Blood metal levels and metal-influenced immune functions of harbour seals in captivity   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Kakuschke A  Valentine-Thon E  Griesel S  Rosenberger T  Mundry R  Siebert U  Prange A 《Marine pollution bulletin》2008,56(4):764-769

Immunological blood parameters and the effects of environmental pollutants on the immune system are important to assess the health status of seals. Animals living permanently in seal centres are useful for development and validation of diagnostic tools for free-ranging animals. In this study, parameters of cellular immunity as well as metal concentrations in blood and metal influence on cell proliferation of seven seals from a seal centre were investigated repeatedly using multi-element analysis and a lymphocyte proliferation assay. The metal concentrations, except for tin and chromium, were in general comparable to those of free-ranging animals of the North Sea. The unstimulated and mitogen-stimulated lymphocyte proliferation showed strong intra- and inter-individual variability, which reflected variability in activation of the immune status. Furthermore, both immunosuppressive and stimulative influences of metals on lymphocytes were found. Summarising, the methods used in this investigation provided useful information on these animals, and their application to free-ranging animals can be recommended.  相似文献   

Simulations of the 2004 lava flow at Etna volcano using the magflow cellular automata model     

Ciro Del Negro  Luigi Fortuna  Alexis Herault  Annamaria Vicari 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2008,70(7):805-812

Since the mechanical properties of lava change over time, lava flows represent a challenge for physically based modeling. This change is ruled by a temperature field which needs to be modeled. MAGFLOW Cellular Automata (CA) model was developed for physically based simulations of lava flows in near real-time. We introduced an algorithm based on the Monte Carlo approach to solve the anisotropic problem. As transition rule of CA, a steady-state solution of Navier-Stokes equations was adopted in the case of isothermal laminar pressure-driven Bingham fluid. For the cooling mechanism, we consider only the radiative heat loss from the surface of the flow and the change of the temperature due to mixture of lavas between cells with different temperatures. The model was applied to reproduce a real lava flow that occurred during the 2004–2005 Etna eruption. The simulations were computed using three different empirical relationships between viscosity and temperature.  相似文献   

基于CA的昆嵛山腮扁叶蜂传播的空间模拟     

林琳  周汝良 《云南地理环境研究》2009,21(3):53-56,77

元胞自动机CA（Cellular Automaton）与地理信息系统（GIS）的集成弥补了GIS在时空分析和时空演化方面的不足,为昆虫种群生态学的研究提供了新的手段。利用DEM提取地形因子,使用统计分析分析了昆嵛山腮扁叶蜂与林分因子、立地因子之间的关系。主要取得了腮扁叶蜂虫口密度与立地因子关系密切,并推导出了腮扁叶蜂的虫口密度与海拔、坡度、坡向、坡位的逐步逻辑回归数学模型。以数学模型结合空间自相关函数建立时空预测模型作为转换规则,以地理信息系统为平台利用元胞自动机模型模拟腮扁叶蜂传播,预测结果给出了昆嵛山腮扁叶蜂密度分布的结果,给防治决策提供了方便。  相似文献   

基于元胞自动机民勤绿洲湖区荒漠化演化预测   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

宋冬梅  吴远龙  张志诚  王建  李小玉 《中国沙漠》2009,29(5):802-807

民勤湖区是民勤绿洲中生态环境最为恶劣的地区,土地荒漠化问题十分突出。以民勤绿洲湖区为例,解译1992年、1998年、2002年和2006年TM卫星影像,分析其荒漠化动态变化情况,利用ArcObjects模块结合地理元胞自动机理论构造荒漠化动态模拟模型,通过对比2006年的预测数据与实际数据,对模型进行参数调整和预测检验。预测结果表明,模型预测的准确性达到90%。最后对2012年该区土地利用状况做出预测,进而对荒漠化的发展趋势进行预测分析。  相似文献   

基于SD和CA的城镇土地扩展模拟模型——以江苏省南通地区为例   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

秦贤宏  段学军  李慧  卢雨田 《地理科学》2009,29(3)

充分利用系统动力学模型(System Dynamics,SD)在情景模拟和宏观因素反映上的优势和元胞自动机模型(Cellular Automata,CA)在微观土地利用空间格局反映上的优势,构建一个耦合SD和CA的城镇土地扩展模拟模型,并以江苏省南通地区为例,对模型的实证应用做了进一步的验证。结果表明,这种耦合模型不仅能够对研究区域未来城镇土地扩展数量给予一个比较好的预测,而且还对其空间分布效果做了一定精度上的模拟,这使得城市规划在土地利用预测方面有一个相对科学的依据。  相似文献   

摩擦时间依从的地震活动性细胞自动机模型   总被引：11，自引：1，他引：10       下载免费PDF全文

刘桂萍  傅征祥  刘杰 《地球物理学报》2000,43(2):203-212

设计了一个改进的单断层地震孕育过程细胞自动机（ＣＡ）模型,通过设计外界通过 施加应力与模型间进行的能量交换和模型的细胞之间存在的非线性力学作用,试图理解地震 活动特性的力学机制．与早期细胞自动机模型相比,改进了参数的取值方式,将摩擦时间依 从的理论引进模型,使该细胞自动机模型更接近实际的孕震系统．研究表明参数取值方式对 人工地震序列和各细胞破裂事件的非均匀时间特性有重要影响,较小震级和较大震级范围中 的事件分别遵从明显不同的累积频度一震级关系．  相似文献   

低速十字路口交通流模型相图     

李启朗  孙晓燕  汪秉宏  刘慕仁 《海洋学报》2010,32(9):5996-6002

研究由两个单车道构成低速十字路口交通流模型.模型中两车道上的车辆更新遵循无交通灯管制下的并行规则.依据构建相图的原则并采用局部占有概率方法,建立相图,给出相图中的各部分区域的流量表达式.两车道均采用周期边界条件和确定性FI模型进行数值模拟,模拟结果与理论分析精确一致.模型中两条车道的行车规则更接近实际道路交通,该结果为交通管理提供一定的指导作用.  相似文献   

Complexity theory, spatial simulation models, and land use dynamics in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon     

Stephen J. Walsh  Joseph P. Messina 《Geoforum》2008,39(2):867-878

Our research questions and analytical approaches are used to examine coupled human-natural systems in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon. They are based on complexity theory and extend from our earlier work in Cellular Automata (CA) in which land use/land cover (LULC) change patterns were spatially simulated to examine deforestation and agricultural extensification on household farms. The basic intent is to understand linkages between people and the environment by explicitly considering pattern-process relationships and the nature of feedback mechanisms among social, biophysical, and geographical factors that influence LULC dynamics within the study area. In this research, we describe how our CA modeling approach emphasizes the human dimensions of LULC change by including socio-economic and demographic characteristics at the household-level along with biophysical data that describe the resource endowments of farms, geographic accessibility of farms to roads and communities, and the evolving nature of human-environment interactions over time and space in response to exogenous and endogenous factors.A LULC change scenario is examined by comparing model outcomes generated for a base CA model and an alternative CA model to explore the effects of increases in household income on land use change patterns at the farm level, achieved as a consequence of improved geographic accessibility to roads and communities and increased off-farm employment as a household livelihood strategy. Growth or transitions rules in our CA model, as well as neighborhood associations are sensitive to socio-economic and demographic factors of households, resource endowments of farms, geographic accessibility, and the uncertainty associated with peasant farming in a frontier setting. Model outcomes indicate that increases in household income are associated with more land in pasture and more land being cultivated for crops as a result of greater access to agricultural markets. In addition, more land in secondary forest succession occurs as a consequence of greater access to roads and communities, thereby, affording a better opportunity for off-farm employment and greater levels of household income.  相似文献   

A hybrid genetic algorithm with local optimiser improves calibration of a vegetation change cellular automata model     

Rachel Whitsed  Lisa T. Smallbone 《International journal of geographical information science》2017,31(4):717-737

Cellular automata (CA) models are commonly used to model vegetation dynamics, with the genetic algorithm (GA) being one method of calibration. This article investigates different GA settings, as well as the combination of a GA with a local optimiser to improve the calibration effort. The case study is a pattern-calibrated CA to model vegetation regrowth in central Victoria, Australia. We tested 16 GA models, varying population size, mutation rate, and level of allowable mutation. We also investigated the effect of applying a local optimiser, the Nelder?Mead Downhill Simplex (NMDS) at GA convergence. We found that using a decreasing mutation rate can reduce computational cost while avoiding premature GA convergence, while increasing population size does not make the GA more efficient. The hybrid GA-NMDS can also reduce computational cost compared to a GA alone, while also improving the calibration metric. We conclude that careful consideration of GA settings, including population size and mutation rate, and in particular the addition of a local optimiser, can positively impact the efficiency and success of the GA algorithm, which can in turn lead to improved simulations using a well-calibrated CA model.  相似文献   

Calibrating a Land Parcel Cellular Automaton (LP-CA) for urban growth simulation based on ensemble learning   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yimin Chen 《International journal of geographical information science》2017,31(12):2480-2504

The reliability of raster cellular automaton (CA) models for fine-scale land change simulations has been increasingly questioned, because regular pixels/grids cannot precisely represent irregular geographical entities and their interactions. Vector CA models can address these deficiencies due to the ability of the vector data structure to represent realistic urban entities. This study presents a new land parcel cellular automaton (LP-CA) model for simulating urban land changes. The innovation of this model is the use of ensemble learning method for automatic calibration. The proposed model is applied in Shenzhen, China. The experimental results indicate that bagging-Naïve Bayes yields the highest calibration accuracy among a set of selected classifiers. The assessment of neighborhood sensitivity suggests that the LP-CA model achieves the highest simulation accuracy with neighbor radius r = 2. The calibrated LP-CA is used to project future urban land use changes in Shenzhen, and the results are found to be consistent with those specified in the official city plan.  相似文献