Halophilic Vibrios in the waters of Xiamen Harbor and Daya Bay     

Ni Chunzhi  Ye Dezan  Lin Yanshun  Zhou Zongcheng  Yao Ruimei  Gu Jingyu 《海洋学报(英文版)》1995,14(3):413-420

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A Bayesian Network Approach for Offshore Risk Analysis Through Linguistic Variables   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ren J. Wang J. Jenkinson I. Xu D. L. Yang J. B. 《中国海洋工程》2007,21(3):371-388

This paper presents a new approach for offshore risk analysis that is capable of dealing with linguistic probabilities in Bayesian networks(BNs).In this paper,linguistic probabilities are used to describe occurrence likelihood of hazardous events that may cause possible accidents in offshore operations.In order to use fuzzy information,an f-weighted valuation function is proposed to transform linguistic judgements into crisp probability distributions which can be easily put into a BN to model causal relationships among risk factors.The use of linguistic variables makes it easier for human experts to express their knowledge,and the transformation of linguistic judgements into crisp probabilities can significantly save the cost of computation,modifying and maintaining a BN model.The flexibility of the method allows for multiple forms of information to be used to quantify model relationships,including formally assessed expert opinion when quantitative data are lacking,or when only qualitative or vague statements can be made.The model is a modular representation of uncertain knowledge caused due to randomness,vagueness and ignorance.This makes the risk analysis of offshore engineering systems more functional and easier in many assessment contexts.Specifically,the proposed f-weighted valuation function takes into account not only the dominating values,but also the α-level values that are ignored by conventional valuation methods.A case study of the collision risk between a Floating Production,Storage and Off-loading(FPSO) unit and the authorised vessels due to human elements during operation is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.  相似文献   

Catchment area‐based evaluation of the AMC‐dependent SCS‐CN‐based rainfall–runoff models     

S. K. Mishra  M. K. Jain  R. P. Pandey  V. P. Singh 《水文研究》2005,19(14):2701-2718

Using a large set of rainfall–runoff data from 234 watersheds in the USA, a catchment area‐based evaluation of the modified version of the Mishra and Singh (2002a) model was performed. The model is based on the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS‐CN) methodology and incorporates the antecedent moisture in computation of direct surface runoff. Comparison with the existing SCS‐CN method showed that the modified version performed better than did the existing one on the data of all seven area‐based groups of watersheds ranging from 0·01 to 310·3 km². Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Calculation of diffusivities of passive fields in turbulent media     

N. A. Silant'ev 《地球物理与天体物理流体动力学》2013,107(2-4):183-197

Abstract

The exact numerical and approximate analytical solutions of the simplest nonlinear integral equation with second order nonlinearity for the averaged Green function are presented. It is assumed that the turbulence is stationary, homogeneous, isotropic and incompressible. Numerous examples of turbulent spectra are considered (peak-like spectrum, spectra of Kolmogorov's type with different forms of “pumping” regions, stepwise spectra etc.). Special emphasis is given to investigating the case of so called “frozen” turbulence when the parameter ξ =u ₀τ/R→∞ where uτ₀,R ₀ are characteristic velocity, lifetime and space scale of turbulent pulsations, respectively. It is shown that these solutions allow us to calculate the turbulent diffusivities accurately for arbitrary spectra with any values of the parameter ξ. The results take into account the possible helicity of turbulence concerned only with scalar passive fields (number density and temperature).  相似文献   

Quantifying the impact of no-till on runoff in southern Brazil at hillslope and catchment scales     

Ana L. Londero  Jean P. G. Minella  Fabio J. A. Schneider  Dinis Deuschle  Danrlei Menezes  Olivier Evrard  Madalena Boeni  Gustavo H. Merten 《水文研究》2021,35(3):e14094

No-till (NT) is a conservation system that improves the hydrological regime of agricultural slopes by providing greater surface protection and benefits to the physical and hydrological properties of soils. However, the isolated use of NT is not enough to control runoff and its associated degradation processes. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the runoff of agricultural slopes under NT under different runoff control conditions by monitoring 63 rainfall events in two 2.4-ha zero-order catchments and 27 rainfall events in four 0.6-ha macroplots. The catchments are paired and similar in terms of the type of soil and relief, but different regarding the presence of terraces. The macroplots have different soil and crop management systems. By using monitoring techniques, the hyetographs and hydrographs revealed the influence of the different types of management on the catchments and macroplots and allowed rainfall characteristics, runoff volume, runoff coefficients, water infiltration, peak runoff, response times, and curve number to be analysed. The terraces positively affected the NT and controlled runoff and related variables, in addition to infiltration significantly increasing and runoff reducing in the terraced catchment. All the hydrological information assessed pointed to the positive effects provided by the presence of the terraces. The results in the macroplots showed that high amounts of phytomass and/or chiselling do not control runoff and its correlated variables in medium and high magnitude events. The study concludes by underlining the need for additional measures to control runoff (terraces), even in areas under NT and with high phytomass production. Additionally, the study emphasizes the importance of monitoring at the catchment scale to better understand the hydrological behaviour of agricultural areas and provide the necessary parameters to effectively control runoff.  相似文献   

The changing malaria risk patterns in East-Central Europe and the North Balkans in the last 27 000 years     

Attila J. Trájer 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(7):1234-1253

Southeast Europe has historically been at the crossroads of migration routes between Western Asia and Europe. In the Holocene, this area might have been home to malaria. However, it is questionable when malaria arrived in this area and whether it could persist continuously or not in the Holocene. To begin to answer these questions, the July potential generation number of two malaria parasites were modelled, based on the reconstructed mean July temperatures of 52 times in the last 27 000 years. The results indicate that in the late Pleistocene era (27–12 kya bp ), vivax malaria might have been present in the south-east Black Sea and Aegean Sea's coastal areas. Vivax malaria could also be present in the Pannonian Basin and the inner parts of the North Balkans at least from the mid-Greenlandian period (~10 kya bp ). Although it is questionable whether falciparum malaria could be endemic in the Pannonian Basin during the mid-Holocene climate optimum (~6 kya bp ), this malaria plausibly could be endemic from the Neolithic era (~12–6.5 kya bp ) in the major river valleys of the North Balkan region, millennia ahead of the Graeco-Roman times (8th century bce to 6th century ce ).  相似文献   

宁夏固原市一次对流性天气的数值模拟     

马思敏  刘晓莉  杨侃  张宏元  朱昱 《干旱气象》2015,33(2)

利用WRF模式和1°×1°的NCEP再分析资料,对2007年7月14日宁夏固原市发生的一次强对流天气进行了数值模拟,并分析了此次强对流天气的有利环流形势、物理量场分布以及雷达回波特征。结果表明:(1)WRF模拟的降水区较实况略偏东南,且降水量偏大;(2)WRF模拟的高层辐散和中低层辐合配置、"喇叭口"探空曲线与对流性降水区较为符合;(3)霰、雪是雨水形成的主要来源,云水又是雪和霰增长的主要来源;(4)云滴数浓度对对流云降水及水成物分布有重要的影响。增加云滴数浓度,前期可使对流云产生的累计降水量和范围均有减少,后期高浓度状况下存在大量冰相粒子,造成累计降水量及范围大于低、中浓度的降水;增加云滴数浓度,云水含量增加,前期雨水、冰晶、霰含量减少,后期雨水、冰晶、霰含量增多。  相似文献   

工作基点的位移对观测点的影响分析     

王小军  林莉  赵军 《测绘工程》2015,(6)

在基坑变形监测工作中,受场地条件的限制,工作基点往往只能埋设在基坑边相对稳定的地方,因此,工作基点也会产生位移。针对在施工现场进行变形观测时工作基点易于发生变动的情况,分析和讨论了工作基点位移的确定以及其位移给观测点带来的影响,提出相应的修正方法,并结合工程实例进行了分析。  相似文献   

中国大陆M_S≥7.0地震与太阳黑子活动之间关系的统计检验     

陈学忠  李艳娥 《地震科学进展》2021,(3):106-111

利用1900—2017年间中国大陆地区64次M_S≥7.0地震资料,根据太阳黑子11年周期变化计算了它们的相位角,分析了它们的相位角分布,利用统计检验方法对它们与太阳黑子11年周期变化之间的关系进行了检验。结果是:中国大陆地区M_S≥7.0地震中约66%发生在太阳黑子11年周期变化的谷值点前2年—后3年的时段内,在α=0.001显著性水平下通过显著性检验。2019年底太阳黑子11年周期变化将达谷值点,因此,2018—2022年为中国大陆地区M_S7.0地震易发时段。   相似文献   

卫星导航接收机中多波束抗干扰技术   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

张星  张昆  毕彦博  王伶  张兆林  吕丽红 《全球定位系统》2012,37(5):46-51

抗干扰是卫星导航接收机中一项重要的技术。提出了一种卫星导航接收机中的新型多波束抗干扰方法,该方法能够较好地兼顾零陷深度与卫星信号增益的矛盾,达到抑制干扰的同时增强卫星信号强度的目的。通过大量仿真实验分析了波束数目、波束分配方式以及波束指向偏差对抗干扰性能的影响。仿真结果和性能分析验证了该方法的有效性和可行性。  相似文献