calcite in a sand–water system: laboratory measurements in the pH range from 4 to 12     

Xavier Guichet  Laurence Jouniaux  Nicole Catel 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,166(1):445-460

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Shear wave splitting changes associated with the 2001 volcanic eruption on Mt Etna     

Francesca Bianco  Luciano Scarf&#;  Edoardo Del Pezzo  Domenico Patanè 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,167(2):959-967

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Lithospheric structure of an active backarc basin: the Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Antony Harrison  Robert S. White 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,167(2):968-990

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Pre-collapse identification of sinkholes in unconsolidated media at Dead Sea area by 'nanoseismic monitoring' (graphical jackknife location of weak sources by few, low-SNR records)   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Gilles Hillel Wust-Bloch  Manfred Joswig 《Geophysical Journal International》2006,167(3):1220-1232

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GIS-based flood hazard mapping at different administrative scales: A case study in Gangetic West Bengal, India   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Joy Sanyal  X.X. Lu 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2006,27(2):207-220

This paper addresses the need for an efficient and cost-effective methodology for preparing flood hazard maps in data poor countries, particularly those under a monsoon regime where floods pose a recurrent danger. Taking Gangetic West Bengal, India, as an example and using available historical data from government agencies, the study compiled a regional map indicating hazard prone subregional areas for further detailed investigation, thereby isolating actual high risk localities. Using a GIS (Geographical Information System), a composite hazard index was devised incorporating variables of flood frequency, population density, transportation networks, access to potable water, and availability of high ground and maximum risk zones were mapped accordingly. A digital elevation model derived from high resolution imagery available in the public domain was used to calculate elevated areas suitable for temporary shelter during a flood. Selecting administrative units of analysis at the lowest possible scales – rural development blocks (regional) and revenue villages (subregional) – also ensures that hazard mapping is prepared in line with the existing rural planning and administrative authorities responsible for remedial intervention.  相似文献   

Geodynamic significance of granitoid magmatism in the southeast Anatolian orogen: geochemical and geochronogical evidence from Göksun–Afşin (Kahramanmaraş, Turkey) region     

Osman Parlak 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2006,95(4):609-627

In southeast Anatolia, there are number of tectonomagmatic units in the Kahramanmaraş–Malatya–Elazığ region that are important in understanding the geological evolution of the southeast Anatolian orogenic belt during the Late Cretaceous. These are (a) metamorphic massifs, (b) ophiolites, (c) ophiolite-related metamorphics and (d) granitoids. The granitoids (i.e. Göksun–Afşin in Kahramanmaraş, Doğanşehir in Malatya and Baskil in Elazığ) intrude all the former units in a NE–SW trending direction. The granitoid in Göksun–Afşin (Kahramanmaraş) region is mainly composed of granodioritic and granitic in composition. The granodiorite contains a number of amphibole-bearing mafic microgranular enclaves of different sizes, whereas the granite is intruded by numerous aplitic dikes. The granitoid rocks have typical calcalkaline geochemical features. The REE- and Ocean ridge granite-normalized multi-element patterns and tectonomagmatic discrimination diagrams, as well as biotite geochemistry suggest that the granitoids were formed in a volcanic arc setting. The K–Ar geochronology of the granitoid rocks yielded ages ranging from 85.76±3.17 to 77.49±1.91 Ma. The field, geochemical and geochronological data suggest the following Late Cretaceous tectonomagmatic scenario for southeast Anatolia. The ophiolites were formed in a suprasubduction zone tectonic setting whereas the ophiolite-related metamorphic rocks formed either during the initiation of intraoceanic subduction or late-thrusting (∼90 Ma). These units were then overthrust by the Malatya–Keban platform during the progressive elimination of the southern Neotethys. Thrusting of the Malatya–Keban platform over the ophiolites and related metamorphic rocks was followed by the intrusion of the granitoids (88–85 Ma) along the Tauride active continental margin in the southern Neotethys.  相似文献   

滑坡稳定性分析与安全系数取值研究   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

徐青  陈士军  陈胜宏 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2006,17(3):58-62

在地质灾害中,滑坡灾害分布最广、发生频率最高、危害最大,是我国地质灾害防治的主要对象。滑坡研究的主要任务之一是稳定性分析。论文针对三板溪水电站进水口滑坡和水布垭水电站大岩淌滑坡,分别采用刚体极限平衡法、块体单元法、有限单元法对稳定安全系数和条间推力分布曲线进行分析和比较,研究各种方法的差异和计算精度,以及各种方法稳定安全系数的取值标准,希望为水利水电工程边坡设计规范有关有限单元法、块体单元法条目的编写和相应的允许安全系数取值标准的制定提供一定的参考。研究结果表明:①块体单元法计算的安全系数与刚体极限平衡法计算的安全系数可以采用相同的取值标准,而有限单元法计算的安全系数取值标准可适当降低;②块体单元法计算的条间水平推力、条间剪切力与刚体极限平衡法(尤其是Sarma法)计算的条间水平推力、条间剪切力非常相近,有限单元法计算的条间水平推力、条间剪切力较小;③分析方法、力学模型与参数取值应与安全系数取值标准相匹配。  相似文献