回归分析在震磁关系研究中的应用     

蒙和平  兰宁 《内陆地震》1992,6(1):89-98

通过相关分析北京、兰州、银川、红山地磁台地磁垂直分量Z(世界时13—14时)时均值资料(每两台相组合,以月为统计单位),得相关系数R和回归系数b。经统计检验,发现不同台站的R、b大小虽有差异,但正常情况下均在其置信区间变化(置信概率0.95)。几次中强震前,b、R大幅度下降,连续偏离其控制区间,至临震前1—2月或当月趋于恢复或完全恢复。对不同台组的垂直分量差ΔZ与时间作回归分析(ΔZ为时间t的函数),得不同台站的线性回归方程及相关系数R。正常情况下ΔZ在回归方程的置信区间变化(置信概率0.95),当地磁台附近孕育中强以上地震时,ΔZ明显偏离回归方程的控制区间。应用以上两种方法对80年代以来宁夏及其邻区的六次中强地震作了对应效果检验,并对发现的问题作了简略探讨。  相似文献   

乌鲁木齐—沙湾一带地震活动特点的初步研究     

胡才荣 《内陆地震》1992,(1)

采用b值时间扫描及地震复发周期等统计方法,对乌鲁木齐至沙湾一带1977年以来的地震观测资料进行了计算分析。初步结果表明:研究区域内5.0级以上中强地震发生前,b值均出现不同程度的负异常。利用地震复发周期计算公式和未来地震震级定量计算公式,得到区内不同震级区间的平均复发周期及今后2年左右可能发生的最大地震震级。  相似文献   

山西地震带历史地震序列的极大熵谱分析     

彭美煊 《内陆地震》1992,6(3):246-251

综述了极大熵谱分析的原理及Burg递推算法,选取应变能∑E_1~(1/2)地震活动度∑A_1为采样序列,对三个时段的资料进行了极大熵谱分析。结果表明;两个序列所得结果较为一致。山西地震带中强震活动和华北中强震活动同步变化,且主要受321年和347年显著周期控制。其35年和66年短周期活动与太阳活动和地球自转31年和60年长周期较接近,表明地震活动在总体上受太阳活动与地球自转速率变化控制,短周期成份反映了发生地震地区应力场能量积累和释放的特点。  相似文献   

菏泽5.9级地震前后水准测量与承压水变化关系的研究     

王瑞田  赵宪超 《内陆地震》1992,6(4):383-387

利用深层承压水头观测结果,对东明——菏泽长水准测线8——9号测段的高差变化进行了回归计算和相关分析。认为菏泽市城区9号测点下沉的主要原因是受深层承压水头变化的影响。排除地下水影响因素后证实,1983年11月7日菏泽5.9级地震前后仅3mm左右的升降变化,表明9号测点对这次中强地震仅能反映微弱的形变信息量。  相似文献   

The experimental study of acoustic emission during creep of rocks     

Peiling Lü  Kaitong Wu  Yuanbi Jiao  Jihan Li  Xiaohong Liu 《地震学报(英文版)》1992,5(1):169-176

Under normal temperature, the creep experiments with complete samples of Gabbro and Marble rocks are made under uniaxial compression. It is found that at the instantaneous creeping stage, AE activities increase with loading; at the steady creeping stage, large AE signals may appear at lower background of AE action, andm—value which shows the relationship between AE amplitude and frequency keeps stable on the low value or decreases; at the accelerate creeping stage, AE activities increase andm—value decreases quickly or decreases again after recovery. These experimental results are related to the quality of the samples. In this paper, AE activities during three stages of creeping process are connected with the seismic patterns (for exampleb—value, foreshocks). Finally, it is pointed out the possibility that the foreshock—mainshock—aftershock earthquake sequence has been formed by the mechanism of creep fracture of crustal rocks. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 104–112, 1991. This subject is sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.  相似文献   

The expert system for earthquake prediction (I)—the overall design and main structure     

Biquan Wang  Zuyin Chen  Shutian Ma  Hongshun Fan 《地震学报(英文版)》1992,5(3):447-457

The Expert System For Earthquake Prediction (ESEP) is summarized in this paper. ESEP embraces three subsystems: long-middle term prediction system, annual prediction system and middle-short term prediction system. Each of the subsystems is composed of seven modules: the controlling module, the data base module, the expert knowledge base module, the method base module, the fact preparation module, the reasoning and decision-making module and the plotting and displaying module. The reasoning model ESEP/R and the knowledge expression model ESEP/K are set up in the ESEP, and new evidence combinations, CON (confine), W (weigh), and SYN (synthesize), have been proposed. The distinctive features of the ESEP are: (1) systemized; (2) several experts’ knowledge can be synthesized; (3) a large amount of data and experts’ experience is embraced; (4) four reasoning models and the synthetic decision-making technic are adopted; (5) several software environments are used; (6) modularization; and (7) possessing the friendly user interfaces. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, 1–8, 1992.  相似文献   

The experimental research on b value of AE for the rock specimens with pre-existing crack or notch under uniaxial compression     

Hong Li  Xiangchu Yin  Shiyu Li  Jihan Li 《地震学报(英文版)》1992,5(4):867-875

A lot of researches onb value have been made in seismology. Since the 1960’s Mogi, Scholz and others have studied AE of rock specimens in laboratory and discovered that it is related to natural earthquakes. All former researchers used integral specimens to studyb value in the laboratory. However a major earthquake is usually related to a existing seismic-fault in that area. For this reason, a series of fracture experiments with rock and glass specimens having pre-existing crack or notch is performed in order to examine the effect of preexisting crack tob value. The experimental results show that theb value begins to decrease as soon as the initiation of the crack and finally drop to a very low value when the specimen breaks unstably. Based on these, a brief discussion on the possible mechanism ofb value change for natural earthquakes is given. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,9, 393–400, 1987. Projects sponsored by the Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation.  相似文献   

Statistical analysis of seismic data from north-western and western Argentina     

A. M. Osella  N. C. Sabbione  D. C. Cernadas 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1992,139(2):277-292

Due to the process of subduction of the Nazca Plate, high seismic activity is observed near the Argentine Andean range between 21°S and 36°S. The new version of the Argentine Seismic Catalogue, which includes well-defined events during the period 1964–1989, allows us to perform an analysis of seismic risk.Earthquakes with epicenters in the provinces included in the north-western and western regions were studied using Gumbel III extreme value distribution. Modal extreme magnitudes and return periods were calculated for both regions and the results were compard with the ones obtained through the entire process techniques (both analytical and graphical).As a first study, we analyzed each province separately, after which mean values for each region were obtained. Modal values around 5–5.5 have been found and times of recurrence for events withm _b >6 of approximately 25 years were obtained.Also at CONICET (Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Cientificas y Técnicas).  相似文献   

Moment tensor inversion of some aftershocks of the April 18, 1985 Luquan earthquake of Yunnan Province, China     

Jiangchuan Ni  Yuntai Chen  Ming Wang  Mingxi Wu  Jiayu Zhou  Peide Wang  Francis T. Wu 《地震学报(英文版)》1992,5(3):459-467

Based on the three component accelerograms, recorded at near-field distance by a temporary seismic network consisting of digital cassette tape recording accelerographs, the focal mechanisms of three aftershocks of the April 18, 1985, Luquan, Yunnan Province, China, earthquake ofM _S=6.1, are calculated using seismic moment tensor inversion technique. The phases of direct P, S and converted SP waves in the displacement seismograms, produced by twice integrations of the observed accelerograms, are identified via forward calculation using Green’s functions for homogeneous semi-infinite elastic medium, and used in the inversion. The results of inversion show that a better fit of synthetic to the observed seismograms of direct as well as converted phases can be achieved if appropriate weighting functions are used in solving the over definite linear equations. While these aftershocks are of different magnitudes (M _L=4.8, 3.2 and 3.5, respectively) and hypocentral locations, their focal mechanisms are very similar and consistent with that of the main shock. This feature demonstrates the intrinsic correlation between the occurrence of aftershocks and the seismogenic fault of main shock. Our experimentations show that using the near field accelerogram obtained from the digital seismic network with appropriate azimuthal coverage on the focal sphere, with the aid of even simple medium model, not only the shear dislocation source, but also the isotropic part and CLVD (compensated linear vector dipole) can be retrieved by the technique of moment tensor inversion. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 412–419, 1991. This work is supported by the Chinese Joint Seismological Sciences Foundation and the Western Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Test Site (WYEPTS), State Seismological Bureau.  相似文献   

澜沧—耿马地震主震参数     

李立平  刘宜兵 《地震研究》1992,15(4):366-372

本文用下关地震台数字地震仪的主震加速度记录,结合澜沧——耿马地震的宏观考察资料,以波谱法为基础,分别计算了两个主震的运动学、静力学和动力学参数各18个。用以从微观地震学角度描述澜沧——耿马地震的两个主震。通过所求参数的分析对比,认为是澜沧主震触发了耿马主震。  相似文献