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A Bayesian inference approach is introduced to identify soil degradation behaviours at four downhole array sites. The approach of inference is based on a parametric time‐varying infinite impulse response filter model. The approach is shown to be adaptive to the changes of filter parameters and noise amplitudes. Four sites, including the Lotung (Taiwan), Chiba (Japan), Garner Valley (California), and Treasure Island (California) sites with downhole seismic arrays are analysed. Our results show two major types of soil degradation behaviour: the well‐known strain‐dependent softening, and reduction in stiffness that is not instantaneously recoverable. It is also found that both types of soil degradation are more pronounced in sandy soils than in clayey soils. The mechanism for the second type of soil degradation is not yet clear to the authors and suggested to be further studied. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
Smoothing and Change Point Detection for Gamma Ray Count Data 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Gamma ray detectors are used to measure the natural radioactivity of rocks. For a number of boreholes drilled at a site the gamma ray detector is lowered into each borehole and counts of gamma ray emissions at different depths are recorded as the instrument is gradually raised to ground level. The profile of gamma counts can be informative about the geology at each location. The raw count data are highly variable, and in this paper we describe the use of adaptive smoothing techniques and change point models in order to identify changes in the geology based on the gamma logs. We formulate all our models for the data in the framework of the class of generalized linear models, and describe computational methods for Bayesian inference and model selection for generalized linear models that improve on existing techniques. Application is made to gamma ray data from the Castelreagh Waste Management Centre which served as a hazardous waste disposal facility for the Sydney region between March 1974 and August 1998. Understanding the geological structure of this site is important for further modelling the transport of pollutants beneath the waste disposal area. 相似文献
14.
Daniel G. Gavin W. Wyatt Oswald Eugene R. Wahl John W. Williams 《Quaternary Research》2003,60(3):356-367
The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog. 相似文献
15.
With multiscale permeability estimation one does not select parameterization prior to the estimation. Instead, one performs a hierarchical search for the right parameterization while solving a sequence of estimation problems with an increasing parameterization dimension. In some previous works on the subject, the same refinement is applied all over the porous medium. This may lead to over-parameterization, and subsequently, to unrealistic permeability estimates and excessive computational work. With adaptive multiscale permeability estimation, the new parameterization at an arbitrary stage in the estimation sequence is such that new degrees of freedom are not necessarily introduced all over the porous medium. The aim is to introduce new degrees of freedom only where it is warranted by the data. In this paper, we introduce a novel adaptive multiscale estimation. The approach is used to estimate absolute permeability from two-phase pressure data in several numerical examples. 相似文献
16.
A. Douaik M. van Meirvenne T. Tóth M. Serre 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2004,18(4):219-227
The mapping of saline soils is the first task before any reclamation effort. Reclamation is based on the knowledge of soil salinity in space and how it evolves with time. Soil salinity is traditionally determined by soil sampling and laboratory analysis. Recently, it became possible to complement these hard data with soft secondary data made available using field sensors like electrode probes. In this study, we had two data sets. The first includes measurements of field salinity (ECa) at 413 locations and 19 time instants. The second, which is a subset of the first (13 to 20 locations), contains, in addition to ECa, salinity determined in the laboratory (EC2.5). Based on a procedure of cross-validation, we compared the prediction performance in the space-time domain of 3 methods: kriging using either only hard data (HK) or hard and mid interval soft data (HMIK), and Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) using probabilistic soft data. We found that BME was less biased, more accurate and giving estimates, which were better correlated with the observed values than the two kriging techniques. In addition, BME allowed one to delineate with better detail saline from non-saline areas. 相似文献
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淮河息县站流量概率预报模型研究 总被引:11,自引:0,他引:11
应用美国天气局采用的由Roman Krzysztofowicz开发的贝叶斯统计理论建立概率水文预报理论框架,即以分布函数形式定量地描述水文预报不确定度,研究了淮河息县站流量概率预报模型。理论和经验表明,概率预报至少与确定性预报一样有价值,特别当预报不确定度较大时,概率预报比现行确定性预报具有更高的经济价值。 相似文献
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20.
Determining the maximum degree of harmonic coefficients in geopotential models by Monte Carlo methods 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
K. R. Koch r 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2005,49(3):259-275
Random errors for the harmonic coefficients of a geopotential model are generated from the matrix of normal equations by a parallel computer applying the Gibbs sampler. This leads to random values for the harmonic coefficients. They are transformed by nonlinear, quadratic transformations to random values for the square roots of degree variances, of mean squares of geoid undulations and gravity anomalies. The expected values of these quantities are not equal to the values of these quantities computed by the estimated harmonic coefficients, due to correlations and errors in the estimation. By hypothesis tests estimated harmonic coefficients distorted by correlations and errors are detected. Applying the tests to the geopotential model ITG-CHAMP01 of the Institute of Theoretical Geodesy in Bonn it is concluded that above the degree 62 the harmonic coefficients cannot add any information to the geopotential model. 相似文献