Temporal behavior of the background seismicity rate in central Japan, 1998 to mid-2003   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yoshiki Tsukakoshi  Kunihiko Shimazaki 《Tectonophysics》2006,417(1-2):155

We studied the temporal behavior of the background shallow seismicity rate in 700 circular areas across inland Japan. To search for and test the significance of the possible rate changes in background seismicity, we developed an efficient computational method that applies the space–time ETAS model proposed by Ogata in 1998 to the areas. Also, we conducted Monte Carlo tests using a simulated catalog to validate the model we applied. Our first finding was that the activation anomalies were found so frequently that the constant background seismicity hypothesis may not be appropriate and/or the triggered event model with constraints on the parameters may not adequately describe the observed seismicity. However, quiescence occasionally occurs merely by chance. Another outcome of our study was that we could automatically find several anomalous background seismicity rate changes associated with the occurrence of large earthquakes. Very significant seismic activation was found before the M6.1 Mt. Iwate earthquake of 1998. Also, possible seismic quiescence was found in an area 150 km southwest of the focal region of the M7.3 Western Tottori earthquake of 2000. The seismicity rate in the area recovered after the mainshock.  相似文献   

The Tornquist Zone, a north east inclining lithospheric transition at the south western margin of the Baltic Shield: Revealed through a nonlinear teleseismic tomographic inversion     

P. Voss  K. Mosegaard  S. Gregersen  TOR Working Group 《Tectonophysics》2006,416(1-4):151

From July 1996 to August 1997 the TOR project operated 130 seismographs in North Germany, Denmark and South Sweden, with the aim of collecting signals from local, regional and teleseismic earthquakes. This data set is particularly interesting since the seismic antenna crosses the most significant geological boundary in Europe, the Tornquist Zone, which in the northern part is the border between the Baltic Shield and the younger European lithosphere. Previous studies have shown significant physical changes in the crust and upper mantle across this transition zone, including two independent teleseismic tomographic studies of the TOR data set. But these two studies disagree on the orientation of the slope of the transition. Both studies used an iterative linearized inversion method. We will in this work Preprint submitted to Elsevier Science 27 July 2005 present an inversion based on Bayesian statistics, where the solution space is examined in order to study a very large number of tomographic solutions and to examine the solution uniqueness and uncertainty. The method is applied to measurements of 3345 relative teleseismic P-phase travel times from 48 teleseismic earthquakes with good azimuthal coverage with respect to the great circle arc of the TOR array. We find the lithospheric transition to be a north east inclination of around 30° to 45° off vertical.  相似文献   

Computer simulation studies of Crystallization under confinement conditions     

Fernando Bresme  Luis G. Cmara 《Chemical Geology》2006,230(3-4):197-206

Crystallization under confinement conditions is a very important process in geochemistry and geophysics. Computer simulations of fluids in nanometer scale pore spaces can provide a unique microscopic insight into the structure, dynamics and forces arising from the crystallization process. We discuss in this paper molecular dynamics computer simulations of crystallization in pores of nanometer dimensions. The crystallization pressure due to the freezing of a model of Argon in a nanopore is computed using molecular dynamics simulations. We also investigate the influence of pore geometry in determining the dynamics of confined fluids, as well as mass separation in binary mixtures. It turns out that the pore geometry reveals itself as an important variable, leading to 1) new mechanisms for fast diffusion in confined spaces, and 2) accumulation of solute in specific regions inside the pore.  相似文献   

Bayesian Spatial Modelling of Gamma Ray Count Data     

Daniela Leonte  David J. Nott 《Mathematical Geology》2006,38(2):135-154

Gamma ray logging is a method routinely employed by geophysicists and environmental engineers in site geology evaluations. Modelling of gamma ray data from individual boreholes assists in the local identification of major lithological changes; modelling these data from a network of boreholes assists with lithological mapping and spatial stratigraphic correlation. In this paper we employ Bayesian spatial partition models to analyse gamma ray data spatially. In particular, a spatial partition is defined via a Voronoi tessellation and the mean intensity is assumed constant in each cell of the partition. The number of vertices generating the tessellation as well as the locations of vertices are assumed unknown, and uncertainty about these quantities is described via a hierarchical prior distribution. We describe the advantages of the spatial partition modelling approach in the context of smoothing gamma ray count data and describe an implementation that may be extended to the fitting of a more general model than a constant mean within each cell of the partition. As an illustration of the methodology we consider a data set collected from a network of eight boreholes, which is part of a geophysical study to assist in mapping the lithology of a site. Gamma ray logs are linked with geological information from cores and the spatial analysis of log data assists with predicting the lithology at unsampled locations.  相似文献   

Evolution of the Bonneville shoreline scarp in west-central Utah: Comparison of scarp-analysis methods and implications for the diffusion model of hillslope evolution     

J.D. Pelletier  S.B. DeLong  A.H. Al-Suwaidi  M. Cline  Y. Lewis  J.L. Psillas  B. Yanites 《Geomorphology》2006,74(1-4):257-270

Wave-cut pluvial shoreline scarps are ideal natural experiments in hillslope evolution because the ages of these scarps are often precisely known and because they form with a range of heights, alluvial textures, and microclimates (i.e., orientation). Previous work using midpoint-slope methods on pluvial scarps in the Basin and Range concluded that scarp evolution is nonlinear and microclimatically controlled. The purpose of this study was to further examine the influence of scarp height, texture and microclimate in an attempt to calibrate a nonlinear model of scarp evolution. To do this, over 150 profiles of the Bonneville shoreline in the adjacent Snake and Tule Valleys, west-central Utah were collected and analyzed by fitting the entire scarp profile to diffusion-equation solutions, taking into account uncertainty in the initial scarp angle. In contrast to previous studies, this analysis revealed no evidence for nonlinearity or microclimatic control. To understand the reason for this discrepancy, we undertook a systematic study of the accuracy of each scarp-analysis method. The midpoint-slope-inverse method was found to yield biased results, with systematically higher diffusion ages for young, tall scarps. The slope-offset method is unbiased but has limited resolution because it requires many scarp profiles to yield a single diffusion age. A method that incorporates the full scarp profile and uncertainty in the initial scarp angle was found to be the most accurate technique. The application of the full-scarp method to the Bonneville shoreline supports the use of a linear diffusion model for scarps up to 20 m in height. Scarp orientation had no discernable effect on diffusivity values. Soil texture was found to have a weak but significant inverse relationship with diffusivity values.  相似文献   

大别山双河超高压变质矿物O同位素平衡及其对Sm-Nd和Rb-Sr等时线年龄有效性的制约     

赵子福郑永飞  李曙光龚冰 《岩石学报》2005,21(4):1243-1254

对于变质岩 Sm-Nd 和 Rh-Sr 同位素年代学来说,其中一个重要问题是等时线矿物之间在一特定的变质事件过程中是否达到并在随后保持同位素平衡。矿物 O 同位素地质测温也是如此。由于许多情况下 Nd、Sr 和 O 在变质矿物中的扩散速率具有可比性,变质矿物之间 O 同位素平衡状况能够为矿物 Sm-Nd 和 Rb-Sr 内部等时线定年结果的有效性提供制约。为了验证其适用性,本文对大别造山带双河超高压榴辉岩和片麻岩 Sm-Nd 和 Rh-Sr 等时线矿物进行了 O 同位素地质测温。尽管Sm-Nd 等时线给出一致的三叠纪年龄(213～238Ma),同一样品 Rb-Sr 等时线却给出侏罗纪年龄(171～174Ma)。片麻岩、榴辉岩和榴闪岩矿物对 O 同位素测温得到600～720℃和420～550℃两组温度,分别对应于约225±5Ma 榴辉岩相变质和约 175±5Ma 角闪岩相退变质条件下停止同位素扩散交换的温度。同一样品三叠纪 Sm-Nd 等时线年龄的保存、侏罗纪 Rh-Sr 等时线年龄的出现以及有规律的 O 同位素温度,表明在角闪岩相退变质过程中,Sr 和 O 在含水矿物(如黑云母和角闪石)中的扩散速率在手标本尺度上比石榴石 Nd 和多硅白云母 Sr 的扩散速率快。在退变质作用过程中,等时线矿物之间的初始同位素比值均一化速率主要受扩散速率慢的矿物控制,而矿物等时线时钟的启动主要受具有高母/子体比值的矿物控制。只有当高母/子体比值矿物具有快的放射成因同位素扩散速率时,才能够应用合理的矿物等时线确定变质再造的时间。  相似文献   

Hindsight and Foresight     

N. E. Busch  L. Kristensen 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2002,105(3):369-388

  相似文献   

Particle size dependent response of aerosol counters     

A. Ankilov  A. Baklanov  M. Colhoun  K. -H. Enderle  J. Gras  Yu. Julanov  D. Kaller  A. Lindner  A. A. Lushnikov  R. Mavliev  F. McGovern  T. C. O'Connor  J. Podzimek  O. Preining  G. P. Reischl  R. Rudolf  G. J. Sem  W. W. Szymanski  A. E. Vrtala  P. E. Wagner  W. Winklmayr  V. Zagaynov 《Atmospheric Research》2002,62(3-4)

During an international workshop at the Institute for Experimental Physics of the University of Vienna, Austria, which was coordinated within the Committee on Nucleation and Atmospheric Aerosols (IAMAS-IUGG), 10 instruments for aerosol number concentration measurement were studied, covering a wide range of methods based on various different measuring principles. In order to investigate the detection limits of the instruments considered with respect to particle size, simultaneous number concentration measurements were performed for monodispersed aerosols with particle sizes ranging from 1.5 to 50 nm diameter and various compositions.The instruments considered show quite different response characteristics, apparently related to the different vapors used in the various counters to enlarge the particles to an optically detectable size. A strong dependence of the 50% cutoff diameter on the particle composition in correlation with the type of vapor used in the specific instrument was found. An enhanced detection efficiency for ultrafine hygroscopic sodium chloride aerosols was observed with water operated systems, an analogous trend was found for n-butanol operated systems with nonhygroscopic silver and tungsten oxide particles.  相似文献   

Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure using an integrated GIS Monte Carlo simulation approach   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

G. Zhou  T. Esaki  Y. Mitani  M. Xie  J. Mori 《Engineering Geology》2003,68(3-4):373-386

Spatial probabilistic modeling of slope failure using a combined Geographic Information System (GIS), infinite-slope stability model and Monte Carlo simulation approach is proposed and applied in the landslide-prone area of Sasebo city, southern Japan. A digital elevation model (DEM) for the study area has been created at a scale of 1/2500. Calculated results of slope angle and slope aspect derived from the DEM are discussed. Through the spatial interpolation of the identified stream network, the thickness distribution of the colluvium above Tertiary strata is determined with precision. Finally, by integrating an infinite-slope stability model and Monte Carlo simulation with GIS, and applying spatial processing, a slope failure probability distribution map is obtained for the case of both low and high water levels.  相似文献   

Smoothing and Change Point Detection for Gamma Ray Count Data   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Daniela Leonte  David J. Nott  William T. M. Dunsmuir 《Mathematical Geology》2003,35(2):175-194

Gamma ray detectors are used to measure the natural radioactivity of rocks. For a number of boreholes drilled at a site the gamma ray detector is lowered into each borehole and counts of gamma ray emissions at different depths are recorded as the instrument is gradually raised to ground level. The profile of gamma counts can be informative about the geology at each location. The raw count data are highly variable, and in this paper we describe the use of adaptive smoothing techniques and change point models in order to identify changes in the geology based on the gamma logs. We formulate all our models for the data in the framework of the class of generalized linear models, and describe computational methods for Bayesian inference and model selection for generalized linear models that improve on existing techniques. Application is made to gamma ray data from the Castelreagh Waste Management Centre which served as a hazardous waste disposal facility for the Sydney region between March 1974 and August 1998. Understanding the geological structure of this site is important for further modelling the transport of pollutants beneath the waste disposal area.  相似文献