应用遥感构造解析方法分析汶川和玉树地震的构造活动过程———试作区域性地震活动预测分析     

李述靖 《地质力学学报》2011,17(1):41-54,78

每次地震都是一次岩石圈表层的构造变形与位移,一组时空相近而有成生联系的地震,代表着某种方式与方向的地壳运动,即每次地震均可视为一次“地震—构造事件”。应用遥感构造解析方法,将地震视为“地震—构造事件”,对中国近20年来的地震活动进行分析和危险区评估,结果比较合乎实际。据此,对未来5~10年中国东部地区的地震活动趋势进行了预测,认为:两广及其沿海地带和华北平原中部存在发生强破坏性地震的较大风险。   相似文献   

2015年4月25日尼泊尔M_w7.8地震孕育过程分析与震后趋势研判          下载免费PDF全文

李培  秦四清  薛雷  李国梁 《地球物理学报》2015,58(5):1827-1833

基于作者提出的孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论及板间地震区划分原则,划分了伊斯兰堡—加德满都地震区.从孕育周期界定与主震事件判识角度,分析了该地震区大(巨)震事件的孕育过程,研判了其未来震情.结果表明:伊斯兰堡—加德满都地震区至少已经历三个完整的孕育周期,是一个Mw8.3~8.6地震危险区;2015年4月25日尼泊尔Mw7.8地震,是该区当前孕育周期第三锁固段损伤累积至峰值强度点时发生的一次标志性大震事件;2015年5月12日尼泊尔Mw7.3地震发生后,该地震区再次处于临界状态,将发生Mw8.0~8.2地震.  相似文献   

Seasonal changes in runoff generation in a small forested mountain catchment   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

D. Penna  H. J. van Meerveld  O. Oliviero  G. Zuecco  R. S. Assendelft  G. Dalla Fontana  M. Borga 《水文研究》2015,29(8):2027-2042

This study aimed to investigate the seasonal variability of runoff generation processes, the sources of stream water, and the controls on the contribution of event water to streamflow for a small forested catchment in the Italian pre‐Alps. Hydrometric, isotopic, and electrical conductivity data collected between August 2012 and August 2013 revealed a marked seasonal variability in runoff responses. Noticeable differences in runoff coefficients and hydrological dynamics between summer and fall/spring rainfall events were related to antecedent moisture conditions and event size. Two‐component and three‐component hydrograph separation and end‐member mixing analysis showed an increase in event water contributions to streamflow with event size and average rainfall intensity. Event water fractions were larger during dry conditions in the summer, suggesting that stormflow generation in the summer consisted predominantly of direct channel precipitation and some saturated overland flow from the riparian zone. On the contrary, groundwater and hillslope soil water contributions dominated the streamflow response during wet conditions in fall. Seasonal differences were also noted between event water fractions computed based on isotopic and electrical conductivity data, likely because of the dilution effect during the wetter months. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Bed morphological changes around a finite patch of vegetation          下载免费PDF全文

Hyung Suk Kim  Ichiro Kimura  Yasuyuki Shimizu 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2015,40(3):375-388

For the appropriate management and restoration of rivers, isolated vegetation is often a practical means for improving stream habitat and ecology. The effect of a finite vegetation patch on flow and bed morphology in an open channel was investigated using laboratory experiments. The patch containing emergent and submerged vegetation was modeled using circular cylinders and located mid‐channel along a side wall. Several configurations of the patch and submergence ratio (i.e. water depth to the height of vegetation), and two flow conditions (i.e. below and above the sediment motion threshold) were considered. For flows below the sediment motion threshold, erosion occurred primarily on the opposite side of the patch and near the leading edge of the patch. The degree of scouring depth observed in both these regions was affected by the submergence ratio and it increased with the non‐dimensional flow blockage (i.e. the product of the patch density and width). In contrast, for flows above the sediment motion threshold, sediment accumulated within and around the patch due to a reduction in bed shear stress, which was strongly influenced by the flow blockage and the obstruction ratio (i.e. the ratio of patch width to channel width). The eroded area observed within the patch was consistent with the interior adjustment region where the deceleration and diversion of flow occurred through the patch. As the flow blockage increased or as the obstruction ratio decreased, the deposition rate within and behind the patch decreased. Furthermore, the deposition rate increased with an increase in the ratio of flow rate through the patch to total flow rate regardless of the submergence ratio. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

振幅衰减特性在地震与爆破识别中的应用   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

王婷婷  边银菊 《地震学报》2015,37(1):169-179

基于小震级地震与爆破事件,从快速识别要求出发,分析了P波初动振幅AI和P波最大振幅AP分别与S波最大振幅AS的幅值比判据及其对事件的识别能力．考虑到传播路径对地震与爆破各振幅的影响,选用合理的振幅随距离衰减公式,分别研究了P波、 S波各振幅随震中距的衰减特征,结果显示爆破振幅衰减比地震快; 在100 km处进行衰减校正后重新计算P波与S波幅值比,得到经过衰减校正后的幅值比AI/AS正确识别率从84%提高到98%,AP/AS正确识别率从92%提高到100%,表明经衰减校正后的幅值比判据可以更好地应用于小震级地震与爆破的识别中．   相似文献   

2008年中国南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害网络建模及演化机制研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李双双  杨赛霓  刘宪锋  刘焱序 《地理研究》2015,34(10):1887-1896

基于中国0.5°×0.5°逐日气温和降水格网数据,利用复杂网络分析方法,对2008年南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害综合致灾过程进行再认识,综合分析低温雨雪冰冻灾害在时空维度的网络特性。结果表明：2008年南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害是典型的多灾种叠加事件,低温与雨雪灾害叠加放大了致灾因子的危险性;基础设施设防水平低与春运高峰叠加增大了承灾体的脆弱性;低山丘陵区与人口聚集区叠加降低了孕灾环境的稳定性。低温冰冻雨雪灾害具有小世界特征和核心—边缘结构,具体表现为：在空间打击上具有集聚性,影响区域相对集中;在时间打击上具有连续性,间隔1天事件相对较少。在研究方法上,复杂网络是一种有效分析多灾种叠加的方法,可以进一步挖掘自然灾害的时空演化信息。  相似文献   

吉林省极端严寒事件时空分布特征及评估方法研究     

袭祝香  纪玲玲  高晓荻  张硕 《地理科学》2015,35(10):1341-1346

利用1951~2013年最低气温资料和灰色关联度、气候倾向率、Gumbel极值分布等方法分析了吉林省严寒的时空分布特征和气候变化规律,给出了严寒过程的等级评估指标和异常气候重现期指标,对2011~2013年的严寒过程进行了评估。结果表明：吉林省严寒主要在冬季出现,在1月中旬前后达到峰值;中南部地区为严寒多发区,其它地区出现较少;吉林省年平均严寒发生次数呈下降的趋势,其中中西部地区呈上升的趋势,东南部地区呈下降的趋势;吉林省严寒次数的阶段性变化明显,1951~1980年呈偏多的阶段,1981~2013年处于偏少阶段;吉林省严寒过程主要出现在1月;利用序位以及等级评估、异常气候重现期评估指标对严寒过程进行评估,可满足快速、及时评估的气象服务的需求。  相似文献   

孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索   总被引：24，自引：6，他引：18       下载免费PDF全文

秦四清  徐锡伟  胡平  王媛媛  黄鑫  泮晓华 《地球物理学报》2010,53(4):1001-1014

通过建立孕震断层中锁固段的临界破坏-断裂力学与其蠕变过程联系,发现每个锁固段断裂点与加速应变能释放起点的累积Benioff应变之比,有着依赖于锁固段个数的指数律关系,指数函数的底数为1.48.在最后一个锁固段破坏以前,每一个锁固段的临界破坏-断裂过程表示一个中等强度或更大震级预震（preshock）的产生过程;在最后一个锁固段破坏之后,主震将发生.通过相当数量地震实例的回溯性预测分析,表明这一指数律能可靠地应用于中等强度预震和主震的预测.该方法能够在地震的中期、短期以及临震预报方面发挥作用.常数1.48很可能是表征中等强度或更大震级的预震和主震产生过程的普适常数.我们还对地震预报研究中某些有争议的问题进行了讨论,从理论和技术层面论证了本方法的适用性.  相似文献   

西安北郊渭河河漫滩沉积与洪水事件   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

牛俊杰  赵景波  马莉  顾静 《地理研究》2010,29(8):1484-1492

根据西安北郊相家巷河漫滩沉积剖面中180个样品的颗粒分析和历史文献资料记载,研究了西安北郊相家巷漫滩沉积代表的洪水事件。研究表明:西安北郊相家巷剖面洪水沉积分层明显,对洪水的发生和短期降水量变化反映清楚。相家巷剖面洪水沉积厚度约为5.40m,可划分为28个层,指示发生了28次大小不同的洪水事件。剖面中的洪水沉积以中、粗砂和细砂为主,指示当时的洪水规模比近120年来关中渭河洪水明显大。这28次洪水事件发生时高漫滩上的洪水深度均大于2.2m,剖面中的第12、14、19~28层代表特大洪水事件。西安北郊相家巷洪水沉积代表的大规模洪水主要是由当年降水量的明显增加引起的。  相似文献   

Frontal genesis of moisture atmosphere during the early 2008 persistent freezing-rain event in southern China     

QIAN WeiHong & FU JiaoLan 《中国科学:地球科学(英文版)》2010,(3)

From January 10 to February 2, 2008, a severe and persistent freezing-rain event occurred in southern and southwestern China. Here we use an observational analysis to compare the persistent freezing-rain event in the early 2008 with the winter precipita- tion in the late 2007 over south of the Yangtze River (Jiangnan). The persistent freezing-rain event was directly linked to the activity of quasi-stationary front. The gradient of equivalent temperature (ET) can well indicate the frontal genesis of moist atmosphere (moisture front) and its activity as well as its relationship with precipitation belt. The precipitation types (snow and freezing rains) are related to the vertical structure of moisture front. The inversion profile of ET vertical distribution is a typical synoptic condition that caused the freezing-rain event. The horizontal gradient of ET with a criterion of 10℃ / 100 km, which reflects the accumulation and release of atmospheric energy, can be applied to predict the precipitation 5-10 days in advance.  相似文献