A way to synchronize models with seismic faults for earthquake forecasting: Insights from a simple stochastic model     

lvaro Gonzlez  Miguel Vzquez-Prada  Javier B. Gmez  Amalio F. Pacheco 《Tectonophysics》2006,424(3-4):319

Numerical models are starting to be used for determining the future behaviour of seismic faults and fault networks. Their final goal would be to forecast future large earthquakes. In order to use them for this task, it is necessary to synchronize each model with the current status of the actual fault or fault network it simulates (just as, for example, meteorologists synchronize their models with the atmosphere by incorporating current atmospheric data in them). However, lithospheric dynamics is largely unobservable: important parameters cannot (or can rarely) be measured in Nature. Earthquakes, though, provide indirect but measurable clues of the stress and strain status in the lithosphere, which should be helpful for the synchronization of the models.The rupture area is one of the measurable parameters of earthquakes. Here we explore how it can be used to at least synchronize fault models between themselves and forecast synthetic earthquakes. Our purpose here is to forecast synthetic earthquakes in a simple but stochastic (random) fault model. By imposing the rupture area of the synthetic earthquakes of this model on other models, the latter become partially synchronized with the first one. We use these partially synchronized models to successfully forecast most of the largest earthquakes generated by the first model. This forecasting strategy outperforms others that only take into account the earthquake series. Our results suggest that probably a good way to synchronize more detailed models with real faults is to force them to reproduce the sequence of previous earthquake ruptures on the faults. This hypothesis could be tested in the future with more detailed models and actual seismic data.  相似文献   

Microwave-assisted extraction of organochlorine pesticides from sediments and determination by gas chromatograph with electron capture detection     

Rama Mohan Kurakalva Narasimha Murthy Nyasavajhala Phani Homeshwari Mamidi Venkata Anjaiah Kanukuntla 《中国地球化学学报》2006,25(B08):202-203

A simple and rapid procedure to extract organochlorine pesticides （OCPs） from sediments by means of microwave energy is proposed. Sediment samples were irradiated with microwaves in a closed vessel system while immersed in hexane-acetone （1 ： 1, v/v）. The sample extracts were cleaned up using solid phase extraction with Florisil as adsorbent. Pesticides were eluted with hexane-ethyl acetate （80 ： 20, v/v） and determined by gas chromatographic separation with electron capture detection. Three oven programs were assayed with two different solvent mixtures in order to achieve adequate experimental conditions for the complete extraction of organochlorine pesticides from the matrix. Different variables such as the composition of extraction solvent,  相似文献   

Speciation analysis and significance of ecological geochemistry     

Yaping WANG Chunxue XU Ziyi AN Suming WANG 《中国地球化学学报》2006,25(B08):205-205

Different species of one element have different activities, so it has different effects on environment and human health. To analyze qualitatively and quantitatively the speciation of a special element in sample, which is the important basis for appraising the toxicity and studying the rule of transfer and translation of elements. Since the 1970＇s, the scheme of sequential extraction has already been used at many laboratories both at home and abroard, to get the information about heavy metals＇ activity in polluted soils. Because this method has the experimental nature, many schemes of problem has taken place, the absence of consistency of these sequential extraction have been formed. Thus the complexity of the schemes, the lack of selectivity of reagent, the lack of quality control, the result mainly related to the extraction scheme used, and so on. In the face of these problems, the study of experimental methods of sequential extraction on three different soils, sediment in Dongting Lake, soil in Jiangsu Province and loess in Shanxi Province was made. Reference materials of heavy metal speciation following sequential extraction in soil and sediment had been developed. Nowadays two kinds of sequential extraction methods which are widely used are BCR （three steps） and improved Tessier methods （seven steps）. Based on three steps of BCR, water-soluble speciation and the residual speciation were increased in our research. BCR701 was determined eight times at different laboratories using BCR three steps. The results showed that determined data obtained eight times were identical to the standard value, and it is indicated that this method has good reproducibility. The stability and homogeneity experiments indicated that the preparation of three types of candidates accorded with our requirements. Eight laboratories had afforded the determined values of 12 heavy metal elements （Cu, Pb, Zn, Mn, Co, Ni, Cd, Cr, Mo, As, Sb, Hg, Se et al.） using BCR three steps. Also, these three candidates afforded the determined values by seven steps, and 12 laboratories had participated.  相似文献   

Assessment of mercury mobility and bioavailability by fractionation method in sediments from coastal zone inundated by the 26 December 2004 tsunami in Thailand     

Leonard Boszke  Artur Kowalski  Witold Szczuciński  Grzegorz Rachlewicz  Stanisław Lorenc  Jerzy Siepak 《Environmental Geology》2006,51(4):527-536

The 26 December 2004 tsunami covered significant portion of a coastal zone with a blanket of potentially contaminated sediments. In this report are presented results on mercury concentrations in sediments deposited by the tsunami in a coastal zone of Thailand. Since the total mercury concentrations are insufficient to assess mercury mobility and bioavailability in sediment, its fractionation was applied. Sediments were sampled within 50 days after the event and analyzed by sequential extraction method. The procedure of sequential extraction involved five subsequent stages performed with solutions of chloroform, deionized water, 0.5 M HCl, 0.2 M NaOH, and aqua regia. The mean concentration of total mercury in sediments was 119 ± 50 ng g⁻¹ dry mass (range 66–230). The fractionation revealed that mercury is mainly bound to the least bioavailable sulphides 75 ± 6% (range 62–86), organomercury compounds 14 ± 7% (range 4–26), and humic matter 9 ± 7% (range 1–27). The lowest contributions bring fractions of water-soluble mercury 0.8 ± 1.0% (range 0.1–3.6) and acid soluble mercury 0.9 ± 0.5% (range 0.2–2.1). Although, the total mercury content is similar in a reference sample and in the tsunami sediments, the highly toxic organomercury fraction contribution is higher in the latter. The results were compared with chemical and sedimentological properties of the sediments but no significant correlations were obtained between them.  相似文献   

Distribution of cadmium, chromium, copper, lead and zinc in marine sediments in Hong Kong waters     

S. C. Choi  Onyx W. H. Wai  Thomas W. H. Choi  X. D. Li  C. W. Tsang 《Environmental Geology》2006,51(3):455-461

Partitioning of heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Zn) in marine sediments collected from various sites in Hong Kong waters were determined using sequential extraction method. Sediments from Kellette Bank, located in Victoria Harbour, had higher metal concentrations especially Cu and Zn than most other sites. Slightly over 20% of total Cu and Cr existed as readily available forms in Peng Chau and Kellette Bank. At most sampling sites, over 15% of the Cu existed as the exchangeable form indicating that Cu could be readily released into the aqueous phase from sediments. A significantly higher percentage of Pb and Zn was associated with the three non-residual fractions. Hence, there is a greater environmental concern for remobilization of Pb and Zn compared with Cr. The high amount of residual Cd (>50%) and the relatively lower Cd content indicate that little environmental concern is warranted for the remobilization of Cd. Distribution of metals in sediments collected from different depth at Kellette Bank shows that metal concentrations decreased with profile depth. The levels of Pb and Zn associated with the two readily available fractions increased sharply in the surface sediment. These metals represented the pollutants, which were introduced into the area in the mid-eighties through early nineties as a result of rapid economic and industrial development in the territory. As significant portions of these metals were bound to the readily available phases in the surface sediments, metal remobilization could be a concern. An erratum to this article can be found at  相似文献   

Vertical variation of phosphorus forms in surface sediments from Wuli Bay, Taihu Lake, China   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

李军  刘丛强  王仕禄  朱兆洲  周志华  肖化云 《中国地球化学学报》2006,25(3):279-284

1IntroductionPhosphorus,an essential nutrient for the primaryproductivity in freshwater systems,is an important fac-tor controlling lacustrine eutrophication.Although ex-ternal input of phosphorus has been assumed as the vi-tal responsibility for the eutrophication of lakes(ZhuJun et al.,2005),the remobilization of phosphorus insediments has a distinct influence on it as well(Bostr m et al.,1982).The concentrations of totalphosphorus(Ptotal)in the sediments are often related tothe trophic st…  相似文献   

关于国土资源数据共享分类的思考   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

汪志强 《国土资源信息化》2005,(1):10-13,31

数据共享分类是制定数据共享政策和数据资源开发利用规划的一项基础性工作。本文 提出国土资源数据共享分类的意义、原则和方法,探讨建立以数据共享分类为核心的 国土资源数据分类体系,以期为全面开展国土资源数据共享分类提供参考。  相似文献   

基于广义Hough变换的不规则形状目标提取方法   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

刘德刚余旭初  张鹏强 《测绘学院学报》2005,22(2):125-127

提出了一种基于广义Hough变换的不规则形状目标的提取方法。该方法主要包括目标参数描述和目标提取两部分。实验表明，该方法精度好、效率高。  相似文献   

三维遥感影像数据库系统的研究与实现   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

陈建明  孙卫东 《新疆地质》2005,23(3):308-310

介绍了以3S技术为手段，采用目前较为先进的三层结构体系，使用Dephi开发工具，结合数据库技术、遥感技术，尝试以数据库SQL Server组织、存储、管理海量的中巴资源卫星遥感影像数据和新疆1：10万地形矢量数据，应用OpenGL技术实现海量三维遥感影像数据的三维立体显示浏览，进而完成全疆三维遥感影像库建库和三维显示及漫游．  相似文献   

环境样品中痕量元素的化学形态分析Ⅰ．分析技术在化学形态分析中的应用   总被引：21，自引：7，他引：21  

何红蓼 李冰杨红霞  倪哲明 《岩矿测试》2005,24(1):51-58

文章介绍了形态分析的基本概念,常用的联用分析技术,如气相色谱原子吸收光谱、气相色谱原子荧光光谱、气相色谱微波诱导等离子体原子发射光谱、气相色谱电感耦合等离子体质谱、高效液相色谱电感耦合等离子体质谱等在环境样品(水、土壤、沉积物)中痕量元素化学形态(价态、金属有机化合物等)分析中的应用,土壤和沉积物中污染元素的顺序提取步骤,以形态分析发展动态。引用文献72篇。  相似文献