Runoff reduction due to environmental changes in the Sanchuanhe river basin   总被引：10，自引：1，他引：9  

Guoqing WANG Jianyun ZHANG Ruimin HE Naiqian JIANG Xin＇ai JING 《国际泥沙研究》2008,23(2):174-180

Recently, runoff in many river basins in China has been decreasing. Therefore, the role that climate change and human activities are playing in this decrease is currently of interest. In this study, we evaluated an assessment method that was designed to quantitatively separate the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in river basins. Specifically, we calibrated the SIMHYD rainfall runoff model using naturally recorded hydro-meteorologic data pertaining to the Sanchuanhe River basin and then determined the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff by comparing the estimated natural runoff that occurred during the period in which humans disturbed the basin to the runoff that occurred during the period prior to disturbance by humans. The results of this study revealed that the S1MHYD rainfall runoff model performs well for estimating monthly discharge. In addition, we found that absolute runoff reductions have increased in response to human activities and climate change, with average reductions of 70.1% and 29.9% in total runoff being caused by human activities and climate change, respectively. Taken together, the results of this study indicate that human activities are the primary cause of runoff reduction in the Sanchuanhe River basin.  相似文献   

The overlooked role of the ocean in mercury cycling in the Arctic     

Macdonald RW  Wang F  Stern G  Outridge P 《Marine pollution bulletin》2008,56(12):1963-1965

The rapid and high bioaccumulation of mercury in marine mammals and its spatial and temporal variations have been a major puzzle in the Arctic. While extensive efforts have been focussed on the monitoring and chemistry of atmospheric mercury depletion events, a recent mass budget estimate of mercury in the Arctic suggests that we have overlooked the role of the ocean itself. Only through focussed studies on Hg dynamics in the Arctic Ocean under a changing climate are we going to understand what the risk of mercury is to those marine ecosystems and the people who rely on them.  相似文献   

The Chi-Chi 1999 earthquake: Correlation between the spatio-temporal distribution of aftershocks and viscoelastic stress changes     

Chiou-Fen Shieh  Shyh-Yang Sheu 《Journal of Geodynamics》2008,45(4-5):208-216

The Chi-Chi 1999 (M_L = 7.3) earthquake generated a large number of aftershocks in the vicinity of the rupture plane. The spatial-temporal distribution of these aftershocks was recorded with high precision and thus provided a unique possibility to study whether the correlation between aftershocks and stress changes are primary due to coseismically induced stress changes (static), or whether stress relaxation processes (viscoelastic) in the lower crust contribute significantly to this correlation. From our analysis of a 3D finite element model simulating the viscoelastic stress changes due to the coseismic displacement and tectonic loading we found that the aftershocks are highly correlated with the stress variations (static and viscoelastic) caused by the main shock. Although we found that the correlation between seismicity rate changes and viscoelastic stress fluctuation is slightly better than that of the static stress changes, these differences can only be identified well in the lower crust. As a result, it is reasonable to conclude that static stress changes are the key mechanism for triggering early and shallow aftershocks in the upper crust. It is reasonable to infer that the viscoelastic relaxation in the lower crust does affect the occurrence of early aftershocks in the deep crust, but it does not significantly affect the shallow aftershocks. However, the stress changes induced from the lower crust gradually transfer to the upper crust and may influence the occurrence of aftershocks after a longer time period (>four Maxwell times).  相似文献   

Dynamic simulation of interactions between major earthquakes on the Xianshuihe fault zone   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Hui Wang  Jie Liu  YaoLin Shi  Huai Zhang  GuoMin Zhang 《中国科学D辑(英文版)》2008,51(10):1388-1400

The authors firstly evaluate the strain accumulation rate of the Xianshuihe fault zone based on earth- quake activity. We calculated the stress and seismic moment accumulation rate for each subsection of the Xianshuihe fault zone based on the distribution of geological slip rate and GPS survey results. According to the results, we get the recurrence intervals of characterized earthquakes on each sub- section respectively. A three-dimensional finite element model for western Sichuan is constructed to discuss the earthquakes triggering among major earthquakes (M>6.7) that occurred along the Xianshuihe fault zone since 1893. The calculated Coulomb failure stress changes (ΔCFS) show that 5 of the 6 earthquakes with Ms>6.7 were triggered by positive ΔCFS. The interactions between major earthquakes not only influence recurrence intervals of characterized earthquakes on each subsection, but also change recurrence behavior of major earthquakes along the whole fault zone.  相似文献   

长江三峡地区全新世环境演变及其古文化响应   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

史威  朱诚  李世杰  马春梅 《地理学报》2009,64(11)

依据长江三峡地区大九湖和玉溪剖面AMS14C测年数据(校正为日历年)建立了约9.3～2ka BP高分辨率多环境代用指标(δ13C、K、腐殖化度、抱粉总浓度、Rb、Sr及Rb/Sr)的变化曲线,并在此基础上与研究区周边反映全新世气候环境变化的不同沉积记录进行综合对比分析.与此同时,本文还通过对研究区古遗址和古洪水层的统计分析,获取了本区新石器以来古文化兴衰变迁和古洪水发生的完整信息.研究结果表明:(1)本区全新世大暖期约出现在7.6～4 ka BP.9.3～7.6 ka BP,本区气候极不稳定,波动幅度大,总体上冷湿,多次出现显著的降温或干旱事件(9.1、8.2和7.7 ka BP前后);4～2 ka BP,本区气候较此前偏干凉,且波动频繁.(2)7.6～ka BP的大暖期分为三个演变阶段:即6～5 ka BP为大暖期的鼎盛期,气候稳定,温暖湿润,植被及生态条件优越,洪水发生频率低;7.6～6 ka BP和5～4 ka BP为大暖期中具有不稳定特征的过渡期,其中5～4 ka BP及4 ka BP前后的降温事件仍较显著,且多发洪水.(3)本区史前古文化的主要形成发展期与大暖期持续阶段相对应,其中耕作业相对发达的大溪文化繁荣期出现在大暖期中的鼎盛阶段(约6～5 ka BP),大溪文化前后处于低潮及表现为衰退现象的古文化则对应气候环境的不稳定期,总体上,研究区古文化响应气候环境变化的主要方式是通过改变其生业结构的途径来实现的.  相似文献   

Effects of grazing and climate change on species diversity in sandy grassland, Inner Mongolia, China     

HaLin Zhao  oshiya Okuro  RuiLian Zhou  YuLin Li  XiaoAn Zuo  Gang Huang 《寒旱区科学》2009,1(1):0030-0038

To understand the effects of animal grazing activities and climate change on sandy grassland vegetation in northern China, a field grazing and protected enclosure experiment was conducted from 1992 through 2006 in Horqin Sand Land, Inner Mongolia. The results showed that (1) the grazing was primary responsible for changes of the vegetation richness and diversity in the grazing grassland and that changing climate was the main reason for changes in the species richness and diversity in the grassland protected from grazing; (2) light and moderate grazing can promote restoration of the richness and the diversity in the degraded grassland, and heavy grazing could result in a decrease of the richness and diversity; (3) heavy grazing can result in significant decrease of the perennial diversity, and moderate and light grazing promotes increase of the perennial diversity; the grazing, whether heavy or moderate and light grazing, was beneficial to increase of the annual diversity; (4) heavy grazing was not beneficial to diversity of Graminean and Chenopodiaceae, and moderate and light grazing was favorable the diversity of Compositae and Chenopodiaceae; (5) the warm-humid climate was favorable to increase of the richness and the diversity, and the warm-drought climate could result in decease of the richness and the diversity; (6) increased precipitation was favorable to perennial diversity and the diversity of Graminean, Leguminosae, and Compositae, and decreased precipitation had few effects on the annual diversity and Chenopodiaceae diversity.  相似文献   

汶川8.0级地震前BSQ型数字垂直摆倾斜仪观测到的地形变异常现象     

荆燕  张鸿旭  孙毅  李宏  范良龙  熊玉珍 《高校地质学报》2009,15(3):358

地倾斜连续观测是地壳形变观测研究中重要内容。汶川8.0级地震前,布设在四川德阳金河测点的新型BSQ型数字垂直摆倾斜仪观测到了明显的地形变异常现象。分析其观测结果可知,汶川8.0级地震前约半月时间内德阳金河测点的地倾斜运动速度较过去的平均运动水平提高了数十倍,且震前地表快速倾斜的方向在N25°W左右。除此之外,德阳金河BSQ型数字垂直摆倾斜仪测点还观测到较为完整的,对应于可以反映地表应力集中、释放过程的震前地表破裂过程。上述现象为今后研究强震孕育机理提供了重要的信息。介绍与分析了布设在龙门山断裂带附近的其它类型地倾斜仪在震前的观测结果。事实证明,BSQ型数字垂直摆倾斜仪在强震前的浅表过程监测中具有重要意义,值得在今后的地震前兆台网工作中进行推广。  相似文献   

Paleolimnological records of recent glacier recession in the Rwenzori Mountains,Uganda-D. R. Congo     

J. Russell  H. Eggermont  R. Taylor  D. Verschuren 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2009,41(2):253-271

The status of tropical glaciers is enormously important to our understanding of past, present, and future climate change, yet lack of continuous quantitative records of alpine glacier extent on the highest mountains of tropical East Africa prior to the 20th century has left the timing and drivers of recent glacier recession in the region equivocal. Here we investigate recent changes (the last 150–700 years) in lacustrine sedimentation, glacier extent, and biogeochemical processes in the Rwenzori Mountains (Uganda- Democratic Republic of Congo) by comparing sedimentological (organic and siliciclastic component determined by loss-on-ignition; LOI) and organic geochemical profiles (carbon and nitrogen abundance, ratio, and isotopic composition of sedimentary organic matter) from lakes occupying presently glaciated catchments against similar profiles from lakes located in catchments lacking glaciers. The siliciclastic content of sediments in the ‘glacial lakes’ significantly decreases towards the present, whereas ‘non-glacial lakes’ generally show weak trends in their siliciclastic content over time, demonstrating that changes in the siliciclastic content of glacial lake sediments primarily record fluctuations in glacier extent. Radiometric dating of our sediment cores indicates that prior to their late 19th-century recession Rwenzori glaciers stood at expanded ‘Little Ice Age’ positions for several centuries under a regionally dry climate regime, and that recession was underway by 1870 AD, during a regionally wet episode. These findings suggest that the influence of late 19th century reductions in precipitation in triggering Rwenzori glacier recession is weaker than previously thought. Our organic geochemical data indicate that glacier retreat has significantly affected carbon cycling in Afroalpine lakes, but trends in aquatic ecosystem functioning are variable among lakes and require more detailed analysis.  相似文献   

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related fire impacts in rural and urban interior Alaska     

Sarah F. Trainor  Monika Calef  David Natcher  F. Stuart Chapin III  A. David McGuire  Orville Huntington  Paul Duffy  T. Scott Rupp  La'Ona DeWilde  Mary Kwart  Nancy Fresco  & Amy Lauren Lovecraft 《Polar research》2009,28(1):100-118

This paper explores whether fundamental differences exist between urban and rural vulnerability to climate-induced changes in the fire regime of interior Alaska. We further examine how communities and fire managers have responded to these changes and what additional adaptations could be put in place. We engage a variety of social science methods, including demographic analysis, semi-structured interviews, surveys, workshops and observations of public meetings. This work is part of an interdisciplinary study of feedback and interactions between climate, vegetation, fire and human components of the Boreal forest social–ecological system of interior Alaska. We have learned that although urban and rural communities in interior Alaska face similar increased exposure to wildfire as a result of climate change, important differences exist in their sensitivity to these biophysical, climate-induced changes. In particular, reliance on wild foods, delayed suppression response, financial resources and institutional connections vary between urban and rural communities. These differences depend largely on social, economic and institutional factors, and are not necessarily related to biophysical climate impacts per se. Fire management and suppression action motivated by political, economic or other pressures can serve as unintentional or indirect adaptation to climate change. However, this indirect response alone may not sufficiently reduce vulnerability to a changing fire regime. More deliberate and strategic responses may be required, given the magnitude of the expected climate change and the likelihood of an intensification of the fire regime in interior Alaska.  相似文献   

Is climate change causing the increasing narwhal (Monodon monoceros) catches in Smith Sound, Greenland?     

Martin Reinhardt Nielsen 《Polar research》2009,28(2):238-245

This paper evaluates recent changes in narwhal ( Monodon monoceros ) catches in Siorapaluk, the northernmost community in Greenland, in consideration of the effects of changing climate and uncertainty of stock delineation. The catch statistics show a significant increase in narwhal catches by hunters in Siorapaluk after 2002, which does not appear to be a result of increased effort. Hunters attribute the increase to changed sea-ice conditions providing access by boat to Smith Sound as early as June and July. This indicates that climate change is likely to have a considerable impact on narwhal hunting in northern Greenland. Traditional ecological knowledge and scientific surveys suggest that narwhal in Smith Sound constitute an independent stock. The absence of scientific recommendations for this stock has been seen as an opportunity to increase quotas in West Greenland. Scientific management recommendations are urgently needed to allow the authorities to assign sustainable quotas for this stock. The development of collaborative management agreements and locally based monitoring are recommended to ensure local acceptance of regulations, and to allow rapid responses to climate change.  相似文献