高维PP时间序列分析在地震预报中的应用   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

王琼  朱令人 《地震工程学报》2003,25(2):103-111

将投影寻踪(PP)与高维时间序列分析结合起来，建立了地震PP综合预测模型。并选取祁连山地区作研究区，做了未来三个月内最大震级的短期预测，经展望式检验，合格率(预测误差≤0．5或≤10％)≥80％。中根据实际需要提出建立一定震级门限(M≥4．0)的预测具有更好的效果。本预测模型还可增加自变量、维数和改变时间尺度，并运用到其他领域中。  相似文献   

中国南北地震带北段近期地应力场动态演化特征与地震活动之关系          下载免费PDF全文

陈瑶  张富芳 《地震工程学报》2003,25(2):166-169,174

分析了南北地震带北段多年来应力场的动态变化特征，并结合其他前兆手段观测资料研究了应力场动态变化与地震活动的关系，探讨了应力场变化的动力成因和利用其进行地震预测的可能性。  相似文献   

城市群地震灾害特点与防震减灾对策   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

高孟潭 《中国地震》2003,19(2):103-108

城市群是我国经济迅速发展的产物。我国东部地区已经涌现了大量的城市群。城市群地震灾害比单个城市的地震灾害更为复杂、严重。地震对社会经济的影响更大。本文首次对城市群的地震灾害特点、防震减灾对策进行了系统的讨论，并着重指出了城市群防震减灾研究的重点领域。  相似文献   

依法行政做好防震减灾工作--纪念《中华人民共和国防震减灾法》实施5周年     

阎正萃  张跃平  郄晓芸 《山西地震》2003,(2):1-3

从立法、法制宣传、建立健全规章制度和科学规范的管理程序、公正严格执法、执法监督和法制工作队伍建设等6个方面，论述了做好防震减灾依法行政工作的重要性，指出。只有依法行政，才能保障防震减灾工作的顺利发展。  相似文献   

论如何审核确定抗震设防要求     

郄晓芸  田爱青  阎正萃 《山西地震》2003,(4):2-5

为使县级以上地震部门做好审核建设工程抗震设防要求工作，介绍了确定抗震设防要求的4个依据、程序、重大重要建设工程的划分依据、活动断裂分类与分级规定等。指出，确定抗震设防要求既是一项法定的行政审批工作，又是一项严谨的科学技术工作。  相似文献   

福建省地壳形变观测网建设进展与展望     

丁学仁  史粦华  吴绍祖 《华南地震》2003,23(2):68-72

简述了建设中的福建地壳形变台网的概况，福建地壳形变台网，以GPS观测为主，结合精密重力、水准和流动地磁测量，将三者观测重合到CPS基准站，形成有特色的观测网络。通过福建省5个基准站、16个基本站及一个数据处理中心，动态监测东南沿海地区地壳运动，为地震预测预报提供背景信息。  相似文献   

1995年日本新泻北部M6.0地震及其由地震烈度和地下水地热异常分布所揭示的隐伏地震断层     

徐辉龙 《华南地震》2003,23(4):24-36

1995年日本新泻北部M6.0地震发生在新泻地震空区的东部边缘.由于此次地震震源较浅(10 km),造成了55栋房屋倒塌、165栋房屋半倒.通过计算倾倒墓碑的地震矩,对本区地震烈度进行了分析,发现烈度6度区(据日本JMA度)为一覆盖面积6.1×1 km2,呈NNE-SSW向分布的条带,表明震中区的冲积平原下存在一条隐伏断层.震中区地下水的温度、电导率和Cl-浓度等异常区与呈线性分布的6度烈度区大致吻合,也有力地证明了震中区下面存在一条隐伏断层.这次地震可能是由高压型热水系沿隐伏活动断层喷溢引起.带着高温的高压热水降低了岩石的断裂强度,从而触发了地震.  相似文献   

浅谈地震科技档案鉴定的意义     

吴玉荣  王强 《高原地震》2003,15(4):63-66

地震科技档案鉴定是档案管理部门的一项重要工作。针对地震科技档案鉴定工作的重要意义进行了分析，定期对地震科技档案鉴定有利于优化馆藏、对重点地震科技档案的保管；并对提高档案工作服务水平和档案人员业务素质进行了探讨。  相似文献   

A critical state interpretation for the cyclic liquefaction resistance of silty sands   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

George D. Bouckovalas  Konstantinos I. Andrianopoulos  Achilleas G. Papadimitriou 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2003,23(2):115-125

Contrary to many laboratory investigations, common empirical correlations from in situ tests consider that the increase in the percentage of fines leads to an increase of the cyclic liquefaction resistance of sands. This paper draws upon the integrated Critical State Soil Mechanics framework in order to study this seemingly not univocal effect. Firstly the effect of fines on the Critical State Line (CSL) is studied through a statistical analysis of a large data set of published monotonic triaxial tests. The results show that increasing the content of non-plastic fines practically leads to a clockwise rotation of the CSL in (e–ln p) space. The implication of this effect on cyclic liquefaction resistance is subsequently evaluated with the aid of a properly calibrated critical state elasto-plastic constitutive model, as well as a large number of published experimental results and in situ empirical correlations. Both sets of data show clearly that a fines content, less than about 30% by weight, may prove beneficial at relatively small effective stresses (p₀<50–70 kPa), such as the in situ stresses prevailing in most liquefaction case studies, and detrimental at larger confining stresses, i.e. the stresses usually considered in laboratory tests. To the extent of these findings, a correction factor is proposed for the practical evaluation of liquefaction resistance in terms of the fines content and the mean effective confining stress.  相似文献   

Decoupled seismic analysis of an earth dam   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Ernesto Cascone  Sebastiano Rampello 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2003,23(5):349-365

The seismic stability of an earth dam is evaluated via the decoupled displacement analysis using the accelerograms obtained by ground response analysis to compute the earthquake-induced displacements. The response analysis of the dam is carried out under both 1D and 2D conditions, incorporating the non-linear soil behaviour through the equivalent linear method. Ten artificial and five real accelerograms were used as input motions and four different depths were assumed for the bedrock.1D and 2D response analyses were in a fair agreement with the exception of the top third of the dam where only a 2D modelling of the problem could ensure that the acceleration field is properly described. The acceleration amplification ratio obtained in the 2D analyses was equal to about 2 in all the cases considered, consistently with data from real case histories.The maximum permanent displacements computed by the sliding block analysis were small, being less than 10% of the service freeboard; a satisfactory performance of the dam can then be envisaged for any of the seismic scenarios considered in the analyses.  相似文献