Cooling of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere due to doubling of CO2     

R. A. Akmaev  V. I. Fomichev 《Annales Geophysicae》1998,16(11):1501-1512

A new parameterization of infrared radiative transfer in the 15-m CO₂ band has been incorporated into the Spectral mesosphere/lower thermosphere model (SMLTM). The parameterization is applicable to calculations of heating rates above approximately 15 km for arbitrary vertical profiles of the CO₂ concentration corresponding to the surface mixing ratio in the range 150–720 ppm. The sensitivity of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) to doubling of CO₂ has been studied. The thermal response in the MLT is mostly negative (cooling) and much stronger than in the lower atmosphere. An average cooling at the stratopause is about 14 K. It gradually decreases to approximately 8 K in the upper mesosphere and again increases to about 40–50 K in the thermosphere. The cooling and associated thermal shrinking result in a substantial density reduction in the MLT that reaches 40–45% in the thermosphere. Various radiative, chemical, and dynamical feedbacks potentially important for the thermal response in the MLT are discussed. It is noted that the results of simulations are strikingly similar to observations of long-term trends in the MLT. This suggests that during the last 3–4 decades the thermal structure in the real upper atmosphere has undergone substantial changes driven by forcing comparable with that due to doubling of CO₂.  相似文献   

古气候记录指示的天文周期分析     

顾震年 《天文学报》2002,43(4):432-442

利用西峰市以西16km处的巴家嘴黄土剖面的上新世以来的（6.2-2.5MaB.P.）磁化率和粒重及太平洋深海沉积物资料，用不同的数据分析方法，不仅得到地球轨道主要参数中（对应于偏心率、交角和气候岁差）的0.1Ma、0.041Ma和0.023Ma几个天文周期，而且还得到了0.20Ma、0.15Ma、0.08Ma和0.06Ma其他周期，它们都在80%置信度水平以上，此外，通过小波变换表明，所有这些周期呈现出时变特性，随不同的地质年代增强或逐渐消失，这说明古气候的变化受多种古环境的影响所致，近来提出0.1Ma周期变化不但和地球轨道偏心率有关，而且可能和星际尘埃粒子沉降速率和青藏高原的隆升有着密切的关系。因此，地球轨道参数变化影响气候长期变化只是其中一种因素。  相似文献   

全球纬向平均的海气耦合一维模式分析     

唐佑民 《成都信息工程学院学报》1991,(1)

本文从能量平衡角度,考虑海气相互作用和纬向间的差异,设计了一个纬向平均的海气耦合一维模式,进行了模式平衡态求解、敏感性试验以及随机分析。并对模式部分计算结果进行了与实测资料的比较,验证了模式的合理性和可信性。  相似文献   

Study of the climatological behaviors of Euro-Atlantic and West Asia blockings in the period of 1959–2018     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2020

In this study, comparison of blocking climatological behaviors is presented for the two periods of 1959–1988 and 1989–2018 in a part of the Northern Hemisphere including the Atlantic Ocean, Europe and West Asia regions. Blocking events were detected using a modified blocking index that is based on vertically integrated potential vorticity. By applying this index, the characteristics of detected blocking events such as frequency, duration, intensity and area were determined and compared for both the periods.According to the results, on average, 16 and 15 blocking events per year were identified in the first and second periods, respectively. The trend analysis shows that the number of blocking events in the period 1959–1988 was significantly decreased, while it was slightly increased in the period 1989–2018. Blocking activity was most prevalent from the eastern Atlantic through Europe to West Asia, but this longitude band exhibits a relatively eastward shift in the second period. In addition, the seasonal distributions are similar to those found in previous studies with the higher occurrence of blocking events during winter and autumn seasons and the lowest frequency in summer, as well as long-lasting events and greater intensity and extension in winter than the summer time, especially in the second period. These seasonal variations of blocking frequency may be due to synoptic scale eddies and planetary waves which are more active and stronger in the colder seasons than the other seasons. On the other hand, a comparison between the two periods shows that the blocking events tend to be more frequent over West Asia especially during summer in recent years. Although discrepancies between the two periods are not significant, they could be partly due to the impacts of climate change in recent decades.  相似文献   

影响我国北方冬半年气旋的气候特征及年际变率   总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1  

符娇兰  董林  康志明 《大气科学》2013,37(3):679-690

本文首先对气旋进行了客观定义,实现了气旋的自动识别与跟踪算法,利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料建立了近60年(1951～2010)我国北方冬半年气旋活动数据集。对气旋的气候特征与年际变率进行了探讨。结果表明:蒙古国中西部、雅布洛诺夫山脉东麓等为主要气旋源地;蒙古国东南部、内蒙古东南部、松嫩平原是气旋活跃区;内蒙古东南部、东北地区中北部为气旋消亡区与快速填塞区;初春、仲秋季节气旋较活跃,冬季气旋最少;随季节推移,气旋活动区域向南、向东推进;气旋移动以偏东路径居多,其次是东南、东北路径;700 hPa风场对气旋移动趋势具有较好的指示意义;24 h标准加深率大于0.5 Bergeron的快速发展气旋,位于内蒙古东部、东北地区中北部、日本海中部等地;爆发性气旋则主要位于日本海附近,我国大陆极少;极端最强气旋主要集中在1980年代以前的仲秋与初春;1980年代以来,气旋频次相对较少,强气旋有逐渐增加的趋势;气旋频次减少与东亚中高纬度大气低层斜压性减弱有关。  相似文献   

南方涛动、热带海温与西北太平洋副高的联系     

方之芳  罗增森 《成都信息工程学院学报》1990,(1)

本文应用统计方法,首先探讨南方涛动指数与西北太平洋副热带高压的联系,然后分析赤道和热带太平洋区域海温对南方涛动的响应情况,同时分析南方涛动响应区域的海温与当时及滞后的西北太平洋副热带高压的联系,从中探讨南方涛动、厄尔尼诺海温异常及西北太平洋副热带高压之间的一种可能的相互作用机制。  相似文献   

江苏省太阳总辐射的分布特征   总被引：11，自引：2，他引：9  

买苗  火焰  曾燕  俞亚勋 《气象科学》2012,32(3):269-274

利用江苏省淮安、南京、吕泗3站的逐月太阳总辐射资料和70个气象站的月日照百分率资料,采用气候学计算方法,计算并分析了全省各地逐月的太阳总辐射分布,指出江苏省太阳总辐射的季节分布特征是冬少夏多,春秋适量;太阳总辐射区域分布是北多南少;太阳总辐射的年变化呈现明显的双峰型分布,最大峰值分别出现在5月和7月下旬—8月上旬,6月下旬—7月上旬出现一个相对低谷阶段,恰好与江淮梅雨期多阴雨天气相对应。本文的结论为江苏省太阳能资源的开发利用提供了科学依据。  相似文献   

用降水量和无雨日数判别广州季节性干旱的对比分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

江晓南  冯静  简茂球 《广东气象》2009,31(5):4-5

利用广州市1951-2006年实测日降水量资料,通过统计方法对使用降水量和无雨日数判别广州季节性干旱情况作对比分析。结果发现,各季降水量和无雨日数序列之间都存在显著的反相变化关系,以冬季最显著、夏季最差;对日雨量较大的季节如春、夏季,用无雨日数判别季节干旱现象要比降水量更合适些,而对其它季节则2种指标无明显差别。  相似文献   

滇中雨季早晚对前期热带环流异常的响应   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

艾永智  尤红  解明恩  金少华 《热带气象学报》2009,25(5):607-614

使用云南省中部玉溪站1971—2007年逐年雨季开始期资料和同期1—5月NCEP/NCAR再分析月平均气压场、高度场及风场资料,用相关分析、诊断分析和EOF等方法研究了滇中雨季开始期对冬、春季热带环流异常变化的响应关系,并利用太平洋东部副热带高压及大西洋亚速尔高压的平均气压与印尼和孟加拉湾地区的平均气压之差,定义了滇中雨季预测指数(MYRSPI)。结果表明：滇中雨季开始期对前期热带环流的异常变化会产生较强响应,当冬、春季热带高度场异常升高(降低)和MYRSPI为负(正)距平时,初夏500 hPa西太平洋副热带高压偏强(偏弱)、偏西(偏东),滇中雨季偏晚(偏早)。统计表明,MYRSPI对滇中雨季早晚有较强的预测能力,可在实际业务中运用。  相似文献   

热带印度洋-太平洋热力异常联合模对我国夏季降水的影响   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

郑冬梅  张启龙 《热带气象学报》2009,25(5):581-588

基于我国160个台站的降水资料和西太平洋副热带高压指数,利用典型相关分析和合成分析等方法,研究了热带印度洋-太平洋热力异常联合模对我国夏季降水的影响,并探讨了该联合模与西太平洋副热带高压的关系。结果表明,该联合模对我国夏季降水有一年到半年的超前影响,且以冬季联合模对次年夏季降水的影响最显著。当冬季联合模出现正异常时,次年夏季我国四川地区、长江流域、华北南部降水偏多,而华北北部和江南大部分地区降水偏少;反之亦然。进一步分析表明,冬季热带印度洋-太平洋热力异常联合模对我国夏季降水的影响可能是通过夏季西太平洋副热带高压的变动来实现的。  相似文献