近50年来东莞气温年际变化的长期特征分析   总被引：2，自引：10，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

吴志权  陈明先  陈创买 《热带气象学报》2005,21(1):107-112

运用福建省25个代表站汛期降水量资料，得到了能够反映全省旱涝状况指标，以此指标为预报量，运用相关分析和逐步回归分析方法，从前期海温场、大气环流场中选取了预报因子，并据此建立了福建汛期旱涝的多元线性回归和RBF神经网络预测模型。结果表明，RBF神经网络模型在历史样本拟合精度上、样本交叉检验和模型的实际预测能力上都明显优于传统的线性回归方法，该模型在实际预测中具有良好的应用能力和推广价值。  相似文献   

南极涛动异常及其对冬春季北半球大气环流影响的数值模拟试验   总被引：14，自引：0，他引：14       下载免费PDF全文

范可  王会军 《地球物理学报》2007,50(2):397-403

利用IAP9L-AGCM模式考察了模式中与南极涛动异常相关的海温敏感区，发现南半球高纬海温异常能够强迫出南极涛动异常，而赤道东太平洋海温异常与太平洋南美型密切相关.研究了南极涛动异常对冬春季北半球大气环流及亚洲北部气温的影响，结果表明，南极涛动加强，能够引起北半球高纬环流异常和欧亚西风加强，以及亚洲北部地表气温和850 hPa气温显著增温.数值模拟支持了已有的诊断结果，也证实了冬春季节南极涛动异常下两半球高纬间的经向遥相关存在.  相似文献   

Microbial life in martian ice: A biotic origin of methane on Mars?     

P. Buford Price 《Planetary and Space Science》2010,58(10):1199-1206

Despite the fact that microbial cells are unlikely to be found in the Martian soil in the near future, this paper is written on the assumption that some of the seasonally varying concentration of Martian methane is due to ongoing methanogenesis. It is first pointed out that life might have arisen on Mars first and been transported to Earth later. A case is made that an icy origin of life is more likely than a hot origin, especially if biomolecules take advantage of the high encounter rates and stability against hydrolysis, and that microorganisms feed on the ions that comprise eutectic solutions in ice. Although certain difficulties are avoided if RNA and DNA grow while adsorbed on clay grains, double strand-breaks of microbial DNA due to alpha radioactivity are a far greater threat to microbial survival on clay or other rock types than in ice. Developing a relation between the rate of microbial metabolism in ice and the experimentally determined rate of production of trapped gases of microbial origin, one can estimate the concentration of methanogens that could account for the methane production rate as a function of temperature of their habitat. The result, of order 1 cell cm⁻³ in the Martian subsurface, seems an attainable goal provided samples are taken from at least 1 or 2 m below the hostile surface of Mars. Instruments on NASA’s 2011 Mars Science Lab will measure stable isotopes for methane, water, and carbon dioxide, which on Earth served to distinguish abiotic, thermogenic, and microbial origins. Future measurements of chirality of biomolecules might also provide evidence for Martian life.  相似文献   

The physical simulation of wave groups and their variations in a wave flume     

LIU Si  ZHANG Yongliang  LIU Shuxue  LI Jinxuan  XIA Zhisheng 《海洋学报(英文版)》2013,32(11):68-73

The physical simulation method of wave groups in a wave flume is proposed and verified by the exper- iments. The experimental results demonstrate that random waves with desired wave groupiness, which simultaneously includes the wave group height and length, can be generated satisfactorily at the specified position in a wave flume using the proposed method. Furthermore, the transformation properties of the wave groupiness along the fiat-bottomed wave flume are investigated based on the physically simulated waves. Associated proposals with the physical simulation of wave groups are given.  相似文献   

Observed winds,turbulence, and dispersion in built-up downtown areas of Oklahoma City and Manhattan   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Steven Hanna  John White  Ying Zhou 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2007,125(3):441-468

Wind and tracer data from the Oklahoma City Joint Urban 2003 (JU2003) and the Manhattan Madison Square Garden 2005 (MSG05) urban field experiments are being analyzed to aid in understanding air flow and dispersion near street-level in built-up downtown areas. The mean winds are separately calculated for groups of anemometers having similar exposures such as “near street level” and “on building top”. Several general results are found, such as the scalar wind speed at street level is about 1/3 of that at building top. Turbulent standard deviations of wind speed components and temperature, and vertical fluxes of momentum and sensible heat, are calculated from sonic anemometers near street level at 20 locations in JU2003 and five locations in MSG05, and from two rooftop locations in MSG05. The turbulence observations are consistent with observations in the literature at other cities, although the JU2003 and MSG05 data are unique in that many data are available near street level. For example, it is found that the local (i.e., at the measuring height) averages about 1.5 and the local averages about 0.25 in the two cities, where is the standard deviation of vertical velocity fluctuations, is the friction velocity, and u is the wind speed. The ratio of temperature fluctuations to temperature scale, , averages about −3 in both cities, consistent with similarity theory for slightly unstable conditions, where is the standard deviation of temperature fluctuations, and is the temperature scale. The calculated Obukhov length, L, is also consistent with slightly unstable conditions near street level, even at night during JU2003. The SF₆ tracer concentration observations from JU2003 are analyzed. Values of for the continuous releases are calculated for each release and arc distance, where is the 30-min average arc maximum concentration, Q is the continuous source emission rate, and u is the spatial-averaged wind speed in the downtown area. The basic characteristics of the JU2003 plot of averaged agree reasonably well with similar plots for other urban experiments in Salt Lake City and London (i.e., at . A is found to be about 3 during the day and about 10 during the night.  相似文献   

应用KDD技术分析气象地质灾害与降水的关系     

彭贵芬  段旭  舒康宁  周毅 《气象科技》2007,35(2):252-257

应用人工智能技术——数据库中知识发现(KDD)技术,分析研究发生在云南省境内造成重大损失的气象地质灾害的发生与当日及前期降水的关系。结果表明,绝大多数气象地质灾害都是由强降水诱发的,云南气象地质灾害与发生当日及前期降水的关系主要有3种类型,即暴雨诱发型、多日中大雨诱发型和连阴雨诱发型。所得到的云南气象地质灾害与当日及前期降水的定量关系,为云南地质灾害的气象监测、预报模式的建立提供了依据。  相似文献   

Saving lives in earthquakes: successes and failures in seismic protection since 1960   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Robin Spence 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2007,5(2):139-251

This paper will look at what we have and have not achieved in reducing the risks to human life from earthquakes in the last 50 years. It will review how success has been achieved in a few parts of the world, and consider what needs to be done by the scientific and engineering community globally to assist in the future task of bringing earthquake risks under control. The first part of the talk will re-examine what we know about the casualties from earthquakes in the last 50 years. Almost 80% of about 1 million deaths turn out to have been caused by just ten great earthquakes, together affecting a tiny proportion of the territory at risk from heavy ground shaking. The disparity between richer and poorer countries is also evident, not only in fatality rates, but also in their rates of change. But the existing casualty database turns out to be a very poor basis for observing such differences, not only because of the small number of lethal events, but also because of the very limited data on causes of death, types and causes of injury. These have been examined in detail in only a few, recent events. All that can be said with certainty is that a few wealthier earthquake-prone countries or regions have made impressive progress in reducing the risk of death from earthquakes, while most of the rest of the world has achieved comparatively little, and in some areas the problem has become much worse. The second part of the paper looks in more detail at what has been achieved country-by-country. Based on a new expert-group survey of key individuals involved in earthquake risk mitigation, it will examine what are perceived to be the successes and failures of risk mitigation in each country or group of countries. This survey will be used to highlight the achievements of those countries which have successfully tackled their earthquake risk; it will examine the processes of earthquake risk mitigation, from campaigning to retrofitting, and it will consider to what extent the achievement is the result of affluence, scientific and technical activity, political advocacy, public awareness, or the experience of destructive events. It will ask to what extent the approaches pioneered by the global leaders can be adopted by the rest. The final section of the talk will argue that it can be useful to view earthquake protection activity as a public health matter to be advanced in a manner similar to globally successful disease-control measures: it will be argued that the key components of such programmes—building in protection; harnessing new technology and creating a safety culture—must be the key components of earthquake protection strategies also. It will consider the contribution which the scientific and engineering community can make to bringing down today’s unacceptably high global earthquake risk. It will be suggested that this role is wider than commonly understood and needs to include: Building-in protection

•	Improving and simplifying information available for designers and self-builders of homes and infrastructure.
•	Devising and running “building for safety” programmes to support local builders.

Harnessing new technologies

•	Developing and testing cost-effective techniques for new construction and retrofit.

Creating a safety culture

•	Involvement in raising public awareness.
•	Political advocacy to support new legislation and other actions.
•	Prioritising action on public buildings, especially schools and hospitals.

Examples of some of these actions will be given. International collaboration is essential to ensure that the resources and expertise available in the richer countries is shared with those most in need of help. And perhaps the most important single task for the engineering community is work to counter the widespread fatalistic attitude that future earthquakes are bound to be at least as destructive as those of the past.  相似文献   

H<Emphasis Type="Italic">α</Emphasis> survey of the local volume: Isolated southern galaxies     

S. S. Kaisin  A. V. Kasparova  A. Yu. Knyazev  I. D. Karachentsev 《Astronomy Letters》2007,33(5):283-291

We present our Hα observations of 11 isolated southern galaxies: SDIG, PGC 51659, E 222-010, E 272-025, E 137-018, IC 4662, Sag DIG, IC 5052, IC 5152, UGCA 438, and E 149-003, with distances from 1 to 7 Mpc. We have determined the total Hα fluxes from these galaxies. The star formation rates in these galaxies range from 10^?1 (IC 4662) to 10^?4 M _⊙ yr^?1 (SDIG) and the gas depletion time at the observed star formation rates lies within the range from 1/6 to 24 Hubble times H ₀ ^?1 .  相似文献   

陕北奥陶纪盐盆的区域成矿地质条件分析   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

陈文西  袁鹤然 《地质学报》2010,84(11):1565-1575

本文以鄂尔多斯盆地陕北奥陶纪岩盐为主要研究对象,在深入分析以往岩盐的成因机制和充分利用前人的研究资料基础上,从区域古气候、古地理、古构造和岩相古地理方面综合分析认为,奥陶纪时期,陕北盐盆能够发育巨厚岩盐,并且岩盐沉积时的卤水达到钾石盐至光卤石的阶段,是由有利于成盐的干旱古气候条件,有利于蒸发岩发育的半封闭的区域构造、地质条件,以及区域上有利于氯化物盐类迁移富集的预备盆地发育的区域岩相古地理条件共同作用的结果。  相似文献   

海南福基田幔源辉石结构OH与氢氧同位素     

张保民  张晓黎  狄敬茹  叶德隆 《地质科技情报》2010,29(3)

采用IR光谱和质谱技术分析了海南福基田幔源巨晶和包体中辉石的结构羟基红外光谱和氢氧同位素。测试的所有巨晶普通辉石和包体中透辉石及顽火辉石均含结构OH,对比印证了国内外同类矿物的红外光谱特征。结构水质量分数分别是:普通辉石87×10-6~389×10-6;透辉石127×10-6~273×10-6;顽火辉石69×10-6~207×10-6。包体中结构水质量分数为1 811×10-6~5 377×10-6,平均为3 133×10-6。包体中辉石的氢氧同位素特征如下:透辉石的δ(D)为-123.17‰,顽火辉石的δ(D)为-132.04‰;透辉石的δ(18O)为5.96‰,顽火辉石的δ(18O)为5.60‰。实验和对比表明,辉石是海南福基田上地幔重要的"水储库",包体未受地壳成分污染,继承和保持了上地幔"富水贫氘"的特征。上述结果为该地区上地幔研究提供了结构水和氢氧同位素的基础资料。  相似文献