'Situating' Simulation to Model Human Spatio-Temporal Interactions: An Example Using Crime Events   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Elizabeth R Groff 《Transactions in GIS》2007,11(4):507-530

Many social phenomena have a spatio‐temporal dimension and involve dynamic decisions made by individuals. In the past, researchers have often turned to geographic information systems (GIS) to model these interactions. Although GIS provide a powerful tool for examining the spatial aspects of these interactions, they are unable to model the dynamic, individual‐level interactions across time and space. In an attempt to address these issues, some researchers have begun to use simulation models. But these models rely on artificial landscapes that do not take into account the environment in which humans move and interact. This research presents the methodology for ‘situating’ simulation through the use of a new modeling tool, Agent Analyst, which integrates agent‐based modeling (ABM) and GIS. Three versions of a model of street robbery are presented to illustrate the importance of using ‘real’ data to inform agent activity spaces and movement. The successful implementation of this model demonstrates that: (1) agents can move along existing street networks; (2) land use patterns can be used to realistically distribute agent's homes and activities across a city; and (3) the incidence and pattern of street robberies is significantly different when ‘real’ data are used.  相似文献   

福建GPS台网观测位移时间序列特征的初步研究     

丁学仁  吴绍祖  陈光 《华南地震》2007,27(1):8-14

使用福建GPS台网2004年3月至2006年10月的连续观测资料,对已作卡尔曼滤波后的时间序列观测值进行了初步分析。经数据处理估算各测站的运动速率,对连续观测结果综合分析获得位移,选取区域相对水平位移变化量较小的5个台站组成的一组稳定点作为基准;讨论了各测点连续时间序列与测站运动速率变化特征,除出现一次较明显的分量位移异常变化(可能与台湾强震活动有关)外,没有明显的水平位移异常现象。表明现今福建地壳运动趋势仍十分缓慢且整体较为平稳,是随同中国大陆地块较均匀地向东南方向运动。  相似文献   

0509号台风"麦莎"影响山东分析     

孙兴池  王文毅  王业宏  高慧君  陈金敏 《热带气象学报》2007,23(3):307-312

分析了0509号台风的移动路径、强降水分布及物理量场分布,重点分析台风在安徽突然转向东北和强降水不在中心附近而是偏于中心东北侧的原因。结果表明:副高突然南落及200hPa辐散偏向台风中心右侧是台风在安徽转向进入江苏的原因;台风进入西风带以后没有明显的冷空气侵入;台风进入山东前,半岛大暴雨是由台风右侧东南急流和切变线引起,而台风进入山东境内时,鲁北、鲁中强降水由台风倒槽引起。  相似文献   

0509号台风麦莎影响山东分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

孙兴池  王文毅  王业宏  高慧君  陈金敏 《热带气象学报》2007,23(3):307-312

分析了0509号台风的移动路径、强降水分布及物理量场分布,重点分析台风在安徽突然转向东北和强降水不在中心附近而是偏于中心东北侧的原因。结果表明：副高突然南落及200hPa辐散偏向台风中心右侧是台风在安徽转向进入江苏的原因;台风进入西风带以后没有明显的冷空气侵入;台风进入山东前,半岛大暴雨是由台风右侧东南急流和切变线引起,而台风进入山东境内时,鲁北、鲁中强降水由台风倒槽引起。  相似文献   

滇西重力断层运动时间分布特征的初步研究   总被引：12，自引：11，他引：1  

申重阳  李辉  王琪  游新兆  甘家思  卓力格图 《大地测量与地球动力学》2002,22(2):68-74

地表观测的重复重力数据综合反映了地表观测点的位置变化、地壳内部密度变化和地壳内部构造变形，通过反演这些数据得到的断层位错运动的时间变化综合反映了地壳内部形变和密度变化的耦合运动。为此，利用滇西1985年以来的重复重力观测数据，结合地质调查和地球物理推断结果确定断层运动模型作为约束，并考虑到观测数据和模型粗差，反演获得了滇西主要活动断裂运动的时间变化分布。结果表明，滇西1985－2001年断层运动的时间变化表现出断层往复运动特征，较好地反映了区内Ms≥6.0地震（如1996年丽江Ms7.0地震、1998年宁蒗Ms6.2地震和2000年姚安Ms6.5地震等）的孕育过程。指出强震孕育过程遵循地壳内部密度和地壳形变耦合运动模式（简称DD耦合运动模式），并给出了断层位错DD耦合运动模式的基本图像。  相似文献   

Regional　Tectonic　Deformation　Background　and　Medium-　and　Short-Term　Precursors　to　the　Minle-Shandan　Earthquakes     

Zhang Xi 《中国地震研究》2005,19(1):12-21

INTRODUCTIONOnOctober 2 5,2 0 0 3,twoearthquakesofMS6 .1andMS5.8hitMinleandShandanofGansuProvinceinsuccession (at 38.4°N ,1 0 1 .2°E ;and 38.4°N ,1 0 1 .1°E) .Theseismicfaultisthrustandleft lateraltheMinle DamayingfaultwhichstrikesEWandisaffiliatedtot…  相似文献   

Crustal structure in the Carpatho-Pannonian region: insights from three-dimensional gravity modelling and their geodynamic significance     

Péter Szafián  Frank Horváth 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2006,95(1):50-67

A three-dimensional gravity modelling of the Carpatho-Pannonian region was carried out to get a better image of the Moho boundary and the most prominent intra-crustal density heterogeneities. At first, only the major density boundaries were considered: the bottom of the Tertiary basin fill, the Moho discontinuity and the lithosphere to asthenosphere boundary. Density contrasts were represented by relative densities. The improved density model shows a transitional unit of high density at the base of the crust along the Teisseyre-Tornquist Zone. In the Western Carpathians, an extensive, relatively low-density unit was inferred in mid-crustal levels. The border zone between the Southern Carpathians and the Transylvanian basin is characterized by a sharp, step-like contact of the two crustal units. The Moho configuration reveals important information on the tectonic evolution of the region. Zones of continental collision are represented by thick Moho roots (Eastern Alps, Eastern Carpathians). Transpressional orogenic segments, however, are different: in the Western Carpathians, the Moho is a flat surface; in the Dinarides, a medium Moho root is observed; the Southern Carpathians are characterized by a thick crustal root. The differences are explained with the presence or absence of “subductible” oceanic crust along the Carpathians during the extrusion of Pannonian blocks.  相似文献   

Lateral moisture flow beneath a sandy hillslope without an apparent impeding layer     

James T. McCord  Daniel B. Stephens 《水文研究》1987,1(3):225-238

Part of a small drainage basin on the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge (about 25 km north of Socorro, NM) was intensively instrumented with soil monitoring equipment to estimate natural ground-water recharge. Soil-moisture data were analysed with special attention to characterizing the influence of topography on the direction of vadose water flow paths in fine to medium aeolian sand. Moisture content data were obtained by the neutron scattering technique, and hydraulic head data were obtained using tensiometers. In addition, tracer experiments were conducted on a sandy hillslope to delineate the flow paths of vadose water. The results indicate that there is a strong lateral component to unsaturated flow on a hillslope, even in the absence of apparent sublayers of much lower permeability. Darcian calculations estimate the long-term, steady, deep flux beneath a concave location to be about 4 per cent of an assumed mean annual precipitation of 20 cm. The deep soil water flux downward varied by several orders of magnitude during the 17 month period of record.  相似文献   

Environmental History of Lago di Tovel,Trento, Italy,Revealed by Sediment Cores and 3.5 kHz Seismic Mapping   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Thomas?KulbeEmail author  Flavio?Anselmetti  Marco?Cantonati  Michael?Sturm 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2005,34(3):325-337

Proxy data from a total of 30 sediment cores and information from a seismic survey show that the sedimentological and limnological history of Lago di Tovel (1178 m a.s.l.) has been significantly influenced by slope dynamics of its mountainous catchment. The lake represents a dead-ice lake with pro-glacial deposits at the base of its sedimentary record. A prominent lake level rise in 1597/1598 that increased maximum water depth from ∼20 to 39 m caused slope instabilities, leading to the deposition of mass-flow sediments with a maximum thickness of 2.5 m in the northern part of the lake and less than 50 cm in the southern part, resulting in a total volume of more than 113,000 m³. Consequently, a rough lake bottom morphology was produced, which led to distinct differences in sedimentation rates of 0.07 cm yr⁻¹ on sills and 0.18 cm yr⁻¹ within depressions. The age of the top of the mass-flow deposits was used to validate the ages of the younger, laminated sediments, which were dated by ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs. Lithological investigations showed that the sediments below the mass-flow deposits are also laminated and that they were not bioturbated. The long-term meromixis of Lago di Tovel is therefore mainly due to a combination of its topographic setting and the 5-month period of ice cover. Both prevent effective mixing of the lake by strong winds during spring and autumn. Distinct spatial differences in sediment distribution within the lake show that it is risky to interpret proxy data from only one coring site, even if the lake is very small. This is especially true in mountainous areas, where rock falls, mass movements, and slope instabilities of a significant size may have considerable effects on lakes.  相似文献   

中国大陆现今构造运动的GPS速度场与活动地块   总被引：141，自引：11，他引：130  

张培震  王琪  马宗晋 《地学前缘》2002,9(2):430-441

GPS观测结果给出了在欧亚参考框架下周边板块的运动状态 ,印度板块的运动方向约NE2 0° ,速度是 40～ 42mm/a ;北美板块的运动方向约NW 2 80°～ 2 90° ,速度是 2 1～ 2 3mm/a ;菲律宾板块的运动方向是NW 2 90°～ 310° ,速度是 37～ 45mm/a ;哈萨克—西伯利亚地盾的运动方向约NE130° ,速度是 3～ 5mm/a。GPS所揭示的中国大陆现今运动场清晰地表现出了以活动地块为单元的分块运动特征。文中给出了各主要活动地块的运动方向和速度。大部分活动地块内部结构完整 ,以整体性的运动为主 ;个别活动地块内部发生构造变形 ,地块的整体性不好。中国大陆以活动地块为单元的现今构造变形可能与大陆岩石圈的结构和性质有关 ,上地壳以脆性变形为主 ,下地壳和上地幔以粘塑性的流变为特征 ,从底部驱动着上覆脆性地块的整体运动。  相似文献