Tolerance mechanisms in North American deserts: Biological and societal approaches to climate change     

Z.R. Stahlschmidt  D.F. DeNardoJ.N. Holland  B.P. KotlerM. Kruse-Peeples 《Journal of Arid Environments》2011,75(8):681-687

The deserts of North America and elsewhere may serve as ‘ecological petri dishes’ that can be used to study the general effects of global climate change (GCC) as these regions are expected to become warmer and drier at faster rates than other terrestrial regions. We highlight the biological and societal responses to such shifts in environmental parameters predicted to vary with GCC, and we introduce the term tolerance mechanism (TM) to inclusively describe the means by which organisms of natural systems or human society cope with such environmental challenges. We review the historical relationships between biological TMs and water availability, temperature, and energy resources, as well as describe societal TMs. We create a simplified conceptual model to predict the effectiveness of TMs in the context of GCC and conclude that, although currently functional, some desert TMs (e.g., biological adaptations by long-lived taxa) may be outpaced by GCC. We finish with suggested future TM-related research.  相似文献   

Two measures of progress in adapting to climate change     

Matthew E. Kahn   《Global Environmental Change》2003,13(4):307-312

Adaptation will play a key role in determining the economic and social costs of climate change. One important measure of adaptation is reductions in deaths caused by climate events. This paper uses two new data sets to test the hypothesis that, in recent years, climate events cause less deaths than in the past. Using data on deaths caused by natural disasters and data on skin cancer death rates in warmer and cooler US states, this paper reports evidence in favor of the adaptation progress hypothesis.  相似文献   

Limits to adaptation to interacting global change risks among smallholder rice farmers in Northwest Costa Rica     

《Global Environmental Change》2015

In this paper, we discuss the theoretical relationships among interacting global change risks, valued livelihood goals, and adaptation limits. We build from research on the impacts of multiple and interacting global change risks in lesser-developed countries and seek to understand household adaptation limits in agrarian communities. We ask: What are valued livelihood goals among smallholder farmers in Northwest Costa Rica? How do socio-economic determinants of adaptive capacities determine their ability to meet these goals in the face of the impacts of interacting global change risks? Our data were based on focus groups, interviews, survey responses from 94 smallholder farmers, government statistics, and published literature. We analyzed our data using qualitative content analysis and quantitative logistic regression models. Our analysis showed that farmers perceived rice production as an identity, and that they were being forced to consider limits to their abilities to adapt to maintain that identity. We found that farm size, cattle ownership, years spent farming, and household income variety were determinants of their abilities to remain in rice production while maintaining sufficient levels of livelihood security. We also showed that for those households most vulnerable to water scarcity, their ability to successfully adapt to meet valued livelihood goals is diminished because adaptation to water scarcity increases vulnerability to decreased rice-market access. In this way, they become trapped by the inability to reduce their vulnerability to risks of the interaction between global changes and therefore abandon valued identities and livelihoods.  相似文献   

A socio-psychological model for analyzing climate change adaptation: A case study of Sri Lankan paddy farmers     

《Global Environmental Change》2015

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Integrating top–down and bottom–up approaches to design global change adaptation at the river basin scale     

《Global Environmental Change》2015

The high uncertainty associated with the effect of global change on water resource systems calls for a better combination of conventional top–down and bottom–up approaches, in order to design robust adaptation plans at the local scale. The methodological framework presented in this article introduces “bottom–up meets top–down” integrated approach to support the selection of adaptation measures at the river basin level by comprehensively integrating the goals of economic efficiency, social acceptability, environmental sustainability and adaptation robustness. The top–down approach relies on the use of a chain of models to assess the impact of global change on water resources and its adaptive management over a range of climate projections. Future demand scenarios and locally prioritised adaptation measures are identified following a bottom–up approach through a participatory process with the relevant stakeholders and experts. The optimal combinations of adaptation measures are then selected using a hydro-economic model at basin scale for each climate projection. The resulting adaptation portfolios are, finally, climate checked to define a robust least-regret programme of measures based on trade-offs between adaptation costs and the reliability of supply for agricultural demands.This innovative approach has been applied to a Mediterranean basin, the Orb river basin (France). Mid-term climate projections, downscaled from 9 General Climate Models, are used to assess the uncertainty associated with climate projections. Demand evolution scenarios are developed to project agricultural and urban water demands on the 2030 time horizon. The results derived from the integration of the bottom–up and top–down approaches illustrate the sensitivity of the adaptation strategies to the climate projections, and provide an assessment of the trade-offs between the performance of the water resource system and the cost of the adaptation plan to inform local decision-making. The article contributes new methodological elements for the development of an integrated framework for decision-making under climate change uncertainty, advocating an interdisciplinary approach that bridges the gap between bottom–up and top–down approaches.  相似文献   

关于气候变化与荒漠化关系的新认知     

吴建国  翟盘茂 《气候变化研究进展》2020,16(1):28-36

IPCC于2019年8月7日通过了《气候变化与土地特别报告》决策者摘要,报告第3章评估了气候变化与荒漠化的关系,取得了一些新认识,包括全球旱地(dryland)和荒漠化的范围、荒漠化过程与影响因素、荒漠化的检测与归因、荒漠化对自然和社会经济系统的影响、荒漠化对气候变化的反馈、未来气候变化对荒漠化的影响与风险,应对荒漠化与适应和减缓气候变化的联系。在估计荒漠化变化、荒漠化变化检测与归因、荒漠化对自然和社会经济系统的影响、荒漠化对气候变化的反馈、应对荒漠化与适应和减缓气候变化联系方面还存在不足。这些评估结果对我国认识旱地和荒漠化范围的变化、影响荒漠化因素、荒漠化过程、荒漠化变化检测与归因,荒漠化对自然和社会经济系统的影响、荒漠化对气候变化的反馈、未来气候变化对荒漠化的影响与风险,以及防治荒漠化与适应和减缓气候变化方面等都有重要的启示。  相似文献   

Assessing community vulnerability: A study of the mountain pine beetle outbreak in British Columbia, Canada   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

John R. Parkins  Norah A. MacKendrick 《Global Environmental Change》2007,17(3-4):460-471

Arguing that community-based assessments of vulnerability to climate change are congruent with the scale at which policy action takes place, this paper presents an assessment of vulnerability conducted in forest-based communities surrounded by a catastrophic outbreak of forest disease. Our assessment includes measures of several dimensions of vulnerability, developed using an interdisciplinary and participatory research process. We find that for some communities vulnerability represents a high level of economic risk, while for others risk is exacerbated by institutional limitations. We also find that community perceptions of risk and bio-physical assessments differ widely for communities anticipating future outbreaks of disease.  相似文献   

Community clusters in wildlife and environmental management: using TEK and community involvement to improve co-management in an era of rapid environmental change     

Martha Dowsley 《Polar research》2009,28(1):43-59

Environmental change has stressed wildlife co-management systems in the Arctic because parameters are changing more rapidly than traditional scientific monitoring can accommodate. Co-management systems have also been criticized for not fully integrating harvesters into the local management of resources. These two problems can be approached through the use of spatially-defined human social units termed community clusters, which are based on the demographic or ecological units being managed. An examination of polar bear management in Nunavut Territory, Canada, shows that community clusters provide a forum to collect and analyse traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) over a geographic area that mirrors the management unit, providing detailed information of local conditions. This case study also provides examples of how instituting community clusters at a governance level provides harvesters with social space in which to develop their roles as managers, along the continuum from being powerless spectators to active, adaptive co-managers. Five steps for enhancing co-management systems through the inclusion of community clusters and their knowledge are: (1) the acceptance of TEK, science, the precautionary principle and the right of harvesters not to be constrained by overly-conservative management decisions; (2) data collection involving TEK and science, and a collaboration between the two; (3) institutionalization of community clusters for data collection; (4) institutionalization of community clusters in the management process; and (5) grass-roots initiatives to take advantage of the social space provided by the community cluster approach, in order to adapt the management to local conditions, and to effect policy changes at higher levels, so as to better meet local objectives.  相似文献   

Community collaboration and climate change research in the Canadian Arctic     

Tristan D. Pearce  James D. Ford  Gita J. Laidler  Barry Smit  Frank Duerden  Mishak Allarut  Mark Andrachuk  Steven Baryluk  rew Dialla  Pootoogoo Elee  Annie Goose  Theo Ikummaq  Eric Joamie  Fred Kataoyak  Eric Loring  Stephanie Meakin  Scott Nickels  Kip Shappa  Jamal Shirley  & Johanna Wandel 《Polar research》2009,28(1):10-27

Research on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation, particularly projects aiming to contribute to practical adaptation initiatives, requires active involvement and collaboration with community members and local, regional and national organizations that use this research for policy-making. Arctic communities are already experiencing and adapting to environmental and socio-cultural changes, and researchers have a practical and ethical responsibility to engage with communities that are the focus of the research. This paper draws on the experiences of researchers working with communities across the Canadian Arctic, together with the expertise of Inuit organizations, Northern research institutes and community partners, to outline key considerations for effectively engaging Arctic communities in collaborative research. These considerations include: initiating early and ongoing communication with communities, and regional and national contacts; involving communities in research design and development; facilitating opportunities for local employment; and disseminating research findings. Examples of each consideration are drawn from climate change research conducted with communities in the Canadian Arctic.  相似文献   

Factors affecting whether environmental migration is temporary or permanent: Evidence from Bangladesh     

Mohammad Abdul Munim Joarder  Paul W. Miller 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(6):1511-1524

This study examines whether environmental migrants in Bangladesh move permanently or temporarily. The analyses are based on data collected in 2010 and 2011, and cover four themes, namely migrant characteristics, environmental change related factors, conflict and adaptation strategies, and social networks. The estimates obtained from binary logit models show that most sets of variables have statistically significant impacts on the temporary migration versus permanent migration decision. Females are more inclined to migrate temporarily, a finding which is consistent with prior studies that argued that female migration is one temporary household survival strategy in the face of an environmental crisis. The probability of intending to move temporarily is significantly affected by the prior occupational experience: Migrants who were previously engaged in agriculture or fishing are more inclined to migrate permanently. Those households who reported that they had lost assets due to environmental hazards are shown to have a higher probability of becoming permanent migrants. In contrast, loss of livestock and crop failure are associated with a greater likelihood of temporary migration. The empirical results reveal the groups that can be targeted in destination regions in settlement policy, and equally the groups whose return home can be facilitated once any immediate danger has passed.  相似文献