1960-2011年洞庭湖区年降水量变化特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

黄菊梅  邹用昌  彭嘉栋  蔡海朝  覃鸿 《气象与环境学报》2013,29(6):81-86

以洞庭湖区24个气象站1960-2011年的降水量资料为基础数据,利用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall突变检验法、小波分析等方法分析了洞庭湖区年降水量的变化特征,并采用正交分解函数EOF、旋转正交分解函数REOF计算了洞庭湖区年尺度的标准化降水指数（SPI）,分析了洞庭湖区的旱涝时空分布特征。结果表明：洞庭湖区年降水量空间上由北向南逐渐增加,时间上没有显著变化趋势。1963年洞庭湖年降水量发生突变。洞庭湖区年降水量存在6a、9a和16-17a振荡周期。洞庭湖区旱涝频繁,极端气候事件有增加的趋势。洞庭湖区年降水量在空间上具有较好的一致性,为普遍干旱或洪涝,但也存在南北反相变化即南部干旱北部洪涝或南部洪涝北部干旱的特点。洞庭湖区年降水量存在南部、西北部和中部3个异常气候区。  相似文献   

Climatic change and rainfall patterns: Effects on semi-arid plant communities of the Iberian Southeast     

J.D. Miranda  C. Armas  F.M. Padilla  F.I. Pugnaire 《Journal of Arid Environments》2011,75(12):1302-1309

The structure and functioning of semi-arid ecosystems are strongly influenced by precipitation patterns. Water availability in such environments is highly pulsed, and discrete rainfall events interspersed with drought periods are important components of the annual water supply. Plant communities do not only respond to rainfall quantity, but also to variations in time, so that relatively small changes in rainfall frequency (i.e., pulsed inputs) may have strong effects on communities. Within the Mediterranean basin, climate change models forecast a decrease in mean annual precipitation and more extreme events (i.e., less rainy days and longer drought periods between events), along with seasonal changes. However, little is known on the consequences of these future precipitation changes on plant communities, especially in semi-arid environments. Here, we summarize the few experiments that have manipulated rainfall patterns in arid and semi-arid areas worldwide, and introduce the first results of a pioneer, long-term rainfall exclusion in the semi-arid southeast region of the Iberian Peninsula. The experiment is not only manipulating the amount of rainfall, but also its frequency and seasonal distribution in a grassland-shrubland in the Tabernas desert (Almería, Spain). This work monitored the effect of precipitation changes on different ecosystem processes for five years, at the species and community level, concluding that this plant community (as other communities studied in the same area) exhibited great resilience to changes in rainfall availability, likely caused by plant adaptation to large intra- and inter-annual precipitation variability.  相似文献   

Climatic response of Picea crassifolia tree-ring parameters and precipitation reconstruction in the western Qilian Mountains, China     

F. Chen  Y. Yuan  W. Wei 《Journal of Arid Environments》2011,75(11):1121-1128

Cores of thick leaf spruce from the western Qilian Mountains were subjected to densitometric analysis to obtain data for seven tree-ring parameters (tree-ring width, earlywood width, latewood width, maximum density, minimum density, mean earlywood density and mean latewood density). The chronologies were analyzed individually and then compared with each other. Most of these variables show moderately high values of common variance and mean interseries correlation except latewood and maximum densities. The relationships between the different tree-ring parameters and climate data are also presented. The growth/climate response analyses reveal that the radial growth of thick leaf spruce is the mainly controlled by total annual precipitation (July-June). Herein the residual ring width chronology was used to reconstruct annual (July-June) precipitation of Jiuquan for the period 1768-2009 A.D., and it accounted for 45.0% of the precipitation variance. Multi-taper spectral analysis reveals the existence of significant 11.1-year, 4.9-year, and 2.0- to 3.4-year periods of variability. Spatial analysis shows that the precipitation of Jiuquan has strong common signals for the northern margin of the Tibetan Plateau and Hexi Corridor. Drought events in our reconstruction are compared to the historical archives and other moisture-sensitive tree ring width series in the Hexi Corridor. The results reveal common climatic extremes over much of the Hexi Corridor. Many of these events have had profound impacts on the peoples of the Hexi Corridor over the past several centuries.  相似文献   

北京地区旱涝变化规律及其预测试验   总被引：6，自引：1，他引：5  

黄嘉佑 《地理学报》1990,45(1):102-109

本文提出用年旱涝指数来研究气候变化规律,具有一定的物理意义及代表性。对北京地区旱涝变化规律分析表明:有5年及22年周期变化规律。 在旱涝预测方面,本文还提出一种新的时间序列预测方法——周期模式法,它较之传统的方差分析方法具有较多的优越性。用它对北京地区年度旱涝趋势作预测试验。  相似文献   

Application of spatial EOF and multivariate time series model for evaluating agricultural drought vulnerability in Korea     

Dae Ha Kim  Tae-Woong Kim 《Advances in water resources》2011,34(3):340-350

This study proposed a methodology using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and multivariate time series model for the analysis of drought both in time and space. The methodology proposed was then applied to evaluate the vulnerability of agricultural drought of major river basins in Korea. First, the three-month SPI data from 59 rain gauge stations over the Korean Peninsula were analyzed by deriving and spatially characterizing the EOFs. The shapes of major estimated EOFs were found to well reflect the observed spatial pattern of droughts. Second, the coefficient time series of estimated EOFs were then fitted by a multivariate time series model to generate the SPI data for 10,000 years, which were used to derive the annual maxima series of areal average drought severity over the Korean Peninsula. These annual maxima series were then analyzed to determine the mean drought severity for given return periods. Four typical spatial patterns of drought severity could also be selected for those return periods considered. This result shows that the southern part of the Korean Peninsula is most vulnerable to drought than the other parts. Finally, the agricultural drought vulnerability was evaluated by considering the potential water supply from dams. In an ideal case, when all the maximum dam storage was assumed to be assigned to agriculture, all river basins in Korea were found to have the potential to overcome a 30-year drought. However, under more realistic conditions considering average dam storage and water allocation priorities, most of the river basins could not overcome a 30-year drought.  相似文献   

2009年1月-2010年4月我国地气系统的演变分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

邓国卫  汤懋苍  郭维栋 《高原气象》2011,30(5):1274-1278

利用2009年1月-2010年4月地震、3.2m地温、降水场资料对该时段地气系统的演变特征进行了分析,解释了其气候变化原因,并初步估计2010年全国汛期降水形势。结果表明,强震是破坏＂正多负少规则＂的重要因素,震前的孕震三步曲、震后两强震连线中点的拍频涡及强震后准半年周期性干旱共同组成了影响2009年气候异常的控制系统...  相似文献   

对“08．10—09．01”山西省异常干旱成因的探讨     

李斯荣  贺耀武  高源  张亚平 《山西气象》2011,(1):26-28

本文利用NCEP再分析资料和山西省实测降水资料（1961年－2000年）,定性、定量地分析东亚水汽分布、水汽输送与山西省2008年10月中旬至2009年1月底干旱的关系,得出山西省上空低层大气的含水量偏少是该时期干旱的一个重要因素。由于青藏高原大地形作用,孟加拉湾和南海的水汽北上受阻,不能到达山西省是形成山西省干旱的又一原因。受大气环流影响,山西省水汽辐合偏弱也是此次干旱的重要原因之一。  相似文献   

Drought Forecasting in a Semi-arid Watershed Using Climate Signals:a Neuro-fuzzy Modeling Approach   总被引：6，自引：3，他引：3  

Bahram CHOUBIN  Shahram KHALIGHI-SIGAROODI  Arash MALEKIAN  Sajjad AHMAD  Pedram ATTAROD 《山地科学学报》2014,(6):1593-1605

Large-scale annual climate indices were used to forecast annual drought conditions in the Maharlu-Bakhtegan watershed,located in Iran,using a neuro-fuzzy model.The Standardized Precipitation Index（SPI） was used as a proxy for drought conditions.Among the 45 climate indices considered,eight identified as most relevant were the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation（AMO）,Atlantic Meridional Mode（AMM）,the Bivariate ENSO Time series（BEST）,the East Central Tropical Pacific Surface Temperature（NINO 3.4）,the Central Tropical Pacific Surface Temperature（NINO 4）,the North Tropical Atlantic Index（NTA）,the Southern Oscillation Index（SOI）,and the Tropical Northern Atlantic Index（TNA）.These indices accounted for 81% of the variance in the Principal Components Analysis（PCA） method.The Atlantic surface temperature（SST：Atlantic） had an inverse relationship with SPI,and the AMM index had the highest correlation.Drought forecasts of neuro-fuzzy model demonstrate better prediction at a two-year lag compared to a stepwise regression model.  相似文献   

基于ArcGIS Server水利信息管理与服务系统设计与实现     

左文娜  禄丰年  刘杰  张蓓蓓  孟丽艳 《测绘软科学研究》2014,(2):93-97

综合运用ArcGIS Server技术,网络服务技术等,实现水利方面的水资源管理、防汛抗旱、农田水利等功能。以鹤壁市水利空间信息管理与服务系统为例,详细介绍了系统的设计思想、系统结构与系统功能。  相似文献   

QANAT SYSTEMS IN IRAN     

P. BEAUMONT B.A.  Ph.D. 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):39-50

Abstract

A fuzzy rule-based technique is used for modelling the relationship between climatic forcing and droughts in a Central/Eastern European country, Hungary. Two types of climatic forcing'called premises'are considered: atmospheric circulation patterns (CP) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both the Hess-Brezowsky CP types and ENSO events influence the occurrence of droughts, but the ENSO signal is relatively weak in a statistical sense. The fuzzy rule-based approach is able to learn the high space—time variability of monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and results in a proper reproduction of the empirical frequency distributions. The “engine” of the approach, the fuzzy rules, are ascertained from a subset called the learning set of the observed time series of premises (monthly CP frequencies and Southern Oscillation Index) and PDSI response. Then an independent subset, the validation set, is used to check how the application of fuzzy rules reproduces the observed PDSI.  相似文献