淮河息县站流量概率预报模型研究   总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11  

钱名开徐时进  王善序王嘉涛 《水文》2004,24(2):23-25

应用美国天气局采用的由Roman Krzysztofowicz开发的贝叶斯统计理论建立概率水文预报理论框架，即以分布函数形式定量地描述水文预报不确定度，研究了淮河息县站流量概率预报模型。理论和经验表明，概率预报至少与确定性预报一样有价值，特别当预报不确定度较大时，概率预报比现行确定性预报具有更高的经济价值。  相似文献   

湖北省土壤侵蚀景观空间异质性及驱动因子分析     

张志  王少军 《中国地质灾害与防治学报》2004,15(4):49-53

地域分异是地球表层大小不等、内部具有一定相似性地段之间的相互分化以及由此产生的差异。为了研究不同区位土壤侵蚀问题，从土壤生态景观及系统论出发，运用地质学、地理学、景观生态学、环境学的理论和研究方法，研究湖北省土壤侵蚀景观空间格局及其驱动因子，使土壤侵蚀问题研究提高到一个新的水平。湖北省土壤侵蚀景观具有南北分带、东西分区，为一不对称的断块一环组合，土壤流呈现向长江、江汉盆地中心轴带辐聚、单流向特点。景观空间异质性形成的首要驱动因子是大地构造背景，以房县一襄樊一广济断裂带为界，南北两侧地壳物质组成和构造发展史存在较明显的差异，现代气候带、降雨量、温热程度及土地利用等差异，造成了湖北省区域土壤地理、土壤生态的分异，形成湖北省土壤生态带、区具有南北分带，东西分区的宏观格局；其次大兴安岭一武陵山深部构造陡变带两侧新构造运动强度差异、大别造山带构造强烈隆升，导致土壤侵蚀强度的西强东弱、南北强中间弱的态势；成土母岩差异性决定了土壤可蚀性的多变；空间上“土壤侵蚀内城区”分布在湖北省的周边地区，经济贫困、管理落后，这一地区的经济水平与水土流失间形成“自反馈作用”，这一现象在我国水土保持、生态建设工作中应该引起重视。  相似文献   

Bayesian inversion of 1994–1998 vertical displacements at Mt Etna: evidence for magma intrusion     

F. Obrizzo  F. Pingue  C. Troise  G. De Natale 《Geophysical Journal International》2004,157(2):935-946

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Determining the maximum degree of harmonic coefficients in geopotential models by Monte Carlo methods   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

K. R. Koch r 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2005,49(3):259-275

Random errors for the harmonic coefficients of a geopotential model are generated from the matrix of normal equations by a parallel computer applying the Gibbs sampler. This leads to random values for the harmonic coefficients. They are transformed by nonlinear, quadratic transformations to random values for the square roots of degree variances, of mean squares of geoid undulations and gravity anomalies. The expected values of these quantities are not equal to the values of these quantities computed by the estimated harmonic coefficients, due to correlations and errors in the estimation. By hypothesis tests estimated harmonic coefficients distorted by correlations and errors are detected. Applying the tests to the geopotential model ITG-CHAMP01 of the Institute of Theoretical Geodesy in Bonn it is concluded that above the degree 62 the harmonic coefficients cannot add any information to the geopotential model.  相似文献   

Estimation of daily stream water temperatures with a Bayesian regression approach          下载免费PDF全文

Mohammad M. Sohrabi  Rohan Benjankar  Daniele Tonina  Seth J. Wenger  Daniel J. Isaak 《水文研究》2017,31(9):1719-1733

Stream water temperature plays a significant role in aquatic ecosystems where it controls many important biological and physical processes. Reliable estimates of water temperature at the daily time step are critical in managing water resources. We developed a parsimonious piecewise Bayesian model for estimating daily stream water temperatures that account for temporal autocorrelation and both linear and nonlinear relationships with air temperature and discharge. The model was tested at 8 climatically different basins of the USA and at 34 sites within the mountainous Boise River Basin (Idaho, USA). The results show that the proposed model is robust with an average root mean square error of 1.25 °C and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.92 over a 2‐year period. Our approach can be used to predict historic daily stream water temperatures in any location using observed daily stream temperature and regional air temperature data.  相似文献   

Characterisation of hydroclimatological trends and variability in the Lake Naivasha basin,Kenya          下载免费PDF全文

Vincent Omondi Odongo  Christiaan van der Tol  Pieter R. van Oel  Frank M. Meins  Robert Becht  Japheth Onyando  Zhongbo Su 《水文研究》2015,29(15):3276-3293

Recent hydro‐climatological trends and variability characteristics were investigated for the Lake Naivasha basin with the aim of understanding the changes in water balance components and their evolution over the past 50 years. Using a Bayesian change point analysis and modified Mann–Kendall tests, time series of annual mean, maximum, minimum, and seasonal precipitation and flow, as well as annual mean lake volumes, were analysed for the period 1960–2010 to uncover possible abrupt shifts and gradual trends. Double cumulative curve analysis was used to investigate the changes in hydrological response attributable to either human influence or climatic variability. The results indicate a significant decline in lake volumes at a mean rate of 9.35 × 10⁶ m³ year^?1. Most of the river gauging stations showed no evidence of trends in the annual mean and maximum flows as well as seasonal flows. Annual minimum flows, however, showed abrupt shifts and significant (upward/downward) trends at the main outlet stations. Precipitation in the basin showed no evidence of abrupt shifts, but a few stations showed gradual decline. The observed changes in precipitation could not explain the decline in both minimum flows and lake volumes. The findings show no evidence of any impact of climate change for the Lake Naivasha basin over the past 50 years. This implies that other factors, such as changes in land cover and infrastructure development, have been responsible for the observed changes in streamflow and lake volumes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

高光谱影像概率分类向量机分类方法研究     

薛志祥  余旭初  张鹏强  谭熊  魏祥坡 《测绘科学技术学报》2016,(4):426-430

从分析基于支持向量机和相关向量机的高光谱影像分类方法的优势和不足出发,将基于概率分类向量机的方法用于高光谱影像分类试验。在贝叶斯理论框架下,概率分类向量机为基函数权值引入截断Gauss先验概率分布,使得不同类别的基函数权值具有不同符号的先验分布,并利用EM算法进行参数推断,得到足够稀疏的概率模型,弥补了相关向量机选取错误类别的样本作为相关向量的不足,从而有效地提高了模型的分类精度和稳定性。OMIS和PHI影像分类试验表明,概率分类向量机能够很好地应用在高光谱影像分类。  相似文献   

并行处理技术在地理信息数据处理中的应用     

徐道柱  金澄  焦洋洋 《测绘科学技术学报》2016,(6):629-634

随着地理信息存储量的飞速增长,传统的单进程、集中式的数据处理方式已不能满足基于网络的地理信息服务的效能要求。分析对比了OpenMP,MPI和MapReduce等主流并行编程模式,将关系型数据库与分布式空间数据管理系统相结合,提出了面向并行处理的地理信息存储模型和数据组织模型,将该模型与传统模型进行了对比分析,并基于MapReduce实现了地理空间数据并行处理框架,选取了矢量数据装载、影像数据装载以及数据切片作为典型数据处理案例开展对比实验,该技术方案的处理效率均数倍于传统技术方案。实验表明,该模型能够很好地支持并行处理框架,可为分布式环境下数据处理中心构建提供一个有效解决方案。  相似文献   

中短期数字化天气预报技术现状及趋势   总被引：5，自引：3，他引：2  

代刊  曹勇  钱奇峰  高嵩  赵声蓉  谌芸  钱传海 《气象》2016,42(12):1445-1455

建立无缝隙集约化的天气预报业务体系,需要进一步加强中短期天气预报业务技术的发展。通过对现状回顾,指出经过2011—2015年的气象现代化建设,在我国国家级和部分省级业务单位已初步建立了数字化中短期业务预报技术流程,其包括数值模式系统、客观方法释用、预报主观编辑制作以及精细化格点后处理四个方面。但与国外发达国家相比,我国中短期业务技术还存在数值模式发展水平不高、客观预报技术方法未全面深入开展、缺乏有效技术工具支撑预报员进行订正、格点化的处理技术基础薄弱等问题。文章在发展现状和问题分析的基础上,提出未来应提高自主数值模式系统的基础支撑作用,深入发展海量预报信息的客观提取及订正技术,加强开发主观和客观融合的技术和工具平台,完善精细化的格点处理技术的发展思路,并进行具体阐述。最后,从技术发展的基础数据支持、路线选择、发展规律以及交流共享四个方面提出参考意见。  相似文献   

Study of high temperature targets identification and temperature retrieval experimental model in SWIR remote sensing based Landsat8     

《International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation》2016

For surface features in short-wave infrared (SWIR, 1.3–3.0 μm) in remote sensing imagery, pixel values depict the total energy including reflection and emission. For surface features at normal temperature in SWIR band, emission energy can be ignored. While for surface features at high temperature in SWIR band, emission energy is equal to or even higher than the reflection energy. So remote sensing imagery of SWIR band can be used to separate emission and reflection energy as well as to realize temperature retrieval of high temperature targets. In this study, the seventh band (SWIR band) of Landsat8 OLI remote sensing imagery is used to perform the theoretical model research for temperature retrieval of high temperature targets. In the meantime, it is also used with the corresponding observation experiment of synchronization satellite to check the theoretical model. The result shows that the radiant flux density for mixed pixels with high temperature targets is higher than adjacent pixels without high temperature targets. Thus, the high temperature pixels can be identified in SWIR band. The retrieval results of temperature and fractional area for high temperature targets are consistent with reality. In the study, the result illustrates that it is effective to identify high temperature targets in remote sensing imagery of SWIR band and the model is appropriate for temperature retrieval use.  相似文献